Terra Projects

The upcoming winter is based on the double nina with an el nino, cold pdo. This happened in 1951-1952, 1972-1973 1976-1977, 2009-2010. I posted on this matter for Steve and the crucial aspect will be the center of the warm water in the central Pacific and enough spike in the PDO warm ( thats right it has to spike warm) so we get the maximum pressure falls in the areas of the Pacific we want them, then the rises over N America. In 1951-1952 the cold PDO completely overwhelmed the pattern and we had an el nino winter that looked like La Nina. In 72-73 it was half and half and a great winter in the south, a non winter in the northeast. I think 51-52 will be thrown out of the mix when push comes to shove, but 72-73 has to be watched. There are 4 kinds of el nino winters out of the 15 plus we have had, and the analogs I have now have whittled the candidates to 4. Incidentally the hurricane season forecast had the 57 and 86 analogs in it. Both were fast starting with Texas hits including cat 4 Audrey in 1957 and Cat 1/2 Bonnie in 1986

Now to what I was going to say. We are going to get our wish here over the coming 20 years to test our theories on the oceans and suns. If there is not the type of response to at least a fall off to where we were in the 1970s, then it does open the door for the idea that the co2 might have something to do with it. But for my side of the debate, with the stacking of the deck we just went through with the sun and oceans ( of course the sun since the little ice age, the oceans periodically also) it means we should be able to see if we are completely right.. mostly right… or there are doubts. I think Steve will be putting something I wrote on this matter in rebuttal to Dr Masters in a while.

By the way, the winter forecast snowfall right now, for all reading this, asks you to take your snowfall in the winters of 02-03,05-05,06-07, 09-10 and see what you come up with as an average and that is where I am . We have the nation 2-4 below normal. This is certainly not as bad as the late 70s, but would certainly be one heck of a winter. But if you live lets say in Ohio, look at those years and average them and I think that is where you will be in relation to normal.