{"id":5339,"date":"2010-04-21T19:06:38","date_gmt":"2010-04-21T17:06:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/?p=5339"},"modified":"2026-06-08T07:23:02","modified_gmt":"2026-06-08T07:23:02","slug":"un-nouveau-minimum-de-dalton-en-vue","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/un-nouveau-minimum-de-dalton-en-vue\/","title":{"rendered":"Un nouveau minimum de Dalton en vue"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"1665f18d14f35dd9e7566e1a8ac9a3e9\" data-index=\"1\" style=\"float: none; margin:10px 0 10px 0; text-align:center;\">\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\"\r\n     data-ad-layout=\"in-article\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-2860849627502538\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3019501113\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n<p align=\"justify\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">C. de Jager, S. Duhau viennent de faire des pr\u00e9visions des param\u00e8tres du cycle\u00a024, et de ses\u00a0taches solaires ainsi que ce qui en d\u00e9coule. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics.<\/span><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">R\u00e9sum\u00e9. la variabilit\u00e9 solaire est contr\u00f4l\u00e9e par la dynamo interne qui est un syst\u00e8me non lin\u00e9aire. Nous d\u00e9veloppons une m\u00e9thode physico-statistique de pr\u00e9vision de l&rsquo;activit\u00e9 solaire qui prend en compte le caract\u00e8re non lin\u00e9aire de la dynamo solaire. La m\u00e9thode est bas\u00e9e sur les m\u00e9canismes g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement admis de la dynamo et\u00a0nous avons\u00a0r\u00e9cemment d\u00e9couvert les propri\u00e9t\u00e9s syst\u00e9matiques de la variabilit\u00e9 solaire \u00e0 long terme. La modulation d&rsquo;amplitude du cycle de Schwabe dans les composantes de la dynamo du champ magn\u00e9tique peut \u00eatre d\u00e9compos\u00e9es en un niveau de transition invariante et trois types d&rsquo;oscillations autour d&rsquo;elle.<\/span><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">Les r\u00e9gularit\u00e9s que nous observons dans le comportement de ces oscillations au cours du dernier mill\u00e9naire nous permettre de pr\u00e9voir la future activit\u00e9 solaire. Nous trouvons que le syst\u00e8me est actuellement en pleine transition\u00a0du r\u00e9cent grand maximum qui se poursuit\u00a0vers\u00a0autre r\u00e9gime. Cette transition a commenc\u00e9 en 2000 et il est pr\u00e9vu qu&rsquo;au maximum du cycle 24 pour 2014, avec un nombre de taches solaires maximale Rmax = 68 \u00b1 17. A cette \u00e9poque, une p\u00e9riode de faible activit\u00e9 solaire va commencer. Cette p\u00e9riode sera l&rsquo;une des oscillations r\u00e9guli\u00e8res les plus calmes, comme cela s&rsquo;est produit entre 1730 et 1923. La premi\u00e8re de ces oscillations peut m\u00eame se r\u00e9v\u00e9ler aussi forte n\u00e9gativement que ce qui s&rsquo;est pass\u00e9 autour de 1810.\u00a0Dans ce\u00a0cas\u00a0un Grand minimum type Dalton pourrait se d\u00e9velopper. Cet \u00e9pisode tr\u00e8s faible de\u00a0l&rsquo;activit\u00e9 solaire devrait durer au moins un cycle de Gleissberg soit de 60 \u00e0 100 ans.<\/span><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/spaw\/images\/jager.jpg?resize=600%2C252\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"252\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Traduction et adaptation de la Terre du Futur<\/p>\n<p>source : <a href=\"https:\/\/ncwatch.typepad.com\/\">http:\/\/ncwatch.typepad.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"bawpvc-ajax-counter\" data-id=\"5339\">(698)<\/p>\n<!--CusAds0-->\n<div style=\"font-size: 0px; height: 0px; line-height: 0px; margin: 0; padding: 0; clear: both;\"><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>C. de Jager, S. Duhau viennent de faire des pr\u00e9visions des param\u00e8tres du cycle\u00a024, et de ses\u00a0taches solaires ainsi que&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5340,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[20,24],"tags":[1152,41,70,1203,708,170,37],"class_list":["post-5339","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climat","category-soleil","tag-activite-solaire","tag-climat","tag-cycle","tag-dalton","tag-pag","tag-refroidissement-climatique","tag-soleil","wpcat-20-id","wpcat-24-id"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/dalton.jpg?fit=350%2C149&ssl=1","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p631RN-1o7","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":4500,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/ou-sont-passees-les-taches-solaires\/","url_meta":{"origin":5339,"position":0},"title":"Ou sont pass\u00e9es les taches solaires ?","author":"Admin","date":"14 juillet 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"Depuis d\u00e9but 2008, date officielle du nouveau cycle solaire not\u00e9 num\u00e9ro 24. Il est aussi pr\u00e9sent par son absence. Except\u00e9 le vent solaire qui s'est\u00a0bri\u00e8vement accru d'un trou coronal, il n'y a presque aucune activit\u00e9 solaire significative. \u00a0\u00a9NASA Le soleil reste tr\u00e8s calme. Il est normal que notre soleil ait\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Soleil&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Soleil","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/soleil\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/spaw\/images\/may_08_1.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/spaw\/images\/may_08_1.png?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/spaw\/images\/may_08_1.png?