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Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Phénomènes Climatiques en rapport avec le Soleil. Le cycle 24 devrait être faible, voici une question majeure sur l'influence climatique de notre prochaine decennie.

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 06 sept. 2022, 03:50

5 région(s) active(s) RA 3089 , 3092 , 3093 , 3094 , 3095 et 29 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 81 / 15 observatoires
NOAA -> 79
SWPC -> 87
Flux solaire -> 130
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13089 [S22W72] lost some area as it approached the southwest limb. Fewer magnetic delta structures were observed as well, however, there is still a chance of a major flare. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 11:16, C1.9 @ 14:55, C1.8 @ 18:06, C1.8 @ 22:52 UT
Region 13092 [S10E27] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13093 [S27E30] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13094 [N20E53] was mostly quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7821 [N18W53] reemerged with a tiny spot.
S7822 [N21W21] developed slowly and quietly.
S7831 [N26E18] reemerged with tiny spots.
S7834 [S21E08] was quiet and stable.
New region S7836 [S13W30] emerged with a few spots.
New region S7837 [N24W35] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7838 [N15E40] emerged with tiny spots.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 07 sept. 2022, 04:25

4 région(s) active(s) RA 3092 , 3093 , 3094 , 3096 et 16 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 78 / 24 observatoires
NOAA -> 56
SWPC -> 62
Flux solaire -> 126
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13089 [S22W83] rotated partly out of view producing many C flares and one minor M class flare. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 06:04, C1.6 @ 06:43, C1.6 @ 10:21, C1.6 @ 20:57, C1.8 @ 23:08 UT
Region 13092 [S10E14] produced a single C flare and was mostly unchanged.
Region 13093 [S27E03] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13094 [N20E40] was quiet and stable.
New region 13095 [S13W42] emerged on September 4 and was numbered by SWPC the next day.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7822 [N21W34] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7831 [N28W07] was quiet and stable.
S7837 [N24W48] developed slowly and quietly.
S7838 [N17E21] was quiet and stable.
New region S7839 [S11E28] emerged with several spots to the east of AR 13092.
New region S7840 [N16E42] emerged with several spots to the south of AR 13094.
New region S7841 [N18E82] rotated into view with mature spots. C1 flare: C1.7 @ 13:52 UT
New region S7842 [S23E73] rotated into view with a small spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 08 sept. 2022, 03:37

5 région(s) active(s) RA 3092 , 3093 , 3094 , 3096 , 3097 et 23 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 95 / 19 observatoires
NOAA -> 73
SWPC -> 80
Flux solaire -> 126
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13092 [S10E00] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13093 [S27W09] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13094 [N20E28] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 13096 [N18E69] rotated into view on September 5 and was numbered by SWPC the next day. The region is developing and could produce C flares.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7822 [N20W48] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7837 [N25W62] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7839 [S11E16] developed slowly and quietly.
S7840 [N17E29] decayed slowly and quietly. C1 flare: C1.6 @ 01:03 UT
S7842 [S24E59] was quiet and stable.
New region S7843 [N13E78] rotated into view with a small spot.
New region S7844 [N16E47] emerged with several spots after noon.
New region S7845 [ S09E57] emerged with a small spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 09 sept. 2022, 03:40

5 région(s) active(s) RA 3092 , 3094 , 3096 , 3097 , 3098 et 25 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 87 / 16 observatoires
NOAA -> 75
SWPC -> 83
Flux solaire -> 127
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13092 [S10W12] decayed slowly and was quiet.
Region 13094 [N19E14] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flare: C1.0 @ 22:48 UT
Region 13096 [N18E59] developed further and produced a few minor C flares. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 15:54, C1.0 @ 17:15, C1.1 @ 18:04, C1.1 @ 23:53 UT
New region 13097 [S11E02] emerged on September 5 and was numbered by SWPC 2 days later.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7840 [N17E17] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7842 [S24E46] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7843 [N13E64] was quiet and stable.
S7844 [N17E32] was quiet and stable.
New region S7846 [S19W33] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7847 [N32W11] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7848 [S24E17] emerged with tiny spots.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 10 sept. 2022, 03:36

5 région(s) active(s) RA 3092 , 3094 , 3096 , 3097 , 3098 et 22 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 87 / 21 observatoires
NOAA -> 72
SWPC -> 79
Flux solaire -> 12
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13092 [S10W26] was quiet and stable.
Region 13092 [S29W33] reemerged with tiny spots.
Region 13094 [N20E01] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 07:10 UT
Region 13096 [N18E45] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13097 [S11W12] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 13098 [N17E19] emerged on September 6 and was numbered 2 days later by SWPC as many new spots formed. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 09:47, C1.1 @ 13:19, C1.0 @ 15:53, C1.1 @ 20:02 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7842 [S26E34] was quiet and stable.
S7843 [N13E50] was quiet and stable.
New region S7849 [N15W12] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7850 [S24E78] rotated partly into view with tiny spots. C1 flare: C1.2 @ 17:29, C1.1 @ 17:54 UT
New region S7851 [S27W22] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7852 [S26E34] emerged with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 11 sept. 2022, 03:39

