{"id":776,"date":"2012-02-23T23:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-02-23T22:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/wordpress\/?p=776"},"modified":"2012-02-23T23:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-02-23T22:00:00","slug":"un-monde-de-penurie-petroliere","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/un-monde-de-penurie-petroliere\/","title":{"rendered":"Un monde de p\u00e9nurie p\u00e9troli\u00e8re"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"1665f18d14f35dd9e7566e1a8ac9a3e9\" data-index=\"1\" style=\"float: none; margin:10px 0 10px 0; text-align:center;\">\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\"\r\n     data-ad-layout=\"in-article\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-2860849627502538\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3019501113\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"771\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/un-monde-de-penurie-petroliere\/petrole-2012-3\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/petrole-2012-3.jpg?fit=160%2C106&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"160,106\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"petrole-2012-3\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/petrole-2012-3.jpg?fit=160%2C106&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/petrole-2012-3.jpg?fit=160%2C106&amp;ssl=1\" class=\" alignleft size-full wp-image-771\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/petrole-2012-3.jpg?w=120\" border=\"0\" alt=\"petrole p\u00e9nurie\"  style=\"float: left;\" \/>Apr\u00e8s le Pentagone, la Bundeswehr \u00a0a publi\u00e9 en septembre 2010 un rapport alarmiste quant aux cons\u00e9quences, pour l&rsquo;\u00e9conomie et la paix dans le monde, d&rsquo;un pic p\u00e9trolier qui serait imminent voir d\u00e9pass\u00e9.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: small; color: #000000;\">L\u2019article paru en septembre 2010 dans l\u2019hebdomadaire allemand Der Spiegel, le magazine s\u2019est en effet procur\u00e9 un rapport du d\u00e9partement d\u2019analyse du futur de la Bundeswehr, l\u2019arm\u00e9e allemande, qui estime qu\u2019il est probable que que \u00ab Peak Oil se produise aux alentours de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2010, et qu\u2019il ait des cons\u00e9quences sur la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 dans un d\u00e9lai de quinze \u00e0 trente ans \u00bb.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: small; color: #000000;\">   <br \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">Ce pic p\u00e9trolier, c\u2019est \u00e0 dire le jour \u00e0 partir duquel la production mondiale de p\u00e9trole amorcera un d\u00e9clin in\u00e9luctable, entra\u00eenera une flamb\u00e9e des prix, et \u00ab \u00e0 moyen terme, le syst\u00e8me \u00e9conomique global et chaque \u00e9conomie de march\u00e9 nationale pourrait s\u2019effondrer \u00bb, estiment les analystes de l\u2019arm\u00e9e allemande. \u00ab Des p\u00e9nuries de biens vitaux \u00bb, notamment de nourriture, pourraient appara\u00eetre, ajoutent-ils, conduisant \u00e0 la mise en place de \u00ab politiques de rationnement \u00bb. Les auteurs du rapport s\u2019inqui\u00e8tent aussi des cons\u00e9quences g\u00e9opolitiques de la rar\u00e9faction du p\u00e9trole qui pourrait favoriser la mont\u00e9e des extr\u00e9mismes. Dans ce contexte, \u00ab les \u00c9tats qui d\u00e9pendent des importations de p\u00e9trole \u00bb seront oblig\u00e9s \u00ab de montrer plus de pragmatisme \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard des pays producteurs \u00bb, <img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"772\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/un-monde-de-penurie-petroliere\/petrole-2012-4\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/petrole-2012-4.jpg?fit=275%2C183&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"275,183\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"petrole-2012-4\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/petrole-2012-4.jpg?fit=275%2C183&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/petrole-2012-4.jpg?fit=275%2C183&amp;ssl=1\" class=\" alignleft size-full wp-image-772\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/petrole-2012-4.jpg?resize=275%2C183\" border=\"0\" alt=\"petrole\" align=\"left\" width=\"275\" height=\"183\" \/>estiment-ils, en se montant, dans le cas de l\u2019Allemagne par exemple, plus souple \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard de la Russie ou plus dur vis-\u00e0-vis d\u2019Isra\u00ebl.