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Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Phénomènes Climatiques en rapport avec le Soleil. Le cycle 24 devrait être faible, voici une question majeure sur l'influence climatique de notre prochaine decennie.

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 19 avr. 2022, 04:18

5 région(s) active(s) RA 2990 , 2991, 2992 , 2993 , 2994 et 29 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 100 / 19 observatoires
NOAA -> 79
SWPC -> 87
Flux solaire -> 135
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 12987 [S29W73] developed further with a magnetic delta forming within a central penumbra. Note that SWPC has this as AR 12992, however, this faulty region numbering is the result of inaccurate coordinate tracking of AR 12987. Further M class flares are possible as the region rotates over the southwest limb.
Region 12990 [N16W08] was quiet and stable.
Region 12991 [S24E27] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12993 [N20E62] was active early in the day and became mostly quiet after the M1.8 flare. Further M class flares are likely. The region measures 20 degrees in longitudinal extension.
Region 12994 [N13E67] is a complex region with a significant magnetic delta in the largest trailing spot. Further major flares are possible.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7496 [S25E01] was quiet and stable.
S7504 [N19W17] was quiet and stable.
New region S7505 [S15E58] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage region.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 20 avr. 2022, 03:16

4 région(s) active(s) RA 2991, 2993 , 2994 , 2995 et 28 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 91 / 26 observatoires
NOAA -> 68
SWPC -> 75
Flux solaire -> 135
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 12987 [S31W84] rotated partly out of view but could produce further M class flares while just behind the southwest limb. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 15:55 UT
Region 12989 [N19W07] reemerged with a tiny spot.
Region 12990 [N16W22] was quiet and stable.
Region 12991 [S24E14] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12993 [N20E49] decayed slightly in the easternmost spot section. There's polarity intermixing in the western and central parts of the region and a major flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 06:25 UT
Region 12994 [N13E54] was significantly less active than during the previous days as the trailing penumbra delta disappeared. A weak magnetic delta formed in a small penumbra to the west of the large trailing penumbra. A major flare is possible.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7505 [S16E40] was quiet and stable.
New region S7506 [N12E84] rotated into view with a single large spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 21 avr. 2022, 03:28

5 région(s) active(s) RA 2991, 2993 , 2994 , 2995 , 2996 et 30 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 93 / 25 observatoires
NOAA -> 80
SWPC -> 88
Flux solaire -> 160
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 12989 [N19W20] was quiet and stable.
Region 12990 [N16W34] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12991 [S24E01] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12993 [N20E35] produced one M flare and could have major flare potential. Polarities are intermixed.
Region 12994 [N13E41] was the source of one M flare and has major flare potential.
New region 12995 [N12E69] rotated into view on April 18 and was numbered by SWPC the next day.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7505 [S16E27] was quiet and stable.
New region S7507 [N23E80] rotated into view with a single spot.

AR 12987 was very active at and behind the southwest limb producing multiple M flares. The region was the source of 2 major flares early on April 20, an M7.2 flare at 01:36 and an X2.2 flare at 03:57 UT. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 00:40 UT
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 22 avr. 2022, 03:39

5 région(s) active(s) RA 2991, 2993 , 2994 , 2995 , 2996 et 69 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 102 / 20 observatoires
NOAA -> 119
SWPC -> 131
Flux solaire -> 164
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 12989 [N20W28] was quiet and stable.
Region 12991 [S24W10] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12993 [N20E22] decayed slowly and produced several C flares. Polarities are intermixed. A major M9.6 flare was recorded at 01:59 UT on April 21. If there was a CME associated with this event, there will be a strong chance of a significant geomagnetic disturbance.
Region 12994 [N13E28] has major flare potential and continued producing occasional C flares.
Region 12995 [N12E56] was quiet and stable.
New region 12996 [N23E68] rotated into view on April 19 and was numbered by SWPC the next day.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7505 [S17E13] was quiet and stable.
New region S7508 [N06W25] emerged with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 24 avr. 2022, 03:39

7 région(s) active(s) RA 2991, 2993 , 2994 , 2995 , 2996 , 2997 , 2998 et 48 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 123 / 18 observatoires
NOAA -> 118
SWPC -> 130
Flux solaire -> 160
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 12991 [S23W34] was quiet and stable.
Region 12993 [N20W03] decayed slowly and became less active after the M3 flare after noon. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 08:23, C1.6 @ 16:34, C1.4 @ 22:46 UT
Region 12994 [N13E01] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 20:28 UT (uncertain as there was simultaneous activity in a region at the southeast limb).
Region 12995 [N13E29] was quiet and stable.
Region 12996 [N23E42] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 11:40 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7505 [S15W14] was quiet and stable.
S7510 [N25E61] was quiet and stable.
New region S7511 [N11E75] rotated into view with tiny spots.
New region S7512 [N38E24] emerged at a high latitude with tiny spots.
New region S7513 [S20E11] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.
New region S7514 [S15W14] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7515 [S20E41] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 25 avr. 2022, 03:22

