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Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Phénomènes Climatiques en rapport avec le Soleil. Le cycle 24 devrait être faible, voici une question majeure sur l'influence climatique de notre prochaine decennie.

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 19 mai 2022, 03:59

7 région(s) active(s) RA, 3007 , 3010 , 3014 , 3015 , 3016 , 3017 , 3018 et 77 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 131 / 20 observatoires
NOAA -> 147
SWPC -> 162
Flux solaire -> 180
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image


Region 13007 [S22W49] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13008 [N19W47] was quiet and stable.
Region 13010 [S17E22] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13011 [N19E11] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13013 [S26W10] was quiet and stable.
Region 13014 [N22E30] developed further and has magnetic delta within both of the 2 main penumbrae. The region is compact and complex and could produce a major flare.
Region 13015 [N13E27] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13016 [S18E60] was quiet and stable.
Region 13017 [N14E57] was quiet and stable.
New region 13018 [S11E54] emerged on May 16 and was numbered by SWPC the next day.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7568 [N15W25] decayed slowly and quietly.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 20 mai 2022, 03:28

8 région(s) active(s) RA, 3007 , 3010 , 3014 , 3015 , 3016 , 3017 , 3018 , 3019 et 74 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 143 / 11 observatoires
NOAA -> 154
SWPC -> 169
Flux solaire -> 173
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html


Image

Region 13007 [S22W49] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13010 [S16W05] gained a few spots as new flux emerged near the center of the region causing polarity intermixing.
Region 13011 [N18W12] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13013 [S26W23] was quiet and stable.
Region 13014 [N22E18] developed further and has significant magnetic deltas within both of the 2 main penumbrae. A major flare is possible.
Region 13015 [N14E13] was quiet and stable.
Region 13016 [S18E47] was quiet and stable.
Region 13017 [N12E41] was quiet and stable.
Region 13018 [S11E40] decayed slowly and quietly.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
New region S7577 [N17E36] emerged after noon with numerous small spots and produced a single C flare.
New region S7578 [N11E82] rotated partly into view producing several C flares. It is not yet clear whether this is one or two spot groups.

Minor update added at 15:30 UT on May 19: A complex event began in AR S7577 at 06:32 UT and first peaked as a C7.8 flare at 06:43. The flare then triggered an event which spanned AR S7577 and 13017 and culminated in a major M5.6 flare at 07:19 UT. A faint CME was observed, but it is uncertain if the major flare was the source. AR 13014 was the source of an M1.5 flare at 10:09 and an M1.1 flare at 15:16 UT.

What may have been a weak solar wind shock was observed at DSCOVR at 13:22 UT.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 21 mai 2022, 03:52

7 région(s) active(s) RA, 3007 , 3010 , 3014 , 3015 , 3016 , 3017 , 3019 et 39 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 133 / 11 observatoires
NOAA -> 109
SWPC -> 120
Flux solaire -> 166
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13007 [S22W77] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13010 [S16W18] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13011 [N19W16] was quiet and stable.
Region 13013 [S26W36] was quiet and stable.
Region 13014 [N22E06] developed slowly and has multiple magnetic deltas within the huge penumbra. A major flare is possible.
Region 13015 [N14W00] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13016 [S19E32] was quiet and stable.
Region 13017 [N13E22] gained spots and is being considered for a split into two active regions. The region was strongly involved in the major flare shared with nearby AR S7577.
Region 13018 [S10E27] was quiet and stable.
New region 13019 [N12E69] rotated into view on May 18 and was numbered the next day by SWPC.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7577 [N16E21] was involved in the sequence of events leading to the only major flare of the day. A complex event began in this region at 06:32 UT and first peaked as a C7.8 flare at 06:43. The flare then triggered an event which spanned AR S7577 and 13017 and culminated in a major M5.6 flare at 07:19 UT
New region S7579 [N21E48] was observed with a single tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 22 mai 2022, 04:31

7 région(s) active(s) RA 3010 ,3011 , 3014 , 3015 , 3016 , 3017 , 3019 et 30TS observées
WDC Silso -> 152 / 16 observatoires
NOAA -> 100
SWPC -> 110
Flux solaire -> 166
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13010 [S16W31] decayed in the leading and trailing spot section. New flux emerged in the central spot section where some development was observed.
Region 13011 [N19W29] developed slowly as new flux emerged.
Region 13014 [N22W08] is a large and complex spot group with multiple magnetic deltas within the huge penumbral area. An X class flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 09:30 UT
Region 13015 [N14W12] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13016 [S19E19] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13017 [N14E15] has many small spots spread over a large area. The region became better defined than it has been over the last days and was merged with AR S7577, however, there is still significant polarity intermixing.
Region 13018 [S10E13] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13019 [N12E59] gained some area and has only small spots.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
New region S7580 [S12E59] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 09:25 UT
New region S7581 [S21E83] rotated into view with a single, mature spot.
New region S7582 [S30W11] emerged with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 23 mai 2022, 03:37

9 région(s) active(s) RA 3010 ,3011 , 3014 , 3015 , 3016 , 3017 , 3019 , 3020 ,3021 et 45TS observées
WDC Silso -> 166 / 15 observatoires
NOAA -> 135
SWPC -> 149
Flux solaire -> 165
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13010 [S16W44] decayed slowly producing a couple of C flares. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 19:06 UT
Region 13011 [N19W44] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13014 [N22W21] was mostly quiet despite being a large and complex spot group with multiple magnetic deltas. An X class flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 04:35 UT
Region 13015 [N15W28] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13016 [S18E05] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13017 [N14W00] gained spots and area and could produce an M flare.
Region 13018 [S11W03] was quiet and stable.
Region 13019 [N12E47] developed slowly in the trailing spots section and was quiet.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7579 [N16E15] reemerged with tiny spots.
S7580 [S13E46] was quiet and stable.
S7581 [S21E70] was quiet and stable.
New region S7583 [N17W42] emerged with several spots just south of AR 13011.
New region S7584 [N13E82] rotated into view with small spots.
New region S7585 [N13E61] emerged with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 24 mai 2022, 03:40