8 région(s) active(s) RA 3092 , 3094 , 3096 , 3097 , 3098 , 3099 , 3100 , 3101 et 42 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 112 / 15 observatoires
NOAA -> 122
SWPC -> 134
Flux solaire -> 136
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13092 [S10W26] was quiet and stable.
Region 13092 [S29W33] reemerged with tiny spots.
Region 13094 [N20E01] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 07:10 UT
Region 13096 [N18E45] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13097 [S11W12] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 13098 [N17E19] emerged on September 6 and was numbered 2 days later by SWPC as many new spots formed. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 09:47, C1.1 @ 13:19, C1.0 @ 15:53, C1.1 @ 20:02 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7842 [S26E34] was quiet and stable.
S7843 [N13E50] was quiet and stable.
New region S7849 [N15W12] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7850 [S24E78] rotated partly into view with tiny spots. C1 flare: C1.2 @ 17:29, C1.1 @ 17:54 UT
New region S7851 [S27W22] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7852 [S26E34] emerged with a tiny spot
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 12 sept. 2022, 04:05

7 région(s) active(s) RA 3092 , 3094 , 3096 , 3098 , 3099 , 3100 , 3101 et 43 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 113 / 24 observatoires
NOAA -> 113
SWPC -> 124
Flux solaire -> 152
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13092 [S09W52] was quiet and stable.
Region 13094 [N20W24] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13096 [N18E20] decayed slowly and quietly losing all mature penumbra.
Region 13097 [S11W40] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13098 [N19W10] developed gaining spots and area despite splitting off AR S7858. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 07:03, C1.1 @ 07:21 UT
New region 13099 [N12E32] emerged on September 9 and was numbered by SWPC the following day later as the region began to decay.13101
New region 13100 [S24E51] rotated into view on September 8 and was numbered by SWPC 2 days later as the region gained spots and area. The region has polarity intermixing and a minor M class flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 02:09, C1.2 @ 07:46, C1.6 @ 21:57 UT
New region 13101 [N29W55] emerged with many small spots. C flares are possible.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7842 [S25E07] was quiet and stable as a leader spot reemerged.
S7843 [N12E26] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S7857 [N23W06] emerged to the north of AR 13098 and caused parts of CH1098 to close.
New region S7858 [N15W08] was split off from AR 13098.
New region S7859 [N19W43] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7860 [S17E74] rotated into view with tiny spots. C1 flare: C1.9 @ 09:02 UT
New region S7861 [S02E33] emerged near equator with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 13 sept. 2022, 03:50

8 région(s) active(s) RA 3092 , 3094 , 3096 , 3097 , 3098 , 3099 , 3100 , 3101 et 37 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 140 / 21 observatoires
NOAA -> 117
SWPC -> 129
Flux solaire -> 150
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13092 [S09W65] was quiet and stable.
Region 13094 [N19W40] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13096 [N18E07] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13097 [S11W55] decayed slowly and quietly until late in the day when new flux emerged.
Region 13098 [N20W23] developed fairly quickly and has a magnetic delta in the leading spot section. M class flaring is possible.
Region 13099 [N12E19] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 02:37 UT
Region 13100 [S23E37] gained spots and was mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 05:27 UT
Region 13101 [N29W70] developed further and has polarity intermixing. C flares are possible.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7842 [S25W04] was quiet and stable.
S7843 [N13E12] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7857 [N23W20] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7858 [N15W20] was quiet and stable.
S7860 [S17E61] was quiet and stable.
New region S7862 [S19E44] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7863 [S21E26] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7864 [S21W23] emerged with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 14 sept. 2022, 04:17

6 région(s) active(s) RA 3092 , 3096 , 3097 , 3098 , 3100 , 3102 et 33 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 108 / 10 observatoires
NOAA -> 93
SWPC -> 102
Flux solaire -> 152
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13092 [S10W80] was quiet and stable.
Region 13096 [N18W05] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13097 [S12W68] developed further and was quiet.
Region 13098 [N19W38] developed further and could produce M class flares.
Region 13099 [N11E05] was quiet and stable.
Region 13100 [S24E22] was mostly quiet and stable, the magnetic layout is fairly simple.
Region 13101 [N29W83] developed further and rotated partly out of view. The region produced many C flares and could manage M class flares while at and just behind the northwest limb.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7842 [S26W16] was quiet and stable.
S7843 [N12W02] was quiet and stable.
S7857 [N24W32] was quiet and stable.
S7858 [N15W35] was quiet and stable.
S7860 [S17E48] was quiet and stable.
S7862 [S18E32] developed slowly and quietly.
New region S7865 [S27E76] rotated into view with a large mature leader spot.
New region S7866 [N11W35] emerged with tiny spots.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 15 sept. 2022, 04:00

3 région(s) active(s) RA 3098 , 3100 , 3102 et 27 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 92 / 10 observatoires
NOAA -> 57
SWPC -> 63
Flux solaire -> 144
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13096 [N17W19] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13098 [N19W51] developed slowly and still has a magnetic delta in a leading polarity penumbra. M class flares are possible.
Region 13100 [S24E08] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13101 [N31W85] rotated mostly out of view with only the easternmost spot being visible at the end of the day.
New region 13102 [S27E61] rotated into view on September 12 and was numbered the next day by SWPC. C and M class flares are possible.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7842 [S24W28] was quiet and stable.
S7843 [N13W12] was quiet and stable.
S7858 [N13W49] developed slowly and quietly.
S7860 [S17E35] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7862 [S18E19] developed slowly and quietly.
New region S7867 [N31E08] emerged with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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