7 région(s) active(s) RA 2991, 2993 , 2994 , 2995 , 2996 , 2997 , 2998 et 40 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 121 / 19 observatoires
NOAA -> 110
SWPC -> 121
Flux solaire -> 159
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 12991 [S22W49] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12993 [N20W18] decayed slowly producing small C flares. There's a weak magnetic delta structure in a penumbra to the north of the main penumbrae. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 02:40, C1.9 @ 06:04, C1.2 @ 08:04, C1.1 @ 09:52, C1.2 @ 20:53, C1.4 @ 21:49, C1.2 @ 23:12, C1.5 @ 23:54 UT
Region 12994 [N14W11] was mostly unchanged and produced some low level C flares. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 07:07, C1.3 @ 16:13 UT.
Region 12995 [N14E17] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12996 [N25E29] was quiet and stable.
New region 12997 [N12E64] rotated into view on April 22 and was numbered the next day by SWPC.
New region 12998 [S20E67] rotated into view early in the day.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7505 [S15W29] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7510 [N27E48] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7515 [S18E27] was quiet and stable.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 26 avr. 2022, 03:26

6 région(s) active(s) RA 2993 , 2994 , 2995 , 2996 , 2997 , 2999 et 34 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 110 / 13 observatoires
NOAA -> 94
SWPC -> 103
Flux solaire -> 157
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 12991 [S22W62] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12993 [N20W31] decayed further with fragmentation of the main penumbral area and several small spots disappearing. The region was active early on April 25 producing a long duration M1.2 flare peaking at 02:00 and an impulsive M1.2 flare at 04:02 UT.
Region 12994 [N14W25] decayed slowly but could still produce M flares. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 09:30, C1.3 @ 17:16 UT.
Region 12995 [N14E03] gained many small spots and was mostly quiet.
Region 12996 [N26E17] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12997 [N12E50] was quiet and stable.
Region 12998 [S20E65] was quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7505 [S14W43] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7510 [N27E35] was quiet and stable.
S7515 [S17E13] was quiet and stable.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 27 avr. 2022, 04:22

8 région(s) active(s) RA 2993 , 2994 , 2995 , 2996 , 2997 , 2999 , 3000 , 3001 et 46 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 122 / 18 observatoires
NOAA -> 126
SWPC -> 139
Flux solaire -> 150
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 12993 [N20W43] decayed slowly, however, a small patch of emerging flux was observed in the trailing spots area. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 07:50, C1.6 @ 08:53, C1.4 @ 10:50, C1.2 @ 12:12, C1.2 @ 12:55, C1.2 @ 14:37 UT.
Region 12994 [N14W39] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 12995 [N14W11] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12996 [N26E05] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 12997 [N12E38] was quiet and stable.
Region 12998 [S20E50] decayed slowly and quietly. Note that SWPC has assigned a new number (12999) to the region due to the faulty initial location of AR 12998. For data consistency the original number is used in this report.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7510 [N25E22] was quiet and stable.
S7513 [S20W21] reemerged with tiny spots.
S7515 [S22W02] was quiet and stable.
New region S7518 [S10E73] rotated into view with a tiny spot.
New region S7519 [S17E82] rotated into view with a single spot.
New region S7520 [S31E85] rotated partly into view with a single spot. C1 flares: C1.7 @ 06:28, C1.4 @ 10:24 UT.
New region S7521 [S30E38] was observed with a tiny spot in an old plage area.
New region S7522 [S17W38] emerged with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 28 avr. 2022, 05:15

7 région(s) active(s) RA 2993 , 2994 , 2995 , 2997 , 2999 , 3000 , 3001 et 25 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 130 / 19 observatoires
NOAA -> 95
SWPC -> 105
Flux solaire -> 142
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 12993 [N20W58] decayed further and was mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 20:54 UT
Region 12994 [N14W54] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 12995 [N14W24] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 12996 [N25W09] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12997 [N12E26] developed slowly and was quiet.
Region 12998 [S20E38] was quiet and stable. Note that SWPC has assigned a new number (12999) to the region due to the faulty initial location of AR 12998. For data consistency the original number is used in this report.
New region 13000 [S17E70] rotated into view on April 25 and was numbered the next day by SWPC.
New region 13001 [S31E74] rotated into view on April 25 and received its NOAA number the next day. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 19:10 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7510 [N25E09] was quiet and stable.
S7513 [S26W37] was quiet and stable.
S7515 [S19W13] was quiet and stable.
S7518 [S10E60] was quiet and stable.
S7521 [S28E22] was quiet and stable.
New region S7523 [S05W31] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7524 [N14E57] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7525 [N31E79] rotated into view with a single small spot.
New region S7526 [S15E58] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7527 [N25E47] emerged with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 29 avr. 2022, 03:36

8 région(s) active(s) RA 2993 , 2994 , 2995 , 2997 , 2999 , 3000 , 3001, 3002 et 38 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 131 / 16 observatoires
NOAA -> 118
SWPC -> 130
Flux solaire -> 132
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 12993 [N20W71] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12994 [N14W67] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 04:05 UT
Region 12995 [N14W38] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 19:11 UT
Region 12996 [N25W20] decayed slowly and produced several C flares.
Region 12997 [N12E09] developed slowly and was quiet.
Region 12998 [S20E25] was quiet and stable. Note that SWPC has assigned a new number (12999) to the region due to the faulty initial location of AR 12998. For data consistency the original number is used in this report.
Region 13000 [S17E58] decayed slowly and quietly losing mature penumbra.
Region 13001 [S31E61] was quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7510 [N25W02] was quiet and stable.
S7518 [S10E48] was quiet and stable.
S7521 [S28E08] was quiet and stable.
S7524 [N14E40] was quiet and stable.
S7525 [N31E65] developed slowly and quietly.
New region S7529 [S14E78] rotated into view with a few spots.
New region S7530 [S13E12] emerged with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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