{"id":931,"date":"2012-06-14T23:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-06-14T22:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/wordpress\/?p=931"},"modified":"2012-06-14T23:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-06-14T22:00:00","slug":"un-monde-dans-un-pic-petrolier","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/un-monde-dans-un-pic-petrolier\/","title":{"rendered":"Un monde dans un pic p\u00e9trolier"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"1665f18d14f35dd9e7566e1a8ac9a3e9\" data-index=\"1\" style=\"float: none; margin:10px 0 10px 0; text-align:center;\">\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\"\r\n     data-ad-layout=\"in-article\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-2860849627502538\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3019501113\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"930\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/un-monde-dans-un-pic-petrolier\/indicateur\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/indicateur.jpg?fit=225%2C225&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"225,225\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"indicateur\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/indicateur.jpg?fit=225%2C225&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/indicateur.jpg?fit=225%2C225&amp;ssl=1\" class=\" alignleft size-full wp-image-930\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/indicateur.jpg?w=120\" border=\"0\" alt=\"indicateur\" title=\"indicateur\"  style=\"float: left;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/indicateur.jpg?w=225&amp;ssl=1 225w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/indicateur.jpg?resize=150%2C150&amp;ssl=1 150w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 225px) 100vw, 225px\" \/>Dix ans apr\u00e8s sa cr\u00e9ation, l&rsquo;ASPO confirme le pic p\u00e9trolier.\u00a0Les faits semblent donner raison \u00e0 l&rsquo;Association d&rsquo;\u00e9tude du pic p\u00e9trolier. La production annuelle de p\u00e9trole conventionnel a amorc\u00e9 une d\u00e9crue depuis 2006, tandis que le baril est \u00e0 plus de 100 $ en continu depuis un an, situation sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">En ouverture de la conf\u00e9rence de l&rsquo;ASPO \u00e0 Vienne (Autriche), le 30 mai, son pr\u00e9sident, Kjell Aleklett, professeur de physique \u00e0 l&rsquo;universit\u00e9 d&rsquo;Uppsala en Su\u00e8de, en appelle \u00e0 \u00ab\u00a0d\u00e9ployer un matelas d&rsquo;amortissage\u00a0\u00bb, car l&rsquo;atterrissage risque d&rsquo;\u00eatre plus brutal que ce qu&rsquo;annoncent les \u00e9conomistes : \u00ab\u00a0Les lois de la physique sont plus fortes que les lois de l&rsquo;\u00e9conomie\u00a0\u00bb.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><br \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">La production de p\u00e9trole &#8211; non conventionnel inclus &#8211; est entr\u00e9e depuis 2005-2006 dans une phase de plateau instable. Les cent plus grands champs p\u00e9troliers, qui fournissent 45% du brut de la plan\u00e8te, donnent des signes de faiblesse, la taille moyenne des puits est en diminution. Sur le front offshore, les compagnies p\u00e9troli\u00e8res d\u00e9veloppent des forages de plus en plus profonds, dont l&#8217;embl\u00e8me est la plate-forme de Deep Water Horizon associ\u00e9e \u00e0 la tragique mar\u00e9e noire de 2010. Certains forages, comme Jack-2 dans le Golfe du Mexique, atteignent une profondeur \u00e9quivalente \u00e0 la hauteur du Mont Everest. Des cimes technologiques sont d\u00e9sormais n\u00e9cessaires pour aller chercher le pr\u00e9cieux liquide.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">Fin du plateau<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p> <script async src=\"\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script> <!-- TDF2 --> <ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"      style=\"display:inline-block;width:336px;height:280px\"      data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-2860849627502538\"      data-ad-slot=\"1340140919\"><\/ins> <script> (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); <\/script> <\/p><div class=\"1665f18d14f35dd9e7566e1a8ac9a3e9\" data-index=\"2\" style=\"float: none; margin:10px 0 10px 0; text-align:center;\">\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\"\r\n     data-ad-layout=\"in-article\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-2860849627502538\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3019501113\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">D&rsquo;ann\u00e9e en ann\u00e9e, l&rsquo;Agence internationale de l&rsquo;\u00e9nergie (AIE) a \u00e9t\u00e9 oblig\u00e9e de revoir ses pr\u00e9visions \u00e0 la baisse : dans le World Energy Outlook de 2004, elle annon\u00e7ait que la production de p\u00e9trole atteindrait 121 millions de barils par jour en 2030. Or celle-ci stagne aujourd&rsquo;hui autour de 85 millions de barils par jour. Dans ses rapports ult\u00e9rieurs, les chiffres de l&rsquo;AIE sont sensiblement plus modestes. En 2030, estime aujourd&rsquo;hui l&rsquo;Agence, la production mondiale sera d&rsquo;autant de barils qu&rsquo;aujourd&rsquo;hui, mais sur la base de ressources qui restent \u00e0 d\u00e9couvrir. Entre temps, un d\u00e9crochage aura eu lieu, car la courbe du p\u00e9trole brut aura commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 d\u00e9cro\u00eetre. L&rsquo;ASPO se penche sur cet \u00e9cart entre les d\u00e9couvertes hypoth\u00e9tiques et la d\u00e9pl\u00e9tion r\u00e9elle des plus grands champs p\u00e9troliers et gaziers de la plan\u00e8te.