{"id":8340,"date":"2015-10-04T00:00:03","date_gmt":"2015-10-03T22:00:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/?p=8340"},"modified":"2015-09-23T16:22:15","modified_gmt":"2015-09-23T14:22:15","slug":"mercure-va-t-elle-percuter-le-soleil-venus-ou-bien-la-terre","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/mercure-va-t-elle-percuter-le-soleil-venus-ou-bien-la-terre\/","title":{"rendered":"Mercure va-t-elle percuter le Soleil, V\u00e9nus&#8230; ou bien la Terre ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"1665f18d14f35dd9e7566e1a8ac9a3e9\" data-index=\"1\" style=\"float: none; margin:10px 0 10px 0; text-align:center;\">\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\"\r\n     data-ad-layout=\"in-article\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-2860849627502538\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3019501113\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Dans un futur tr\u00e8s lointain, la plan\u00e8te Mercure pourrait rentrer en collision avec le Soleil ou V\u00e9nus. Un heurt avec la Terre, un temps envisag\u00e9, semble \u00eatre \u00e9cart\u00e9 par une nouvelle \u00e9tude.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Le spectacle aurait d\u00fb \u00eatre le dernier \u00e9v\u00e8nement que nous aurions admir\u00e9 avant de dispara\u00eetre, si toutefois l\u2019humanit\u00e9 avait encore \u00e9t\u00e9 l\u00e0: la probabilit\u00e9 qu\u2019au cours des cinq prochains milliards d\u2019ann\u00e9es, la plan\u00e8te Mercure rentre en collision avec la Terre, faisant totalement voler en \u00e9clat la mince cro\u00fbte qui porte la vie !<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ce r\u00e9sultat, qu\u2019annon\u00e7ait la revue Nature en 2009 suite au travail de Jacques Laskar de l\u2019IMCCE (Institut de M\u00e9canique C\u00e9leste et de Calcul des Eph\u00e9m\u00e9rides \u00e0 Paris), vient d\u2019\u00eatre contredit par l\u2019astrophysicien Richard Zeebe de l\u2019universit\u00e9 d\u2019Hawa\u00ef (Etats-Unis) (1): ses simulations num\u00e9riques montrent que l\u2019orbite de la Terre est extr\u00eamement stable pour les prochains milliards d\u2019ann\u00e9es et qu\u2019il n\u2019y a pas de risque de collision avec notre plan\u00e8te. En revanche, les deux \u00e9tudes s\u2019accordent sur le r\u00f4le perturbateur de Mercure : une vraie boule de billard cosmique. Selon l\u2019astrophysicien am\u00e9ricain, cette petite plan\u00e8te, la plus proche du Soleil, devrait voir l\u2019excentricit\u00e9 de son orbite augmenter au point de devenir une ellipse tr\u00e8s allong\u00e9e et percuter le Soleil ou encore V\u00e9nus\u2026<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">1600 simulations num\u00e9riques<\/p><div class=\"1665f18d14f35dd9e7566e1a8ac9a3e9\" data-index=\"2\" style=\"float: none; margin:10px 0 10px 0; text-align:center;\">\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\"\r\n     data-ad-layout=\"in-article\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-2860849627502538\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3019501113\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Pour obtenir ce r\u00e9sultat, Richard Zeebe a pu disposer du superordinateur Cray de l\u2019universit\u00e9 d\u2019Hawa\u00ef de mani\u00e8re ininterrompue pendant six semaines. Il a proc\u00e9d\u00e9 \u00e0 1600 simulations num\u00e9riques sur le futur du syst\u00e8me solaire en partant des positions actuelles des plan\u00e8tes et en appliquant les lois de la m\u00e9canique c\u00e9leste. En effet, le propre des syst\u00e8mes chaotiques \u2013comme le Soleil et les plan\u00e8tes\u2013 est qu\u2019une petite incertitude sur leur position actuelle, par exemple une diff\u00e9rence d\u2019un centim\u00e8tre, peut g\u00e9n\u00e9rer de grands \u00e9carts d\u2019orbite dans des millions d\u2019ann\u00e9es. Sur les 1600 cas de figure \u00e9tudi\u00e9s, correspondant \u00e0 autant de positions actuelles des corps c\u00e9lestes avec l\u2019incertitude des mesures, pr\u00e8s de 1% des cas pr\u00e9sentent des risques de collision de Mercure avec le Soleil ou V\u00e9nus. Le Fran\u00e7ais Jacques Laskar, qui est d&rsquo;accord sur les 1% de cas de collisions, maintient toutefois ses conclusions concernant les risques avec la Terre. Il juge le nombre de simulations num\u00e9riques de son coll\u00e8gue am\u00e9ricain insuffisant : en 2009, lui-m\u00eame avait tir\u00e9 ses conclusions de 2501 cas \u00e9tudi\u00e9s. \u00ab\u00a0Revenir bredouille de la p\u00eache au bout de deux heures, ne signifie en rien l\u2019absence de poisson dans un lac\u00a0\u00bb, a-t-il soulign\u00e9 \u00e0 la revue Science du 18 septembre.