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">Ce rapport de la Bundeswehr intervient dans la foul\u00e9e de celui publi\u00e9 en mars dernier par l\u2019\u00e9tat-major interarm\u00e9es am\u00e9ricain et qui pr\u00e9voyait une \u00ab crise \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique s\u00e9v\u00e8re \u00bb d\u2019ici \u00e0 2015.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u00ab\u00a0Le \u00ab Service d\u2019analyse du futur \u00bb, un think tank qui fait partie du \u00ab centre de transformation de l\u2019arm\u00e9e allemande \u00bb a pour la premi\u00e8re fois analys\u00e9 l\u2019aspect politique de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 du probl\u00e8me du Peak Oil. Les auteurs, sous la direction du Lieutenant Colonel Thomas Will, d\u00e9crivent en des termes dramatiques les cons\u00e9quences d\u2019un \u00e9puisement irr\u00e9versible des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u00ab\u00a0Ils mettent en garde contre une modification de l\u2019\u00e9quilibre global du pouvoir, contre de nouvelles relations de d\u00e9pendance, contre une perte d\u2019influence des nations industrielles europ\u00e9ennes, contre l\u2019effondrement total des march\u00e9s, contre de graves crises politiques et \u00e9conomiques.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u00ab\u00a0L\u2019\u00e9tude, dont l\u2019authenticit\u00e9 a \u00e9t\u00e9 confirm\u00e9e au Spiegel Online par des sources proches du gouvernement, n\u2019\u00e9tait pas destin\u00e9e \u00e0 \u00eatre publi\u00e9e. Il ne s\u2019agirait que d\u2019un brouillon, un point de vue purement scientifique, qui n\u2019a pas encore \u00e9t\u00e9 revu par le minist\u00e8re de la D\u00e9fense ou d\u2019autres organes gouvernementaux.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"773\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/un-monde-de-penurie-petroliere\/petrole-2012-1\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/petrole-2012-1.jpg?fit=259%2C195&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"259,195\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"petrole-2012-1\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/petrole-2012-1.jpg?fit=259%2C195&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/petrole-2012-1.jpg?fit=259%2C195&amp;ssl=1\" class=\" alignleft size-full wp-image-773\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/petrole-2012-1.jpg?resize=259%2C195\" border=\"0\" alt=\"petrole\" title=\"petrole\" align=\"left\" width=\"259\" height=\"195\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/petrole-2012-1.jpg?w=259&amp;ssl=1 259w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/petrole-2012-1.jpg?resize=174%2C131&amp;ssl=1 174w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/petrole-2012-1.jpg?resize=70%2C53&amp;ssl=1 70w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 259px) 100vw, 259px\" \/>\u00ab\u00a0L\u2019auteur principal, Will, a refus\u00e9 de r\u00e9pondre aux questions sur cette \u00e9tude. Il est cependant peu probable que l\u2019arm\u00e9e allemande ou le gouvernement aient eu l\u2019intention de publier ce document tel quel. Mais cette \u00e9tude d\u00e9montre a quel point le gouvernement allemand est d\u00e9j\u00e0 pr\u00e9occup\u00e9 par le probl\u00e8me du Peak Oil.<\/span><\/span><\/p><div class=\"1665f18d14f35dd9e7566e1a8ac9a3e9\" data-index=\"2\" style=\"float: none; margin:10px 0 10px 0; text-align:center;\">\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\"\r\n     data-ad-layout=\"in-article\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-2860849627502538\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3019501113\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u00ab\u00a0Cet incident pr\u00e9sente des similitudes avec un autre qui a eu lieu en Grande Bretagne. Pas plus tard que la semaine pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente, le Guardian avait rapport\u00e9 que des documents secrets du minist\u00e8re britannique de l\u2019\u00e9nergie et du changement climatique (DECC) semblent montrer que le gouvernement britannique est plus pr\u00e9occup\u00e9 qu\u2019il ne veut bien l\u2019admettre par une future crise de l\u2019approvisionnement. En cons\u00e9quence, le DECC, la Banque d\u2019Angleterre, le minist\u00e8re de la D\u00e9fense britannique et des repr\u00e9sentants de l\u2019industrie \u00e9tudieraient un plan de crise qui traite des cons\u00e9quences d\u2019une possible p\u00e9nurie d\u2019approvisionnement.