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Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Phénomènes Climatiques en rapport avec le Soleil. Le cycle 24 devrait être faible, voici une question majeure sur l'influence climatique de notre prochaine decennie.

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Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 01 juil. 2022, 03:47

3 région(s) active(s) RA 3040, 3042 , 3045 et 10 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 47 / 24 observatoires
NOAA -> 40
SWPC -> 44
Flux solaire -> 96
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

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Region 13040 [S13W38] was mostly quiet and stable. There is still minor polarity intermixing to the north of the main spot.
Region 13042 [N09W32] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13043 [S13E08] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13044 [S20W02] decayed slowly and quietly.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7656 [N16W01] reemerged with tiny spots.
S7661 [S10E39] developed further as new flux emerged.
S7663 [S30W19] was quiet and stable.
New region S7664 [S27E24] was observed with a tiny spot in an old plage area.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 02 juil. 2022, 03:43

3 région(s) active(s) RA 3040, 3045 , 3046 et 9 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 64 / 21 observatoires
NOAA -> 39
SWPC -> 43
Flux solaire -> 98
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image
n 71.5 s 92.9

Region 13040 [S13W51] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13042 [N09W45] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13043 [S13W07] was quiet and stable.
Region 13044 [S20W12] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 13045 [S10E26] emerged on July 28 and was numbered by SWPC 2 days later as the region began to decay.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7656 [N15W14] was quiet and stable.
S7663 [S29W32] was quiet and stable.
New region S7665 [N18E76] rotated into view with a single spot.
New region S7666 [S20E36] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7667 [S29W20] was observed with a tiny spot in an old plage area.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 03 juil. 2022, 03:29

Moyennes provisoires juin 2022
WDC silso -> 70.6
NOAA SSN -> 73.5
Star SDO MSN 1k -> 92.9
Flux solaire -> 116.1
Index Ap -> 8.4
Eruption solaire -> 181 C : 3 M et 0 X
vent solaire -> max 810 km/s mini 274 km/s
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 03 juil. 2022, 03:37

4 région(s) active(s) RA 3040, 3046 , 3047 , 3048 et 17 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 69 / 18 observatoires
NOAA -> 57
SWPC -> 63
Flux solaire -> 100
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13040 [S13W63] gained some trailing spots and was quiet.
Region 13042 [N09W59] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13043 [S15W18] was quiet and stable.
Region 13045 [S10E13] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 13046 [N17E62] rotated into view on June 30 and was numbered the next day by SWPC.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7666 [S19E19] developed as new flux emerged with lots of small spots observed.
New region S7668 [S08E49] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7669 [S11E74] rotated into view with a small spot.
New region S7670 [N16E05] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7671 [S31E35]was observed with a tiny spot in an old plage area.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 04 juil. 2022, 04:11

3 région(s) active(s) RA 3046 , 3047 , 3049 et 12 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 60 / 16 observatoires
NOAA -> 42
SWPC -> 46
Flux solaire -> 102
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13040 [S13W78] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13043 [S16W27] was quiet and stable.
Region 13045 [S10E01] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13046 [N17E48] was quiet and stable.
New region 13047 [S19E05] emerged on June 30 and was numbered by SWPC 2 days later as the region began to decay.
New region 13048 [S08E36] emerged on July 1. SWPC numbered the region the next day as it was decaying slowly.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7669 [S12E62] developed slowly and quietly.
S7671 [S32E22] was quiet and stable.
New region S7672 [N27E54] emerged with several tiny spots.
New region S7673 [N18E58] emerged with a few spots trailing AR 13046.
New region S7674 [S23E15] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7675 [S38W46] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 05 juil. 2022, 03:27

6 région(s) active(s) RA 3045 ,3046 , 3047 , 3049 , 3050 , 3051 et 19 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 62 / 18 observatoires
NOAA -> 79
SWPC -> 87
Flux solaire -> 104
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13043 [S14W41] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13045 [S10W11] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13046 [N17E35] was quiet and stable.
Region 13047 [S19W11] was quiet and stable.
Region 13048 [S09E20] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 13049 [S12E49] emerged on July 1 and was numbered 2 days later by SWPC as the region began to decay.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7672 [N27E40] displayed signs of decay early in the day, then began to develop again.
S7673 [N17E44] was quiet and stable.
New region S7676 [N21W41] emerged with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 06 juil. 2022, 03:24