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">Quand ce d\u00e9crochage aura-t-il lieu ? Selon le physicien am\u00e9ricain Robert Hirsch, ancien directeur de la prospection p\u00e9troli\u00e8re chez Exxon, l&rsquo;\u00e9v\u00e9nement est imminent : il aura lieu autour de 2013-2015. A ce moment-l\u00e0, le plateau instable des \u00e9nergies fossiles arrivera \u00e0 son terme, et entamera une d\u00e9crue de 5 \u00e0 7% par an, dont les effets sur l&rsquo;\u00e9conomie mondiale seront imm\u00e9diatement sensibles. La courbe de la production de p\u00e9trole descendra d&rsquo;autant plus rapidement que les grands pays dits \u00e9mergents voudront augmenter leur consommation d&rsquo;\u00e9nergie. Le monde, dont l&rsquo;\u00e9nergie est fournie \u00e0 85% par les fossiles, sera confront\u00e9 \u00e0 des turbulences et des tensions comparables \u00e0 celles qui ont accompagn\u00e9 les chocs p\u00e9troliers de 1973 et de 1980. A ceci pr\u00e8s que, cette fois, il s&rsquo;agit d&rsquo;une \u00e9volution g\u00e9ologique irr\u00e9versible et non pas d&rsquo;une d\u00e9cision provisoire des pays de l&rsquo;OPEP de fermer les robinets. Face \u00e0 une telle urgence, les gouvernements devraient d\u00e9j\u00e0 pr\u00e9parer leurs populations \u00e0 \u00eatre confront\u00e9s \u00e0 des p\u00e9nuries.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">extrait et source compl\u00e8te ici :\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.actu-environnement.com\/ae\/news\/10-ans-aspo-pic-petrolier-15841.php4\">http:\/\/www.actu-environnement.com\/ae\/news\/10-ans-aspo-pic-petrolier-15841.php4<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"bawpvc-ajax-counter\" data-id=\"931\">(366)<\/p>\n<!--CusAds0-->\n<div style=\"font-size: 0px; height: 0px; line-height: 0px; margin: 0; padding: 0; clear: both;\"><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\" alignleft size-full wp-image-930\" src=\"http:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/indicateur.jpg\" border=\"0\" alt=\"indicateur\" title=\"indicateur\" width=\"120\" style=\"float: left;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/indicateur.jpg?w=225&amp;ssl=1 225w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/indicateur.jpg?resize=150%2C150&amp;ssl=1 150w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 225px) 100vw, 225px\" \/>Dix ans apr\u00e8s sa cr\u00e9ation, l&rsquo;ASPO confirme le pic p\u00e9trolier.\u00a0Les faits semblent donner raison \u00e0 l&rsquo;Association d&rsquo;\u00e9tude du pic p\u00e9trolier. La production annuelle de p\u00e9trole conventionnel a amorc\u00e9 une d\u00e9crue depuis 2006, tandis que le baril est \u00e0 plus de 100 $ en continu depuis un an, situation sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">En ouverture de la conf\u00e9rence de l&rsquo;ASPO \u00e0 Vienne (Autriche), le 30 mai, son pr\u00e9sident, Kjell Aleklett, professeur de physique \u00e0 l&rsquo;universit\u00e9 d&rsquo;Uppsala en Su\u00e8de, en appelle \u00e0 \u00ab\u00a0d\u00e9ployer un matelas d&rsquo;amortissage\u00a0\u00bb, car l&rsquo;atterrissage risque d&rsquo;\u00eatre plus brutal que ce qu&rsquo;annoncent les \u00e9conomistes : \u00ab\u00a0Les lois de la physique sont plus fortes que les lois de l&rsquo;\u00e9conomie\u00a0\u00bb.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><br \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":930,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[18],"tags":[1250,1073,1249,1248,102,566,464,444,1251,88],"class_list":["post-931","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-monde-futur","tag-1250","tag-1073","tag-1249","tag-aspo","tag-economie","tag-essence","tag-oil","tag-peak-oil","tag-penurie","tag-petrole","wpcat-18-id"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/indicateur.jpg?fit=225%2C225&ssl=1","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p631RN-f1","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":4431,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/le-4eme-choc-petrolier\/","url_meta":{"origin":931,"position":0},"title":"Le 4eme Choc P\u00e9trolier","author":"Admin","date":"23 mai 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"Un \u00ab pic de production \u00bb d\u00e9signe le sommet de la courbe qui caract\u00e9rise la production p\u00e9troli\u00e8re d'un puits ou d'un champ p\u00e9trolier ; par extension le pic p\u00e9trolier d\u00e9signe celle d'un pays voire de l'ensemble de la plan\u00e8te. Appel\u00e9 Peak Oil en anglais, il constitue l'extrapolation des travaux du\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Divers&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Divers","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/divers\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":776,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/un-monde-de-penurie-petroliere\/","url_meta":{"origin":931,"position":1},"title":"Un monde de