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u00ab\u00a0Le Spiegel Online a eu acc\u00e8s aux questions pos\u00e9es lors de groupes de travail sur le fameux Peak Oil \u00e0 des experts en \u00e9nergie. Un porte-parole du DECC s\u2019est efforc\u00e9 de calmer le jeu. L\u2019enqu\u00eate serait de la routine, a-t-il d\u00e9clar\u00e9 au Guardian. Elles n\u2019auraient aucune implication politique. L\u2019\u00e9tude de l\u2019arm\u00e9e allemande pourrait \u00e9galement ne pas avoir de cons\u00e9quence politique imm\u00e9diate. Mais elle montre que le gouvernement craint que la p\u00e9nurie puisse se produire rapidement.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"774\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/un-monde-de-penurie-petroliere\/petrole-2012-2\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/petrole-2012-2.jpg?fit=262%2C193&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"262,193\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"petrole-2012-2\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/petrole-2012-2.jpg?fit=262%2C193&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/petrole-2012-2.jpg?fit=262%2C193&amp;ssl=1\" class=\" alignleft size-full wp-image-774\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/petrole-2012-2.jpg?resize=262%2C193\" border=\"0\" alt=\"petrole\" align=\"left\" width=\"262\" height=\"193\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/petrole-2012-2.jpg?w=262&amp;ssl=1 262w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/petrole-2012-2.jpg?resize=70%2C53&amp;ssl=1 70w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 262px) 100vw, 262px\" \/>Des hausses brutales de prix pourraient donc \u00eatre observ\u00e9es dans la plupart des industries et \u00e0 toutes les \u00e9tapes de la cha\u00eene de l\u2019approvisionnement industriel. \u00ab \u00c0 moyen terme, le syst\u00e8me \u00e9conomique global et toutes les \u00e9conomies nationales de march\u00e9 s\u2019\u00e9crouleraient \u00bb.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u00ab\u00a0Retour \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9conomie planifi\u00e9e : puisque la quasi totalit\u00e9 des secteurs de l\u2019\u00e9conomie d\u00e9pendent fortement du p\u00e9trole, le Peak Oil pourrait conduire \u00e0 une \u00ab d\u00e9faillance partielle ou totale des march\u00e9s \u00bb, dit l\u2019\u00e9tude. \u00ab Une alternative concevable serait un rationnement gouvernemental, une allocation de denr\u00e9es importantes ainsi que la mise en place de plans de production et autres mesures coercitives de court terme pour remplacer les m\u00e9canismes de base des march\u00e9s en temps de crise. \u00bb<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">\u00ab\u00a0R\u00e9action en cha\u00eene globale : \u00ab Une restructuration de la fourniture du p\u00e9trole ne sera pas possible \u00e9quitablement dans toutes les r\u00e9gions du monde avant le d\u00e9but du Peak Oil \u00bb, dit l\u2019\u00e9tude. Il est probable qu\u2019un grand nombre de pays ne soit pas en mesure de faire \u00e0 temps les investissements n\u00e9cessaires, ou avec \u00ab une ampleur suffisante \u00bb. S\u2019il y avait des effondrements \u00e9conomiques dans certaines r\u00e9gions du monde, l\u2019Allemagne pourrait \u00eatre affect\u00e9e. L\u2019Allemagne n\u2019\u00e9chapperait pas \u00e0 la crise des autres pays, tant elle est li\u00e9e \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9conomie globale.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"775\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/un-monde-de-penurie-petroliere\/petrole-2012\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/petrole-2012.jpg?fit=275%2C183&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"275,183\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"petrole-2012\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/petrole-2012.jpg?fit=275%2C183&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/petrole-2012.jpg?fit=275%2C183&amp;ssl=1\" class=\" alignleft size-full wp-image-775\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/petrole-2012.jpg?resize=275%2C183\" border=\"0\" alt=\"petrole\" align=\"left\" width=\"275\" height=\"183\" \/>\u00ab\u00a0Crise de l\u00e9gitimit\u00e9 politique. L\u2019\u00e9tude de l\u2019arm\u00e9e allemande rel\u00e8ve aussi l\u2019inqui\u00e9tude pour la survie de la d\u00e9mocratie elle-m\u00eame. Une partie de la population pourrait percevoir le bouleversement d\u00e9clench\u00e9 par le Peak Oil comme une \u00ab crise syst\u00e9mique g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9e \u00bb. Ceci cr\u00e9erait un espace pour des alternatives id\u00e9ologiques ou extr\u00e9mistes aux formes existantes de gouvernement. Une fragmentation des populations affect\u00e9es est probable, et \u00ab pourrait dans des cas extr\u00eames conduire \u00e0 des conflits ouverts \u00bb.