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Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Phénomènes Climatiques en rapport avec le Soleil. Le cycle 24 devrait être faible, voici une question majeure sur l'influence climatique de notre prochaine decennie.

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 07 juin 2022, 04:35

4 région(s) active(s) RA 3023 , 3024 , 3027 , 3029 et 5 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 38 / 21 observatoires
NOAA -> 45
SWPC -> 50
Flux solaire -> 96
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13023 [S13W81] was quiet and stable.
Region 13024 [S33W69] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13027 [S17W52] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13029 [S17E48] was mostly quiet and stable. Two C flares were recorded near noon in the southern part of the region, that part appears to contain no spots. A CME off the southeast limb was observed after the flares. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 12:00, C1.7 @ 12:25 UT.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7609 [S28E11] was quiet and stable.
New region S7619 [S12W67] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7620 [N19W53] emerged with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 09 juin 2022, 03:52

SPOTLESS
WDC Silso -> 00 / 12 observatoires
NOAA -> 00
SWPC -> 00
Flux solaire -> 100
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13024 [S33W82] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13027 [S17W67] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13029 [S17E34] was quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7608 [N24W37] reemerged with a tiny spot.
S7609 [S29E02] was quiet and stable.
S7619 [S12W82] decayed slowly early in the day, then new flux emerged late in the day. Several B flares were recorded late in the day and early on June 7.
New region S7621 [S19W56] emerged with several spots.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 10 juin 2022, 03:36

1 région(s) active(s) RA 3029 et 7 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 23 / 20 observatoires
NOAA -> 17
SWPC -> 19
Flux solaire -> 106
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html


Image

Region 13029 [S21E19] was quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7609 [S32W18] was quiet and stable.
New region S7622 [S17E01] emerged rapidly after noon and could produce C and minor M class flares.
New region S7623 [S21E62] was observed with a tiny spot in an old plage area.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 11 juin 2022, 03:41

2 région(s) active(s) RA 3029 , 3030 et 13 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 54 / 16 observatoires
NOAA -> 33
SWPC -> 36
Flux solaire -> 111
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html#

Image

Region 13029 [S21E07] gained many tiny spots in the trailing polarity section and was quiet. Note that SWPC has moved AR 13029 westwards to the position of AR S7622.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7609 [S35W25] was quiet and stable.
S7622 [S17W12] developed early in the day, then decayed slowly.
New region S7624 [N20E76] rotated into view early in the day and developed slowly. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 03:39, C1.7 @ 08:59 UT
New region S7625 [N19W01] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7626 [N21E86] rotated partly into view late in the day and has M class flare potential. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 10:18, C1.1 @ 11:17 UT
New region S7627 [N18E14] emerged with tiny spots.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 12 juin 2022, 04:31

3 région(s) active(s) RA 3029 , 3030 , 3031 et 11TS observées
WDC Silso -> 42 / 17 observatoires
NOAA -> 41
SWPC -> 45
Flux solaire -> 112
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13028 [N14W28] reemerged with a tiny spot.
Region 13029 [S23W02] decayed slowly and quietly. Note that SWPC has moved AR 13029 westwards to the position of AR S7622.
New region 13030 [N20E62] rotated into view early on June 9 and developed slowly that day. Slow decay was observed on June 10. For unknown reasons SWPC seems to have included the spots of AR S7626 in this group.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7609 [S27W50] was quiet and stable.
S7622 [S16W27] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7626 [N20E74] was unstable during the first half of the day producing several C flares and one M class flare. C1 flare: C1.1 @ 03:21 UT
S7627 [N19E01] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S7628 [S13E37] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.
New region S7629 [N18E48] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.
New region S7630 [S27E50] emerged with tiny spots
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par FredTDF » 12 juin 2022, 09:34

Le cycle solaire dépasse les prévisions

https://www.laterredufutur.com/accueil/ ... revisions/
Winter is Coming.
"Le but de la politique est de garder la population inquiète et donc en demande d'être mise en sécurité, en la menaçant d'une série ininterrompue de monstres, tous étant imaginaires" : Mencken journaliste américain du XXeme siècle.

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 13 juin 2022, 03:34

4 région(s) active(s) RA 3030 , 3031 ,3032 , 3033 et 23 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 58 / 26 observatoires
NOAA -> 63
SWPC -> 69
Flux solaire -> 121
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Minor update added at 16:55 UT on June 12: Two sunspot groups are rotating into view at the east limb, one was located at S18E83 at 16:15 UT. The other sunspot group is highly unusual as the leader spot is a mature spot and was located at N00E84 at 16:15 UT. The location of AR S7634 strongly suggests a cycle 24 group. Spots this large belonging to the previous cycle are exceptionally unusual at this stage of the current cycle, however, we will have to await that the region rotates into better view to be certain it is an SC24 group. Both groups with images have been added to the active region table.