p\u00e9nurie p\u00e9troli\u00e8re","author":"Admin","date":"23 f\u00e9vrier 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Apr\u00e8s le Pentagone, la Bundeswehr \u00a0a publi\u00e9 en septembre 2010 un rapport alarmiste quant aux cons\u00e9quences, pour l'\u00e9conomie et la paix dans le monde, d'un pic p\u00e9trolier qui serait imminent voir d\u00e9pass\u00e9. L\u2019article paru en septembre 2010 dans l\u2019hebdomadaire allemand Der Spiegel, le magazine s\u2019est en effet procur\u00e9 un rapport\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Monde Futur&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Monde Futur","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/monde-futur\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"petrole","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/petrole-2012-4.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":4177,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/la-production-mondiale-de-petrole-a-atteint-son-pic-en-2006\/","url_meta":{"origin":931,"position":2},"title":"La production mondiale de p\u00e9trole a atteint son pic en 2006","author":"Admin","date":"2 novembre 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"Selon les chiffres publi\u00e9s par l''EWG, le monde a produit 81 millions de barils par jour (Mbj) en 2006. La production de p\u00e9trole dans le monde a atteint son pic en 2006, et devrait d\u00e9cliner de moiti\u00e9 d''ici 2030, a pr\u00e9venu lundi l''institut Energy Watch Group, lors d''une conf\u00e9rence sur\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Divers&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Divers","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/divers\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/gouttepetrole.jpg?fit=200%2C300&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":3564,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/un-monde-vers-la-petro-apocalypse\/","url_meta":{"origin":931,"position":3},"title":"Un monde vers la p\u00e9tro apocalypse","author":"Admin","date":"19 juillet 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"Dans quelques ann\u00e9es, la production mondiale de p\u00e9trole conventionnel d\u00e9clinera tandis que la demande mondiale ne cesse de cro\u00eetre. Le choc r\u00e9sultant de cette famine p\u00e9troli\u00e8re structurelle est in\u00e9vitable, tant sont importantes la d\u00e9pendance de nos \u00e9conomies au p\u00e9trole bon march\u00e9 et l'impossibilit\u00e9 concomitante de les en sevrer rapidement. Nous\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Monde Futur&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Monde Futur","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/monde-futur\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2091,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/un-monde-de-chocs-petroliers-a-repetition-solutions-en-vue\/","url_meta":{"origin":931,"position":4},"title":"Un monde de chocs p\u00e9troliers \u00e0 r\u00e9p\u00e9tition, solutions en vue","author":"Admin","date":"10 juillet 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"De la fin de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2001 au 31 juillet 2008 le prix du p\u00e9trole a augment\u00e9 de 525% en USD. Une information fondamentale publi\u00e9e par l'Agence internationale de l'\u00e9nergie (AIE) est pass\u00e9e totalement inaper\u00e7ue : le pic p\u00e9trolier s'est produit en 2006. Alors que la demande mondiale continuera \u00e0 cro\u00eetre\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Monde Futur&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Monde Futur","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/monde-futur\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/06\/petrole.jpg?fit=225%2C225&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":5655,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/le-monde-de-hubbert\/","url_meta":{"origin":931,"position":5},"title":"Le Monde de Hubbert","author":"Admin","date":"10 janvier 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Nous commen\u00e7ons \u00e0 \u00eatre relativement bien inform\u00e9s des changements climatiques. Les dirigeants se rencontrent r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement pour parler du probl\u00e8me et d\u00e9finir des programmes que nos d\u00e9mocraties ont d\u00fb mal \u00e0 appliquer. M\u00eame si les modifications climatiques sont indubitablement un probl\u00e8me s\u00e9rieux, ses aspects les plus dangereux ne nous menaceront probablement\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Monde Futur&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Monde Futur","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/monde-futur\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/puitsdepetroleenfeu.jpg?fit=400%2C254&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/931","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=931"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/931\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/930"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=931"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=931"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=931"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}