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><br \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">sources :\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.terraeco.net\/\">http:\/\/www.terraeco.net<\/a> \/\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.reporterre.net\/\">http:\/\/www.reporterre.net\/<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"bawpvc-ajax-counter\" data-id=\"776\">(393)<\/p>\n<!--CusAds0-->\n<div style=\"font-size: 0px; height: 0px; line-height: 0px; margin: 0; padding: 0; clear: both;\"><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\" alignleft size-full wp-image-771\" src=\"http:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/petrole-2012-3.jpg\" border=\"0\" alt=\"petrole p\u00e9nurie\" width=\"120\" style=\"float: left;\" \/>Apr\u00e8s le Pentagone, la Bundeswehr \u00a0a publi\u00e9 en septembre 2010 un rapport alarmiste quant aux cons\u00e9quences, pour l&rsquo;\u00e9conomie et la paix dans le monde, d&rsquo;un pic p\u00e9trolier qui serait imminent voir d\u00e9pass\u00e9.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: small; color: #000000;\">L\u2019article paru en septembre 2010 dans l\u2019hebdomadaire allemand Der Spiegel, le magazine s\u2019est en effet procur\u00e9 un rapport du d\u00e9partement d\u2019analyse du futur de la Bundeswehr, l\u2019arm\u00e9e allemande, qui estime qu\u2019il est probable que que \u00ab Peak Oil se produise aux alentours de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2010, et qu\u2019il ait des cons\u00e9quences sur la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 dans un d\u00e9lai de quinze \u00e0 trente ans \u00bb.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-size: small; color: #000000;\"> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":771,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[18],"tags":[1073,478,1074,1071,1072,1076,1070,128,475,1077,130,1075,464,444,1069,88],"class_list":["post-776","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-monde-futur","tag-1073","tag-478","tag-1074","tag-allemand","tag-bundeswehr","tag-crise","tag-denrees","tag-futur","tag-future","tag-gouvernement","tag-monde","tag-moyen-terme","tag-oil","tag-peak-oil","tag-penurie-petroliere","tag-petrole","wpcat-18-id"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/02\/petrole-2012-3.jpg?fit=160%2C106&ssl=1","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p631RN-cw","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":931,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/un-monde-dans-un-pic-petrolier\/","url_meta":{"origin":776,"position":0},"title":"Un monde dans un pic p\u00e9trolier","author":"Admin","date":"14 juin 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Dix ans apr\u00e8s sa cr\u00e9ation, l'ASPO confirme le pic p\u00e9trolier.\u00a0Les faits semblent donner raison \u00e0 l'Association d'\u00e9tude du pic p\u00e9trolier. La production annuelle de p\u00e9trole conventionnel a amorc\u00e9 une d\u00e9crue depuis 2006, tandis que le baril est \u00e0 plus de 100 $ en continu depuis un an, situation sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent.\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Monde Futur&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Monde Futur","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/monde-futur\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/indicateur.jpg?fit=225%2C225&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":4177,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/la-production-mondiale-de-petrole-a-atteint-son-pic-en-2006\/","url_meta":{"origin":776,"position":1},"title":"La production mondiale de p\u00e9trole a atteint son pic en 2006","author":"Admin","date":"2 novembre 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"Selon les chiffres publi\u00e9s par l''EWG, le monde a produit 81 millions de barils par jour (Mbj) en 2006. La production de p\u00e9trole dans le monde a atteint son pic en 2006, et devrait d\u00e9cliner de moiti\u00e9 d''ici 2030, a pr\u00e9venu lundi l''institut Energy