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Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Phénomènes Climatiques en rapport avec le Soleil. Le cycle 24 devrait être faible, voici une question majeure sur l'influence climatique de notre prochaine decennie.

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 31 mars 2022, 04:08

4 région(s) active(s) RA 2975 ,2976 ,2978 , 2980 et 33 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 102 / 13 observatoires
NOAA -> 73
SWPC -> 80
Flux solaire -> 151
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

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N 68.4 S 88.8
Region 12974 [S19W25] was quiet and stable.
Region 12975 [N13W24] is a complex region with multiple magnetic deltas. The region could produce a major flare. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 14:09, C1.4 @ 16:50, C1.5 @ 17:26, C1.8 @ 22:19 UT.
Region 12976 [N15W07] lost the magnetic delta and decayed slightly. An M class flare is possible.
Region 12977 [N21W38] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12978 [S17E52] was mostly quiet and stable and has M class flare potential.
Region 12979 [S19W03] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12980 [N08W40] decayed slowly and quietly.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 01 avr. 2022, 04:02

4 région(s) active(s) RA 2975 ,2976 ,2978 , 2981 et 44 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 117 / 09 observatoires
NOAA -> 84
SWPC -> 92
Flux solaire -> 149
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 12974 [S20W38] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12975 [N13W37] saw consolidation in the central and eastern parts and less polarity intermixing. The region could produce another major flare as it still has a magnetic delta. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 01:40, C1.3 @ 08:10, C1.1 @ 10:17 UT.
Region 12976 [N15W20] was mostly quiet and stable. Numerous tiny spots emerged in the trailing spot section and there is some polarity intermixing in that area. An M class flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 01:12, C1.2 @ 08:42 UT.
Region 12978 [S17E38] was mostly quiet and stable and has M class flare potential.
Region 12979 [S19W14] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12980 [N08W53] decayed slowly and quietly.
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It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 02 avr. 2022, 03:50

5 région(s) active(s) RA 2975 ,2976 ,2978 , 2981, 2982 et 59 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 108 / 06 observatoires
NOAA -> 109
SWPC -> 120
Flux solaire -> 147
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

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It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 02 avr. 2022, 03:58

Moyennes provisoires mars 2022
WDC silso -> 78.3
NOAA SSN -> 69.1
Star SDO MSN 1k -> 94.3
Flux solaire -> 117
Index Ap -> 10.1
Eruption solaire -> 197 C : 15 M et 1 X
vent solaire -> max 655 km/s mini 281 km/s
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It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 03 avr. 2022, 03:40

7 région(s) active(s) RA 2975 ,2976 ,2978 , 2981, 2982 , 2983 , 2984 et 48 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 109 / 16 observatoires
NOAA -> 118
SWPC -> 130
Flux solaire -> 143
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 12975 [N13W63] lost its magnetic delta and was much less active than during the previous days. M class flares are possible. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 22:16 UT.
Region 12976 [N14W49] decayed in the trailing spot section and was mostly quiet. An M class flare is possible.
Region 12978 [S17E13] developed as new flux emerged in the intermediate spot section. Flare activity increased. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 08:35, C1.8 @ 16:16, C1.6 @ 20:00 UT
Region 12979 [S17W38]reemerged with tiny spots.
Region 12981 [S25E20] produced numerous C flares and may be capable of producing an M class event. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 12:54, C1.9 @ 16:44, C1.9 @ 20:08 UT
New region 12982 [S19E48] rotated into view on March 29 and was numbered by SWPC 3 days later as the region decayed slowly.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 04 avr. 2022, 03:35

8 région(s) active(s) RA 2975 ,2976 ,2978 , 2981, 2982 , 2983 , 2984 , 2985 et 48 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 109 / 15 observatoires
NOAA -> 128
SWPC -> 141
Flux solaire -> 140
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image
Region 12975 [N14W77] produced 2 M and several C flares as it rotated to the northwest limb.
Region 12976 [N14W63] was the source of a long duration M3.9 proton flare as the region decayed further.
Region 12978 [S17W01] was less active than on the previous and appears to be slowly decaying. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 22:52 UT
Region 12981 [S25E05] decayed slowly and produced a couple of C flares.
Region 12982 [S19E37] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 12983 [N24E41] rotated into view on March 30 and was numbered by SWPC 3 days later.
New region 12984 [N12W68] emerged on April 1 with SWPC numbering the region the following day. Slow decay was observed after noon.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 05 avr. 2022, 04:02

6 région(s) active(s) RA,2976 ,2978 , 2981, 2982 , 2983 , 2985 et 26 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 69 / 11 observatoires
NOAA -> 86
SWPC -> 95
Flux solaire -> 128
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

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Region 12976 [N14W78] lost the trailing spots as decay continued.
Region 12978 [S16W14] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 01:30 UT
Region 12981 [S24W08] decayed in the trailing spot section and was mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 07:47 UT
Region 12982 [S19E23] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12983 [N24E28] was quiet and stable.
New region 12985 [S19E69] rotated into view on April 2 with SWPC numbering the region the next day.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 06 avr. 2022, 03:39

5 région(s) active(s) RA2978 , 2981, 2983 , 2985 , 2986 et 25 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 73 / 05 observatoires
NOAA -> 75
SWPC -> 83
Flux solaire -> 122
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image
Region 12978 [S16W27] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 12981 [S24W22] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12982 [S22E13] was quiet and stable.
Region 12983 [N24E15] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12985 [S19E57] was quiet and stable.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 07 avr. 2022, 03:37

4 région(s) active(s) RA 2978 , 2981, 2983 , 2985 et 21 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 67 / 13 observatoires
NOAA -> 61
SWPC -> 67
Flux solaire -> 117
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 12978 [S17W40] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 07:58 UT
Region 12981 [S24W36] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12983 [N24E01] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12985 [S19E43] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 22:41 UT
New region 12986 [N13W56] was first observed with spots on March 30 and has been on and off with spots since then. New flux emerged on April 4 and the region was numbered the next day by SWPC.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 08 avr. 2022, 04:27

4 région(s) active(s) RA 2978 , 2981, 2985 , 2987 et 12 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 54 / 17 observatoires
NOAA -> 52
SWPC -> 57
Flux solaire -> 117
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

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Region 12978 [S17W52] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 04:20 UT
Region 12981 [S24W48] decayed slowly and quietly. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 06:18 UT
Region 12982 [S19W12] reemerged with tiny spots.
Region 12983 [N23W12] gained tiny spots and was quiet.
Region 12985 [S19E29] gained tiny spots and was quiet.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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