8 région(s) active(s) RA 3010 ,3011 , 3014 , 3016 , 3017 , 3019 , 3020 ,3021 et 52TS observées
WDC Silso -> 149 / 15 observatoires
NOAA -> 132
SWPC -> 145
Flux solaire -> 158

Image

Region 13010 [S16W57] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13011 [N19W58] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.7 @ 19:13 UT
Region 13014 [N22W33] decayed slowly and produced a few small C flares. The region is still a large and complex spot group with multiple magnetic deltas. An X class flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 01:26, C1.6 @ 22:11, C1.9 @ 22:30 UT
Region 13015 [N15W40] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13016 [S18W07] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13017 [N12W15] developed significantly in the leading spot section and has polarity intermixing. M class flaring is possible. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 10:12 UT
Region 13019 [N14E33] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 13:54 UT
New region 13020 [S21E58] rotated into view on May 20 and was numbered by SWPC 2 days later.
New region 13021 [N12E70] rotated into view on May 21 and got its NOAA number the next day. Slow development was observed on May 22.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7580 [S16E36] was quiet and stable.
S7583 [N16W56] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S7586 [S27W56] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7587 [N30E21] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 25 mai 2022, 04:03

9 région(s) active(s) RA 3010 ,3011 , 3014 , 3016 , 3017 , 3019 , 3020 ,3021, 3022 et 47 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 146 / 24 observatoires
NOAA -> 137
SWPC -> 151
Flux solaire -> 147
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13010 [S16W73] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13011 [N19W71] was quiet and stable.
Region 13014 [N22W47] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. The region is still a large and complex spot group with multiple magnetic deltas. An X class flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.7 @ 19:24, C1.8 @ 22:22 UT
Region 13016 [S18W20] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13017 [N12W31] decayed slowly and produced a few C flares. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 04:14, C1.8 @ 08:08 UT
Region 13019 [N13E20] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13020 [S21E45] was quiet and stable.
Region 13021 [N12E57] was mostly quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7583 [N16W71] was quiet and stable.
New region S7588 [S18W49] emerged before noon with a few spots.
New region S7589 [S14W17] emerged before noon and decayed slowly during the latter half of the day.
New region S7590 [S14W07] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7591 [S08E71] rotated into view with a small spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 26 mai 2022, 03:50

7 région(s) active(s) RA 3014 , 3017 , 3020 ,3021, 3022 , 3023 , 3024 et 23 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 109 / 14 observatoires
NOAA -> 93
SWPC -> 102
Flux solaire -> 137
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html


Image

Region 13014 [N22W60] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. The region still has multiple magnetic deltas. A major flare is still possible. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 02:01 UT
Region 13016 [S17W34] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13017 [N11W45] was mostly quiet and stable. The region has a small magnetic delta.
Region 13019 [N14E06] decayed further and was quiet.
Region 13020 [S21E32] was quiet and stable.
Region 13021 [N13E41] was quiet and stable.
New region 13022 [S08E58] rotated into view on May 23 and was numbered the next day by SWPC.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7580 [S14E08] reemerged with tiny spots.
S7588 [S18W64] was quiet and stable.
New region S7592 [S14E78] rotated into view before noon with two mature spots inside a large penumbra.
New region S7593 [S33E80] rotated into view with a mature spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 27 mai 2022, 04:10

7 région(s) active(s) RA 3014 , 3017 , 3019 ,3020 ,3021 , 3023 , 3024 et 17 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 81 / 15 observatoires
NOAA -> 87
SWPC -> 96
Flux solaire -> 123
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13014 [N22W60] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. The region still has multiple magnetic deltas. A major flare is still possible. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 02:01 UT
Region 13016 [S17W34] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13017 [N11W45] was mostly quiet and stable. The region has a small magnetic delta.
Region 13019 [N14E06] decayed further and was quiet.
Region 13020 [S21E32] was quiet and stable.
Region 13021 [N13E41] was quiet and stable.
New region 13022 [S08E58] rotated into view on May 23 and was numbered the next day by SWPC.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7580 [S14E08] reemerged with tiny spots.
S7588 [S18W64] was quiet and stable.
New region S7592 [S14E78] rotated into view before noon with two mature spots inside a large penumbra.
New region S7593 [S33E80] rotated into view with a mature spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 28 mai 2022, 03:52

6 région(s) active(s) RA 3017 , 3019 ,3020 ,3021 , 3023 , 3024 et 9 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 58 / 18 observatoires
NOAA -> 69
SWPC -> 76
Flux solaire -> 114
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13014 [N22W87] rotated partly out of view and was quiet after noon. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 10:07 UT
Region 13017 [N11W76] decayed quickly in the trailing spot section and lost the magnetic delta. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 13:19, C1.7 @ 19:21 UT
Region 13019 [N14W22] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13020 [S21E07] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13021 [N13E17] developed in the trailing spot section and was quiet.
Region 13022 [S07E29] was quiet and stable.
Region 13023 [S13E51] was quiet and stable.
Region 13024 [S34E56] gained tiny trailing spots and was quiet.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7580 [S14W21] reemerged with tiny spots.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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