Image

Region 13029 [S23W21] decayed slowly and quietly. Note that SWPC has moved AR 13029 westwards to the position of AR S7622.
Region 13030 [N20E49] gained small spots and was mostly quiet. For unknown reasons SWPC seems to have included the spots of AR S7626 in this group.
New region 13031 [S27E35] emerged on June 10 and was numbered the next day by SWPC.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7609 [S25W68] was quiet and stable.
S7622 [S17W41] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7626 [N20E59] developed slowly late on June 11 with more significant development observed early on June 12. Should the current rate of development continue the region could form a magnetic delta. C1 flare: C1.2 @ 14:10 UT
S7628 [S17E28] was quiet and stable.
S7629 [N18E34] was quiet and stable.
New region S7631 [N16E80] rotated into view with a tiny spot. Either this region or another at the northeast limb was the source of a C1.3 flare at 22:27 UT.
New region S7632 [N17W03] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7633 [S38W29] emerged with tiny spots.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 14 juin 2022, 03:58

6 région(s) active(s) RA 3030 , 3031 ,3032 , 3033 , 3034 ,3035 et 35 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 99 / 16 observatoires
NOAA -> 95
SWPC -> 105
Flux solaire -> 132
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13029 [S23W21] was quiet and stable. Note that SWPC has moved AR 13029 westwards to the position of AR S7622.
Region 13030 [N19E37] was quiet and stable.
Region 13031 [S26E20] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 13032 [N20E47] rotated into view on June 9 and was numbered by SWPC as they finally realized their initial misinterpretation. The region developed all day and has polarity intermixing. The region was the source of a long duration M3.4 flare peaking at 04:07 UT. A significant CME was likely produced with this event, however, analysis awaits the availability of relevant LASCO imagery. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 06:16, C1.3 @ 07:03, C1.8 @ 08:42, C1.5 @ 22:10 UT.
New region 13033 [N16E66] rotated into view on June 11 and developed slowly. Further C flares are possible. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 19:47, C1.3 @ 20:08 UT.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7609 [S23W81] gained a few tiny spots and was quiet.
S7622 [S18W52] was quiet and stable.
S7623 [S21E27] was quiet and stable.
S7628 [S15E17] was quiet and stable.
S7629 [N17E17] was quiet and stable.
New region S7634 [N00E81] began to rotate into view near noon and is a very unusual region in that the leader spot extends both into the northern and southern hemisphere. This equatorial sunspot group is likely an SC24 group, highly surprising considering that the solar minimum is 2.5 years in the past. C flares are possible.
New region S7635 [S18E80] rotated into view at noon and was mostly quiet.
New region S7636 [S13W28] emerged before noon, then decayed slowly.
New region S7637 [N17E02] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7638 [S13W11] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7639 [N11W09] emerged with tiny spots inside CH1081.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 15 juin 2022, 05:00

7 région(s) active(s) RA 3030 , 3031 ,3032 , 3033 , 3034 ,3035 ,3036 et 51 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 131 / 21 observatoires
NOAA -> 121
SWPC -> 133
Flux solaire -> 146
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13029 [S23W21] was quiet and stable. Note that SWPC has moved AR 13029 westwards to the position of AR S7622.
Region 13030 [N19E23] decayed early in the day, then developed slowly as new flux emerged in the central parts. C1 flare: C1.1 @ 23:32 UT
Region 13031 [S28E10] decayed slowly before noon, then developed quickly as new flux emerged in the southeastern part of the region. C and M class flaring is possible. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 16:51, C1.4 @ 18:37, C1.3 @ 20:35 UT
Region 13032 [N20E32] decayed slowly after the M3 flare, however, further M class flares may be possible
Region 13033 [N16E53] gained spots and was mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 01:28, C1.2 @ 17:42 UT
New region 13034 [N01E68] rotated into view on June 12 and was numbered by SWPC the next day. The region decayed slightly in the trailing spot section and was quiet. This is likely an SC24 group.
New region 13035 [S18E67] rotated into view on June 12 and was numbered by SWPC the next day. The region was quiet.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7623 [S21W01] was quiet and stable.
S7628 [S16E09] was quiet and stable.
S7629 [N18E08] was quiet and stable.
S7636 [S13W41] gained spots and area and could produce C flares.
S7637 [N17W12] was quiet and stable.
New region S7640 [N22E43] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7641 [S19E32] was observed with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 16 juin 2022, 03:45

8 région(s) active(s) RA 3030 , 3031 ,3032 , 3033 , 3034 ,3035 ,3036 , 3037 et 69 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 159 / 23 observatoires
NOAA -> 149
SWPC -> 164
Flux solaire -> 140
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13030 [N19E07] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 04:52 UT
Region 13031 [S26W03] developed fairly quickly and has gained 2 magnetic delta structures in the trailing and central spot sections. M class flaring is possible. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 02:03, C1.5 @ 06:49, C1.2 @ 07:18, C1.7 @ 09:44, C1.7 @ 12:36, C1.5 @ 16:08, C1.7 @ 17:08, C1.2 @ 22:45 UT
Region 13032 [N20E19] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 08:52 UT
Region 13033 [N17E41] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 13034 [N01E54] was quiet and stable. This is likely an SC24 group.
Region 13035 [S18E52] was quiet and stable.
New region 13036 [S12W54] emerged on June 12 and was numbered by SWPC 2 days later. The region developed further on June 14 and could produce a minor M class flare. There's polarity intermixing in the southern part of the trailing spot section. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 16:02 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7623 [S20W13] developed and gained mature penumbra on one spot.
S7628 [S17W05] was quiet and stable.
S7629 [N18W05] was quiet and stable.
New region S7642 [N13E83] rotated partly into view with a tiny spot.
New region S7643 [N12E02] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7644 [N07W07] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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