7 région(s) active(s) RA 3045 ,3046 , 3047 , 3049 , 3051 , 3052 , 3053 et 22 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 81 / 20 observatoires
NOAA -> 92
SWPC -> 101
Flux solaire -> 115
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13045 [S10W24] was quiet and stable.
Region 13046 [N18E22] was quiet and stable.
Region 13047 [S19W20] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13049 [S12E38] was quiet and stable gaining a trailing spot.
New region 13050 [N18E30] emerged on July 2 with SWPC numbering the region on July 4 as slow decay was observed. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 11:54, C1.2 @ 12:29 UT.
New region 13051 [N27E27] emerged on July 2 with SWPC waiting 2 days to assign the region a number.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
New region S7677 [N15E69] emerged with several spots.
New region S7678 [S15E09] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7679 [N14E84] rotated partly into view with a large spot. M class flares are possible. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 22:26 and C1.1 @ 22:45 UT. The region was the source of a C9.88 flare at 04:07 UT on July 5.
New region S7680 [S32E22] emerged with tiny spots in an old plage area.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 07 juil. 2022, 05:16

7 région(s) active(s) RA 3046 , 3047 , 3048 , 3051 , 3052 , 3053 , 3054 et 28 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 85 / 20 observatoires
NOAA -> 98
SWPC -> 107
Flux solaire -> 115
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13046 [N17E09] was quiet and stable.
Region 13047 [S19W31] decayed slowly and produced the largest C flare of the day.
Region 13049 [S13E26] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13050 [N18E18] decayed slowly and was somewhat unstable producing a few small C flares. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 09:11 UT
Region 13051 [N28E16] was quiet and stable.
New region 13052 [N15E54] emerged on July 4 and was numbered by SWPC the next day. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 11:37 UT
New region 13053 [N14E72] rotated into view on July 4 and displayed several trailing spots the next day and was numbered by SWPC. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 01:17, C1.3 @ 02:13, C1.5 @ 02:35, C1.2 @ 03:05, C1.1 @ 08:06, C1.3 @ 09:02, C1.1 @ 10:09, C1.2 @ 10:57 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7678 [S15W04] was quiet and stable.
New region S7681 [S30W00] emerged before noon. While the initial spot disappeared, another one emerged.
New region S7682 [N21W13] emerged with several spots.
New region S7683 [N18W25] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7684 [N41W20] was observed with a tiny spot in an old plage area.
New region S7685 [S13E67] rotated into view with a single, tiny spot.
New region S7686 [S18E14] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 08 juil. 2022, 04:05

6 région(s) active(s) RA 3046 , 3051 , 3052 , 3053 , 3054 , 3055 et 28 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 95 / 12 observatoires
NOAA -> 88
SWPC -> 97
Flux solaire -> 124
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13046 [N17W03] displayed signs of decay and was quiet.
Region 13047 [S20W43] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13049 [S14E10] was quiet and stable.
Region 13050 [N18E02] was quiet and stable.
Region 13051 [N28E02] was quiet and stable.
Region 13052 [N15E41] was quiet and stable
Region 13053 [N15E59] developed in the trailing spot section. An M class flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 03:56, C1.1 @ 04:43 UT
New region 13054 [N21W28] emerged on June 5 and was numbered the next day by SWPC as the region began to decay.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7683 [N18W38] was quiet and stable.
S7686 [S23E03] was quiet and stable.
New region S7687 [S18E77] rotated into view with a few spots.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 09 juil. 2022, 03:40

5 région(s) active(s) RA 3046 , 3051 , 3052 , 3053 , 3055 et 31 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 93 / 20 observatoires
NOAA -> 81
SWPC -> 90
Flux solaire -> 130
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13046 [N18W17] gained a trailing polarity spot while the main umbra fragmented into smaller umbrae.
Region 13047 [S18W55] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13049 [S13W02] was quiet and stable.
Region 13051 [N28W11] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 13052 [N15E28] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13053 [N14E47] developed further in the trailing spot section. Weak polarity intermixing is present in several parts of the region. The region was mostly quiet, however, a major flare is possible.
Region 13054 [N20W40] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 13055 [S18E61] rotated into view on July 6 with relatively small spots. The region developed significantly on July 7 when it was numbered by SWPC. There is a chance for C flares and possibly a minor M class flare. C1 flare: C1.5 @ 01:29 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
New region S7689 [N21W02] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7690 [S20E36] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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