Watch Group, lors d''une conf\u00e9rence sur\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Divers&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Divers","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/divers\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/gouttepetrole.jpg?fit=200%2C300&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":2543,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/le-scenario-climatique-dapocalypse\/","url_meta":{"origin":776,"position":2},"title":"Le sc\u00e9nario climatique d&rsquo;apocalypse","author":"Admin","date":"28 novembre 2004","format":false,"excerpt":"Le sc\u00e9nario climatique d'apocalypse... que voulait cacher le Pentagone LE MONDE | 05.03.04 | 14h33 Une Europe au climat sib\u00e9rien, une Am\u00e9rique transform\u00e9e en d\u00e9sert, le Bangladesh inond\u00e9, des migrants par millions, des guerres, l'effondrement de l'\u00e9conomie mondiale... Telles pourraient \u00eatre les cons\u00e9quences du changement climatique, selon un rapport command\u00e9\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Climat&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Climat","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/climat\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/laterredufutur.com_spaw_images_banquise_3.jpg?fit=300%2C225&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":3564,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/un-monde-vers-la-petro-apocalypse\/","url_meta":{"origin":776,"position":3},"title":"Un monde vers la p\u00e9tro apocalypse","author":"Admin","date":"19 juillet 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"Dans quelques ann\u00e9es, la production mondiale de p\u00e9trole conventionnel d\u00e9clinera tandis que la demande mondiale ne cesse de cro\u00eetre. Le choc r\u00e9sultant de cette famine p\u00e9troli\u00e8re structurelle est in\u00e9vitable, tant sont importantes la d\u00e9pendance de nos \u00e9conomies au p\u00e9trole bon march\u00e9 et l'impossibilit\u00e9 concomitante de les en sevrer rapidement. Nous\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Monde Futur&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Monde Futur","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/monde-futur\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4431,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/le-4eme-choc-petrolier\/","url_meta":{"origin":776,"position":4},"title":"Le 4eme Choc P\u00e9trolier","author":"Admin","date":"23 mai 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"Un \u00ab pic de production \u00bb d\u00e9signe le sommet de la courbe qui caract\u00e9rise la production p\u00e9troli\u00e8re d'un puits ou d'un champ p\u00e9trolier ; par extension le pic p\u00e9trolier d\u00e9signe celle d'un pays voire de l'ensemble de la plan\u00e8te. Appel\u00e9 Peak Oil en anglais, il constitue l'extrapolation des travaux du\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Divers&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Divers","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/divers\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3570,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/le-rapport-du-pentagone\/","url_meta":{"origin":776,"position":5},"title":"Le Rapport du Pentagone","author":"Admin","date":"24 juillet 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"Voici le Rapport du Pentagone qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 command\u00e9 en 2003 et qui est arriv\u00e9 debut 2004. Bien des faits se sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 r\u00e9alis\u00e9s depuis sa sortie. Ainsi une augmentation tr\u00e8s significative des ouragans en 2005, une s\u00e9cheresse amplifi\u00e9e sur bien des territoires et ce qui est nouveau une augmentation\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Climat&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Climat","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/climat\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/whitehouse.jpeg?fit=416%2C235&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/776","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=776"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/776\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/771"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=776"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=776"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=776"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}