{"id":5721,"date":"2011-03-07T21:00:03","date_gmt":"2011-03-07T19:00:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/?p=5721"},"modified":"2026-06-08T08:37:28","modified_gmt":"2026-06-08T08:37:28","slug":"le-nombre-de-cyclones-est-reste-stable-de-1972-a-2010","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/le-nombre-de-cyclones-est-reste-stable-de-1972-a-2010\/","title":{"rendered":"Le nombre de cyclones est rest\u00e9 stable de 1972 \u00e0 2010\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"1665f18d14f35dd9e7566e1a8ac9a3e9\" data-index=\"1\" style=\"float: none; margin:10px 0 10px 0; text-align:center;\">\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\"\r\n     data-ad-layout=\"in-article\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-2860849627502538\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3019501113\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n<p align=\"justify\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">Les mod\u00e8les du GIEC pr\u00e9disent une augmentation de leur fr\u00e9quence. Le graphe ci-dessus (tir\u00e9 lui des observations et non pas des mod\u00e8les) indique (courbe du haut) le nombre de temp\u00eates (tropicales) qui atteignent au moins la force des temp\u00eates tropicales (vitesse du vent sup. \u00e0 34 noeuds). La courbe du bas indique le nombre d&rsquo;ouragans dont la force est sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 64 noeuds. Les deux lignes droites vertes ajout\u00e9es servent \u00e0 montrer les moyennes respectives des deux graphes (sup\u00e9rieur et inf\u00e9rieur). Bref le nombre de cyclones n\u2019augmente pas\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/spaw\/images\/ouragans_3.jpg?resize=500%2C326\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"326\" \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">Source \u00e9tude du professeur Ryan Maue (Universit\u00e9 de Floride) : <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.coaps.fsu.edu\/~maue\/tropical\/\">http:\/\/www.coaps.fsu.edu\/~maue\/tropical\/<\/a>\u00a0&#8211;<\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">William M. Gray, sp\u00e9cialiste des ouragans, Ph.D, auteur de tr\u00e8s nombreux articles acad\u00e9miques : pour lui, le r\u00e9chauffement climatique est essentiellement un ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne naturel et non li\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019activit\u00e9 humaine. Il s\u2019est en particulier oppos\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019alarmisme de Gore et du GIEC en mati\u00e8re d\u2019ouragans. Il a ainsi rappel\u00e9 que les ouragans suivaient g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement un cycle multi-d\u00e9cennal et qu\u2019il n\u2019y avait rien d\u2019anormal \u00e0 observer des variations dans leur nombre et leur intensit\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">\u00a0sources : <a href=\"https:\/\/astrosurf.com\/\">http:\/\/astrosurf.com\/<\/a>\u00a0\/ <a href=\"https:\/\/www.matierevolution.fr\/\">http:\/\/www.matierevolution.fr\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"bawpvc-ajax-counter\" data-id=\"5721\">(265)<\/p>\n<!--CusAds0-->\n<div style=\"font-size: 0px; height: 0px; line-height: 0px; margin: 0; padding: 0; clear: both;\"><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Les mod\u00e8les du GIEC pr\u00e9disent une augmentation de leur fr\u00e9quence. Le graphe ci-dessus (tir\u00e9 lui des observations et non pas&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4225,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"Le nombre de cyclones est rest\u00e9 stable de 1972 \u00e0 2010\u2026","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[21],"tags":[1524,922,1868,1766,365,2068,232,1942,4053],"class_list":["post-5721","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-evenement-brutal","tag-activite-humaine","tag-bilan","tag-courbe","tag-erreur","tag-giec","tag-graphique","tag-ouragans","tag-stable","tag-stables","wpcat-21-id"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/ouragans.jpg?fit=180%2C135&ssl=1","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p631RN-1uh","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":3274,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/les-cyclones-sement-la-tempete-chez-les-scientifiques\/","url_meta":{"origin":5721,"position":0},"title":"Les cyclones s\u00e8ment la temp\u00eate chez les scientifiques","author":"Admin","date":"20 janvier 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"Voici un article qui met le trouble chez les scientifiques et dont les mod\u00e8les statistiques sont remis s\u00e9rieusement remis en cause. Bien des donn\u00e9es \u00e9taient dans le flou concernant les ouragans. L'ann\u00e9e cyclonique 2005 apporte la preuve que les mod\u00e8les peuvent \u00eatre erron\u00e9s. Certains jettent l'\u00e9ponge face \u00e0 des \u00e9v\u00e8nements\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Climat&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Climat","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/climat\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/scientifique.jpeg?fit=270%2C400&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":26270,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/comment-une-intensification-rapide-a-donne-naissance-a-deux-ouragans-monstres-en-une-semaine\/","url_meta":{"origin":5721,"position":1},"title":"Comment une intensification rapide a donn\u00e9 naissance \u00e0 deux ouragans monstres en une semaine","author":"Admin","date":"27 septembre 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Les eaux chaudes ont renforc\u00e9 l'ouragan H\u00e9l\u00e8ne dans le golfe du Mexique et l'ouragan John dans le Pacifique oriental. L'un des ouragans les plus \u00e9tendus jamais enregistr\u00e9s a frapp\u00e9 la c\u00f4te du golfe de Floride le 26 septembre sous la forme d'une puissante temp\u00eate de cat\u00e9gorie 4, inondant la c\u00f4te\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Ev\u00e8nement Brutal&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Ev\u00e8nement