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">source : http:\/\/www.sciencesetavenir.fr\/<\/p>\n<p class=\"bawpvc-ajax-counter\" data-id=\"8340\">(527)<\/p>\n<!--CusAds0-->\n<div style=\"font-size: 0px; height: 0px; line-height: 0px; margin: 0; padding: 0; clear: both;\"><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dans un futur tr\u00e8s lointain, la plan\u00e8te Mercure pourrait rentrer en collision avec le Soleil ou V\u00e9nus. Un heurt avec&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6313,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[22],"tags":[2312,2053,1283,37,75,1629],"class_list":["post-8340","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-espace","tag-collision","tag-mercure","tag-orbite","tag-soleil","tag-terre","tag-venus","wpcat-22-id"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/mercure.jpg?fit=900%2C458&ssl=1","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p631RN-2aw","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":27381,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/un-asteroide-proche-de-la-terre-etait-cache-dans-leblouissement-du-soleil\/","url_meta":{"origin":8340,"position":0},"title":"Un ast\u00e9ro\u00efde proche de la Terre \u00e9tait cach\u00e9 dans l&rsquo;\u00e9blouissement du soleil","author":"Admin","date":"25 octobre 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Dans un pass\u00e9 lointain, le syst\u00e8me solaire \u00e9tait le th\u00e9\u00e2tre d'impacts et de collisions incessants. Des millions d'objets filaient de mani\u00e8re chaotique \u00e0 travers le syst\u00e8me, s'entrechoquant dans des cascades de collisions. Au fil du temps, beaucoup d'entre eux ont fini par s'int\u00e9grer aux plan\u00e8tes rocheuses. Ce qui en reste\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Espace&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Espace","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/espace\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/asteroide-dissimule-dans-leblouissement-du-Soleil.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/asteroide-dissimule-dans-leblouissement-du-Soleil.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/asteroide-dissimule-dans-leblouissement-du-Soleil.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/asteroide-dissimule-dans-leblouissement-du-Soleil.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/asteroide-dissimule-dans-leblouissement-du-Soleil.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":12097,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/mercure-va-saligner-entre-la-terre-et-le-soleil-un-transit-tres-rare\/","url_meta":{"origin":8340,"position":1},"title":"Mercure va s&rsquo;aligner entre la Terre et le Soleil, un transit tr\u00e8s rare","author":"Admin","date":"6 mai 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Ce ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne tr\u00e8s rare sera visible lundi 9 mai 2016 depuis la France pendant une dur\u00e9e de plus de 7 heures. Mercure, la plus petite plan\u00e8te du syst\u00e8me solaire, passera lundi entre la Terre et le Soleil. Ce ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne rare sera visible dans la partie du monde o\u00f9 il fera\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Espace&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Espace","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/espace\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/mercure.jpg?fit=900%2C458&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/mercure.jpg?fit=900%2C458&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/mercure.jpg?fit=900%2C458&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/mercure.jpg?fit=900%2C458&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":18250,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/la-planete-la-plus-proche-du-soleil-contient-de-la-glace-a-sa-surface\/","url_meta":{"origin":8340,"position":2},"title":"La plan\u00e8te la plus proche du Soleil contient de la glace \u00e0 sa surface","author":"Admin","date":"4 f\u00e9vrier 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"En 2012, les scientifiques ont d\u00e9couvert qu'il existait dans les r\u00e9gions polaires de Mercure de grandes quantit\u00e9s de glace d'eau. Bien que l\u2019existence de glace dans cette r\u00e9gion soit improbable, apr\u00e8s tout, il s\u2019agit d\u2019une plan\u00e8te avec une temp\u00e9rature de 426 \u00b0 C \u00e0 sa surface, l\u2019existence de glace