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":7655,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/la-terre-pourrait-connaitre-un-nouveau-petit-age-glaciaire-des-2030\/","url_meta":{"origin":5339,"position":1},"title":"La Terre pourrait conna\u00eetre un nouveau petit age glaciaire d\u00e8s 2030","author":"Admin","date":"11 juillet 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Une nouvelle d\u00e9couverte sur les cycles solaires pr\u00e9voit un ralentissement consid\u00e9rable de l'activit\u00e9 de notre \u00e9toile. L\u2019activit\u00e9 de notre soleil va-t-elle brutalement ralentir dans les ann\u00e9es 2030? C\u2019est une hypoth\u00e8se consid\u00e9r\u00e9e comme tr\u00e8s probable par des scientifiques selon une \u00e9tude rendue publique par la Royal Astronomical Society britannique. Elle s\u2019appuie\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Climat&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Climat","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/climat\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/soleil3.gif?fit=512%2C512&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":25924,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/le-champ-magnetique-du-soleil-nait-etonnamment-pres-de-la-surface-selon-une-etude\/","url_meta":{"origin":5339,"position":2},"title":"Le champ magn\u00e9tique du Soleil na\u00eet \u00e9tonnamment pr\u00e8s de la surface, selon une \u00e9tude","author":"Admin","date":"29 mai 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Nous venons peut-\u00eatre de faire un grand pas vers la r\u00e9solution d'un myst\u00e8re qui a d\u00e9concert\u00e9 les scientifiques pendant plus d'un si\u00e8cle. Depuis la d\u00e9couverte du champ magn\u00e9tique solaire en 1908, nous nous sommes efforc\u00e9s de comprendre o\u00f9 il est g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9 dans le Soleil, dans une r\u00e9gion connue sous le\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Soleil&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Soleil","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/soleil\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Soleil-le-20-mai-2024.jpg?fit=642%2C642&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Soleil-le-20-mai-2024.jpg?fit=642%2C642&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/Soleil-le-20-mai-2024.jpg?fit=642%2C642&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":4018,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/le-refroidissement-global-est-en-cours\/","url_meta":{"origin":5339,"position":3},"title":"Le refroidissement global est en cours !","author":"Admin","date":"5 juin 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"Pr\u00e9vision solaire de la baisse prochaine de la temp\u00e9rature terrestre par David Archibald de la NASA. Voici une pr\u00e9vision solaire de ce physicien de la NASA qui nous annonce donc une prochaine d\u00e9cennie qui nous apportera un refroidissement sur l'ensemble du globe. Et si ce refroidissement avait commenc\u00e9 ! Si\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Soleil&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Soleil","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/soleil\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16186,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/la-russie-et-legypte-se-preparent-a-limminence-dune-mini-ere-glaciaire\/","url_meta":{"origin":5339,"position":4},"title":"La Russie et l&rsquo;Egypte se pr\u00e9parent \u00e0 l&rsquo;imminence d&rsquo;une mini-\u00e8re glaciaire","author":"Admin","date":"12 janvier 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"La vie sur Terre a toujours \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9pendante des conditions du Soleil, les scientifiques passent donc beaucoup de temps \u00e0 \u00e9tudier son activit\u00e9. Une r\u00e9cente annonce de scientifiques du solaire sugg\u00e8re que le Soleil pourrait bient\u00f4t entrer dans une p\u00e9riode d'activit\u00e9 r\u00e9duite significative, causant probablement un mini \u00e2ge glaciaire d'ici\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Climat&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Climat","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/climat\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/climat-banquise.jpg?fit=1000%2C625&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/climat-banquise.jpg?fit=1000%2C625&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/climat-banquise.jpg?fit=1000%2C625&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/climat-banquise.jpg?fit=1000%2C625&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":938,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/vers-une-disparition-de-lactivite-solaire\/","url_meta":{"origin":5339,"position":5},"title":"Vers une disparition de l&rsquo;activit\u00e9 solaire","author":"Admin","date":"21 juin 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Ce billet fait \u00e9cho \u00e0 une br\u00e8ve parue tout r\u00e9cemment (le 14 septembre 2010) dans le journal Science, (Science Now), intitul\u00e9e : \"Say Goodbye to sunspots ?\", soit \"Faut-il dire adieu aux taches solaires ? \" Deux astro-physiciens am\u00e9ricains, Matthew Penn et William Livingston, sp\u00e9cialistes du soleil au National Solar\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Soleil&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Soleil","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/soleil\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"maunder","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/06\/maunder.jpg?fit=600%2C300&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/06\/maunder.jpg?fit=600%2C300&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/06\/maunder.jpg?fit=600%2C300&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5339","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5339"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5339\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5341,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5339\/revisions\/5341"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5340"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5339"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5339"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5339"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}