Brutal","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/evenement-brutal\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/ouragan-Helene1.jpg?fit=1200%2C651&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/ouragan-Helene1.jpg?fit=1200%2C651&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/ouragan-Helene1.jpg?fit=1200%2C651&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/ouragan-Helene1.jpg?fit=1200%2C651&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/ouragan-Helene1.jpg?fit=1200%2C651&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":3974,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/annee-cyclonique-intense-pour-2007\/","url_meta":{"origin":5721,"position":2},"title":"Ann\u00e9e cyclonique intense pour 2007","author":"Admin","date":"6 mai 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"Les scientifiques am\u00e9ricains pr\u00e9disent une saison des ouragans en 2007 intense, avec la formation de 17 temp\u00eates tropicales en Atlantique. D\u2019apr\u00e8s William Gray et Phil Klotzbach, de l\u2019Universit\u00e9 du Colorado, neuf de ces 17 temp\u00eates tropicales pourraient devenir des ouragans. Ces m\u00e9t\u00e9orologues pr\u00e9disent une activit\u00e9 des cyclones tropicaux cette saison\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Ev\u00e8nement Brutal&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Ev\u00e8nement Brutal","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/evenement-brutal\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/katrinaoeil.jpg?fit=400%2C300&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":24072,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/la-noaa-prevoit-une-saison-cyclonique-dans-latlantique-superieure-a-la-normale-en-2022\/","url_meta":{"origin":5721,"position":3},"title":"La NOAA pr\u00e9voit une saison cyclonique dans l&rsquo;Atlantique sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 la normale en 2022","author":"Admin","date":"28 mai 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"La Ni\u00f1a est actuellement en cours, les temp\u00e9ratures atlantiques sup\u00e9rieures \u00e0 la moyenne pr\u00e9parent le terrain pour une saison charg\u00e9e \u00e0 venir. Les pr\u00e9visionnistes du Climate Prediction Center de la NOAA, une division du National Weather Service, pr\u00e9disent une activit\u00e9 cyclonique sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 la moyenne cette ann\u00e9e, ce qui en\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Ev\u00e8nement Brutal&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Ev\u00e8nement Brutal","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/evenement-brutal\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/ouragan-leslie-temepte1.jpg?fit=1200%2C678&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/ouragan-leslie-temepte1.jpg?fit=1200%2C678&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/ouragan-leslie-temepte1.jpg?fit=1200%2C678&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/ouragan-leslie-temepte1.jpg?fit=1200%2C678&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/ouragan-leslie-temepte1.jpg?fit=1200%2C678&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":3765,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/les-typhons-en-2006-el-nino-et-phenomenes-insolites\/","url_meta":{"origin":5721,"position":4},"title":"Les Typhons en 2006, El Nino, et Ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes Insolites","author":"Admin","date":"5 d\u00e9cembre 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"Autant les ouragans (nom employ\u00e9 pour l'Atlantique), n'ont pas \u00e9t\u00e9 nombreux cette ann\u00e9e 2006. Le responsable de cette faible intensit\u00e9 cyclonique serait El Nino.\u00a0Il cisaillerait les vents dans l'atmosph\u00e8re et ainsi bloquerait la naissance de temp\u00eates trop actives dans l'Altantique. Mais l'ann\u00e9e 2006, aura vu un record de Typhons (nom\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;M\u00e9t\u00e9orologie&quot;","block_context":{"text":"M\u00e9t\u00e9orologie","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/meteorologie\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/typhons-2006.jpg?fit=410%2C513&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":2576,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/les-ouragans-se-rapprochent-de-leurope\/","url_meta":{"origin":5721,"position":5},"title":"Les ouragans se rapprochent-ils vraiment de l&rsquo;Europe ?","author":"Admin","date":"14 d\u00e9cembre 2004","format":false,"excerpt":"Pendant longtemps, les Europ\u00e9ens ont observ\u00e9 les ouragans comme des ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes lointains, r\u00e9serv\u00e9s aux Cara\u00efbes, au golfe du Mexique ou \u00e0 la c\u00f4te est des \u00c9tats-Unis. Pourtant, depuis plusieurs ann\u00e9es, les m\u00e9t\u00e9orologues surveillent avec une attention croissante l'\u00e9volution de ces syst\u00e8mes tropicaux dans l'Atlantique. La raison est simple : l'oc\u00e9an\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Ev\u00e8nement Brutal&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Ev\u00e8nement Brutal","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/evenement-brutal\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2004\/12\/Ouragans-europe.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2004\/12\/Ouragans-europe.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2004\/12\/Ouragans-europe.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2004\/12\/Ouragans-europe.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2004\/12\/Ouragans-europe.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5721","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5721"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5721\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5722,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5721\/revisions\/5722"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4225"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5721"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5721"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5721"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}