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Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Phénomènes Climatiques en rapport avec le Soleil. Le cycle 24 devrait être faible, voici une question majeure sur l'influence climatique de notre prochaine decennie.

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 16 sept. 2022, 03:29

4 région(s) active(s) RA 3098 , 3100 , 3102 , 3103 et 31 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 112 / 10 observatoires
NOAA -> 71
SWPC -> 78
Flux solaire -> 140
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13096 [N18W32] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13098 [N19W64] decayed losing both area and spots with the most rapid decay observed in the trailing spots section. The magnetic delta disappeared and only weak polarity intermixing was observed by the end of the day. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 14:23 UT
Region 13100 [S24W05] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13102 [S27E48] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7843 [N13W27] was quiet and stable.
S7858 [N13W63] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7860 [S16E19] was quiet and stable.
S7862 [S18E05] was quiet and stable.
New region S7869 [N27E09] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7870 [N11E00] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7871 [S03W32] emerged with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 17 sept. 2022, 03:55

4 région(s) active(s) RA 3098 , 3100 , 3102 , 3103 et 24 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 84 / 10 observatoires
NOAA -> 64
SWPC -> 70
Flux solaire -> 130
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13096 [N18W42] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13098 [N19W78] decayed slowly and was much less active than during the previous days. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 02:35, C1.5 @ 11:36, C1.6 @ 17:00, C1.7 @ 21:44, C1.7 @ 23:34 UT
Region 13100 [S20W20] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13102 [S27E35] was mostly quiet and stable.
New region 13103 [S16E07] was first observed on September 10 with SWPC numbering the region 5 days later as new flux emerged. Many spots formed and the region is fairly compact with what may be a weak magnetic delta in the central northern part.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7843 [N13W38] was quiet and stable.
S7858 [N13W76] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7869 [N27W02] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7870 [N12W12] was quiet and stable.
New region S7872 [S20E60] emerged with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 18 sept. 2022, 03:50

3 région(s) active(s) RA 3100 , 3102 , 3103 et 46 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 86 / 12 observatoires
NOAA -> 76
SWPC -> 83
Flux solaire -> 132
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13096 [N18W57] was quiet and stable.
Region 13098 [N20W82] rotated mostly out of view and produced 2 major flares. C1 flares: C1.7 @ 02:11, C1.9 @ 05:53, C1.5 @ 15:25 UT
Region 13100 [S20W32] decayed slowly early in the day, then new flux emerged to the east of the largest leader spot.
Region 13102 [S27E23] developed gaining many spots as new flux emerged in the trailing spot section. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 23:44, C1.7. at 00:04 (on September 17) UT.
Region 13103 [S16W08] gained some spots, however, no mature penumbra was observed on any spots. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 01:05, C1.8 @ 02:40 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7862 [S17W24] reemerged with a tiny spot.
S7872 [S19E37] was quiet and stable.
New region S7873 [N10W17] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7874 [S13W23] emerged with tiny spots.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 19 sept. 2022, 03:39

2 région(s) active(s) RA 3100 , 3102 et 31 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 68 / 15 observatoires
NOAA -> 51
SWPC -> 56
Flux solaire -> 136
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13100 [S24W32] developed early in the day, then decayed slowly. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 18:43, C1.6 @ 23:19 UT
Region 13102 [S27E11] developed in the trailing spot section. C1 flare: C1.4 @ 19:34 UT
Region 13103 [S16W21] decayed slowly and quietly.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7870 [N10W38] reemerged with one spot.
S7874 [S12W37] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7875 [N32E31] was observed with a tiny spot in an old plage region.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 20 sept. 2022, 04:24

4 région(s) active(s) RA 3100 , 3102 , 3103 , 3104 et 34 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 68 / 19 observatoires
NOAA -> 74
SWPC -> 81
Flux solaire -> 128
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13100 [S24W59] decayed slowly and was mostly quietly
Region 13102 [S26W01] gained some spots and produced many C flares. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 02:49, C1.5 @ 04:20, C1.1 @ 05:44, C1.2 @ 10:54, C1.5 @ 11:30, C1.7 @ 12:32, C1.8 @ 13:38 UT
Region 13103 [S16W33] decayed slowly and quietly.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7862 [S17W48] reemerged with a few spots.
S7874 [S12W51] developed slowly and quietly.
S7875 [N32E19] was quiet and stable.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 21 sept. 2022, 03:36