est\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Espace&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Espace","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/espace\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/mercure-eau-pole.jpg?fit=1024%2C515&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/mercure-eau-pole.jpg?fit=1024%2C515&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/mercure-eau-pole.jpg?fit=1024%2C515&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/mercure-eau-pole.jpg?fit=1024%2C515&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":11804,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/notre-systeme-solaire-a-t-il-abrite-une-super-terre\/","url_meta":{"origin":8340,"position":3},"title":"Notre syst\u00e8me solaire a-t-il abrit\u00e9 une super-terre ?","author":"Admin","date":"23 avril 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Depuis quelques temps d\u00e9j\u00e0 la chasse aux exoplan\u00e8tes est lanc\u00e9e. Le t\u00e9lescope Kepler en d\u00e9couvre toujours plus et on commence \u00e9galement \u00e0 savoir un certain nombre de choses sur elles. L\u2019\u00e9tude de ces syst\u00e8mes n\u2019est d\u2019ailleurs pas d\u00e9nu\u00e9e de sens, loin de l\u00e0, et elle nous permet d\u2019en apprendre plus\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Espace&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Espace","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/espace\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/super-terre.jpg?fit=700%2C467&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/super-terre.jpg?fit=700%2C467&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/super-terre.jpg?fit=700%2C467&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/super-terre.jpg?fit=700%2C467&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":9907,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/la-sonde-japonaise-akatsuki-en-orbite-autour-de-venus\/","url_meta":{"origin":8340,"position":4},"title":"La sonde Japonaise Akatsuki en orbite autour de V\u00e9nus","author":"Admin","date":"10 d\u00e9cembre 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Si les missions spatiales se d\u00e9roulent g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement relativement bien, il arrive que des incidents viennent enrayer la m\u00e9canique bien huil\u00e9e des sondes. L'agence spatiale japonaise en a fait les frais avec sa sonde Akatsuki qui vient seulement d'arriver \u00e0 destination... avec cinq ans de retard. Il n'y a pas que\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Espace&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Espace","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/espace\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/venus.jpg?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/venus.jpg?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/venus.jpg?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/venus.jpg?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":11671,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/le-systeme-solaire-une-neuvieme-planete\/","url_meta":{"origin":8340,"position":5},"title":"Le syst\u00e8me solaire : Une neuvi\u00e8me plan\u00e8te","author":"Admin","date":"13 avril 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Le syst\u00e8me solaire comprend le Soleil et tous les objets plus petits qui tournent autour de lui. \u00c0 part le Soleil, les plus gros objets du syst\u00e8me solaire sont les huit grandes plan\u00e8tes. Les plus proches du Soleil sont les quatre plan\u00e8tes rocheuses, relativement petites : Mercure, V\u00e9nus, la Terre\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Espace&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Espace","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/espace\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/pluton-ciel-bleu-glace-nasa-1.jpg?fit=648%2C415&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/pluton-ciel-bleu-glace-nasa-1.jpg?fit=648%2C415&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/pluton-ciel-bleu-glace-nasa-1.jpg?fit=648%2C415&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8340","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8340"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8340\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8341,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8340\/revisions\/8341"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6313"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8340"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8340"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8340"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}