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Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Phénomènes Climatiques en rapport avec le Soleil. Le cycle 24 devrait être faible, voici une question majeure sur l'influence climatique de notre prochaine decennie.

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 09 avr. 2022, 03:57

4 région(s) active(s) RA 2978 , 2981, 2983 , 2985 et 15 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 48 / 11 observatoires
NOAA -> 55
SWPC -> 61
Flux solaire -> 109
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

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Region 12978 [S17W67] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12981 [S23W62] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12982 [S22W28] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12983 [N21W32] saw minor flux emergence in the leading polarity section and gained a few spots.
Region 12985 [S20E18] developed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 01:31 UT
New region 12987 [S31E48] rotated into view on April 4 and was numbered 3 days later by SWPC.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 10 avr. 2022, 04:27

3 région(s) active(s) RA 2978 , 2983 , 2985 et 7 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 37 / 22 observatoires
NOAA -> 37
SWPC -> 41
Flux solaire -> 107
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

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Region 12978 [S17W80] decayed slowly. The region was quiet early on, however, a slow increase in activity was noted after noon and during the first half of April 9 with several C flares occurring.
Region 12981 [S22W78] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12983 [N22W47] gained spots as more flux emerged in the leading polarity area. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 11:21, C1.0 @ 17:29 UT
Region 12985 [S21E04] gained tiny spots and was quiet.
Region 12987 [S31E36] was quiet and stable.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 11 avr. 2022, 03:30

1 région(s) active(s) RA 2983 et 3 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 18 / 22 observatoires
NOAA -> 13
SWPC -> 14
Flux solaire -> 101
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

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Region 12983 [N22W58] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 12985 [S21W08] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12987 [S30E22] decayed slowly and quietly.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 12 avr. 2022, 03:46

2 région(s) active(s) RA 2983 , 2988 et 4 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 11 / 17 observatoires
NOAA -> 24
SWPC -> 26
Flux solaire -> 99
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

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Region 12983 [N22W72] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12985 [S21W19] decayed slowly and quietly.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 13 avr. 2022, 04:37

2 région(s) active(s) RA 2988 , 2989 et 3 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 12 / 19 observatoires
NOAA -> 23
SWPC -> 25
Flux solaire -> 96
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 12985 [S22W32] was quiet and stable.
Region 12987 [S31W07] reemerged with a tiny spot.
New region 12988 [N15E51] emerged on April 10 and was numbered the next day by SWPC as the region developed slowly.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7479 [N14W87] developed slowly as it rotated to the northwest limb.
S7483 [S13W07] was mostly quiet and stable. A sigmoid shaped filament in the southern part of the region erupted early in the day and was recorded as a long duration C1.6 event peaking at 05:21 UT.
S7484 [N23W18] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S7489 [N35E12] emerged before noon with a couple of tiny spots, then decayed slowly.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 14 avr. 2022, 03:24

3 région(s) active(s) RA 2988 , 2989 , 2990 et 7 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 31 / 15 observatoires
NOAA -> 37
SWPC -> 41
Flux solaire -> 99
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 12985 [S22W49] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12987 [S32W11] was quiet and stable.
Region 12988 [N15E38] developed early in the day, then decayed slowly after noon.
New region 12989 [N18E74] rotated into view at the northeast limb.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7483 [S14W21] was quiet and stable.
S7484 [N25W23] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S7491 [N10W29] emerged after noon with tiny spots. Polarities are reversed and this may be an SC24 group.
New region S7492 [S18E07] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 15 avr. 2022, 04:01

3 région(s) active(s) RA 2989 , 2990 , 2991 et 7 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 37 / 25 observatoires
NOAA -> 37
SWPC -> 41
Flux solaire -> 103
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image
Region 12987 [S31W21] gained a few spots and was quiet.
Region 12988 [N15E26] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12989 [N18E59] was quiet and stable.
New region 12990 [N15E48] emerged with a few spots.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7483 [S14W35] was quiet and stable.
S7488 [S13E28] reemerged with a few spots
S7492 [S29W08] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S7493 [S24E78] rotated into view with a single, mature spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 16 avr. 2022, 03:33

3 région(s) active(s) RA 2989 , 2990 , 2991 et 5 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 41 / 17 observatoires
NOAA -> 35
SWPC -> 39
Flux solaire -> 110
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 12987 [S32W31] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 12989 [N18E45] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12990 [N15E33] developed further and was quiet.
New region 12991 [S24E65] rotated into view on April 13 and was numbered the next day by SWPC.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7483 [S13W45] was quiet and stable.
S7488 [S13E13] was quiet and stable.
New region S7494 [S15W05] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7495 [N05E43] emerged with tiny spot and is likely an SC24 group.
New region S7496 [S27E45] was observed with a tiny spot in an old plage area.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 17 avr. 2022, 04:05

6 région(s) active(s) RA 2989 , 2990 , 2991, 2992 , 2993 , 2994 et 18 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 51 / 22 observatoires
NOAA -> 78
SWPC -> 86
Flux solaire -> 122
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 12987 [S30W47] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12988 [N15W02] reemerged with tiny spots.
Region 12989 [N18E31] was quiet and stable.
Region 12990 [N15E19] decayed slightly and was quiet.
Region 12991 [S24E52] was quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7488 [S13E01] was quiet and stable.
S7489 [N34W35] reemerged with a tiny spot.
S7496 [S26E28] was quiet and stable.
New region S7498 [N24W22] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7499 [S12W41] emerged with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 18 avr. 2022, 04:40

5 région(s) active(s) RA 2990 , 2991, 2992 , 2993 , 2994 et 24 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 78 / 19 observatoires
NOAA -> 74
SWPC -> 81
Flux solaire -> 135
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 12987 [S30W60] developed as new flux emerged. Note that SWPC has this as AR 12992, however, this faulty region numbering is the result of inaccurate tracking (coordinates) of AR 12987.
Region 12989 [N18E19] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12990 [N16E07] was quiet and stable.
Region 12991 [S24E39] was quiet and stable.
New region 12993 [N21E74] rotated into view and has a large leader spot. Further M class flaring is likely.
New region 12994 [N13E77] rotated partly into view and is a complex region capable of producing major flares. The region was the source of an X1.1 flare at 03:34 UT on April 17.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7496 [S26E15] was quiet and stable.
New region S7502 [S22E38] emerged early in the day just north of the leader spot of AR 12991. Slow decay was observed after noon.
New region S7503 [S29W01] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7504 [N22W03] emerged with tiny spots.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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