4 région(s) active(s) RA 3100 , 3102 , 3105 , 3106 et 30 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 65 / 21 observatoires
NOAA -> 70
SWPC -> 77
Flux solaire -> 136
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13100 [S24W74] decayed losing all trailing spots.
Region 13102 [S27W13] displayed signs of slow decay and was less active than during the previous days. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 10:38, C1.7 @ 11:49, C1.2 @ 15:15 UT
New region 13104 [S12W66] emerged on September 16 and was numbered 3 days later by SWPC as the region began to decay.
New region 13105 [S16E74] rotated into view as a compact region with many spots. M class flares are possible. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 17:01, C1.5 @ 19:36 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7875 [N33E07] was quiet and stable.
New region S7877 [S12E66] emerged to the northwest of AR 13105.
New region S7878 [N08W64] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7879 [N16W62] emerged with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 22 sept. 2022, 04:15

5 région(s) active(s) RA 3102 , 3105 , 3106 , 3107 , 3108 et 20 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 84 / 18 observatoires
NOAA -> 70
SWPC -> 77
Flux solaire -> 137
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13102 [S27W27] decayed slowly and continued to produce C and M class flares.
Region 13105 [S16E61] is a relatively compact region and appears to have a small magnetic delta in a southern penumbra. C and M class flares are possible. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 01:31, C1.9 @ 02:25 UT
New region 13106 [S11E50] emerged on September 19 and was numbered the following day by SWPC. C1 flares: C1.7 @ 08:47 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7862 [S17W78] reemerged with small spots while near the southwest limb.
New region S7881[S12E32] emerged with several spots and has polarity intermixing.
New region S7882 [S22E77] rotated into view with a few spots. C flares and maybe M class flares are possible. C1 flare: C1.4 @ 22:04 UT
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 23 sept. 2022, 03:45

5 région(s) active(s) RA 3102 , 3105 , 3107 , 3108 , 3109 et 49 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 105 / 18 observatoires
NOAA -> 99
SWPC -> 109
Flux solaire -> 137
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13102 [S27W40] decayed slowly and was quiet after producing a few small flares early in the day.
Region 13105 [S16E48] gained area and may be capable of producing a major flare. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 02:36, C1.7 @ 18:24, C1.6 @ 18:58 UT
Region 13106 [S11E36] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 13107 [S23E62] rotated into view on September 20 and was numbered by SWPC the next day. Further M class flares are possible. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 01:19, C1.7 @ 11:05, C1.4 @ 12:50, C1.3 @ 14:03, C1.5 @ 21:35 UT
New region 13108 [S12E17] emerged on September 20 with SWPC numbering the region the following day. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 19:27 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
New region S7883 [N10E01] emerged with several spots and could soon produce C flares.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 24 sept. 2022, 03:46

6 région(s) active(s) RA 3102 , 3105 , 3107 , 3108 , 3109 , 3110 et 51 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 114 / 16 observatoires
NOAA -> 111
SWPC -> 122
Flux solaire -> 146
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13102 [S27W53] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 15:55 UT
Region 13105 [S16E35] has M class flare potential, however, only minor polarity intermixing is currently observed. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 09:51, C1.8 @ 10:24, C1.8 @ 13:11, C1.7 @ 20:28 UT
Region 13107 [S22E48] was mostly unchanged and produced several C flares. M class flares are possible. C1 flares: C1.7 @ 04:37, C1.8 @ 10:36, C1.9 @ 13:45, C1.7 @ 20:20, C1.8 @ 00:03 (on September 23) UT
Region 13108 [S12E03] developed slowly and quietly.
New region 13109 [N10W12] emerged on September 21 and received its NOAA number the next day as the region developed further. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 03:56, C1.5 @ 05:17, C1.3 @ 07:13, C1.7 @ 08:47, C1.9 @ 18:27 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
New region S7884 [N17E84] began to rotate into view late in the day and appears to an emerging region with C class flare potential. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 21:03, C1.5 @ 22:17, C1.2 @ 23:06 UT
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 25 sept. 2022, 03:45

6 région(s) active(s) RA 3102 , 3105 , 3107 , 3108 , 3109 , 3110 et 68 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 133 / 12 observatoires
NOAA -> 128
SWPC -> 141
Flux solaire -> 147
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13102 [S27W67] decayed slowly and produced a few C flares.
Region 13105 [S16E22] decayed in the leading spot section as the largest penumbra split into smaller penumbrae and lost area. The region was mostly quiet.
Region 13107 [S23E38] developed significantly and gained many spots in the trailing spot section. There is quite a bit of polarity intermixing and M flares are possible.
Region 13108 [S12W10] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13109 [N09W26] developed slowly and produced a few C flares.
New region 13110 [N17E71] rotated into view on September 22 and developed quickly on September 23. The region is compact and has a magnetic delta structure. Further M class flares are possible. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 02:38, C1.8 @ 12:41 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
New region S7885 [N12W10] emerged early in the day, then decayed slowly after noon.
New region S7886 [N30E15] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7887 [N20E23] emerged with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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