{"id":4227,"date":"2007-12-11T11:49:40","date_gmt":"2007-12-11T09:49:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil1\/?p=4227"},"modified":"2015-04-12T11:51:02","modified_gmt":"2015-04-12T09:51:02","slug":"nouvelle-etude-le-prochain-cycle-solaire-pourrait-etre-tres-bas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/nouvelle-etude-le-prochain-cycle-solaire-pourrait-etre-tres-bas\/","title":{"rendered":"Nouvelle \u00e9tude, le prochain cycle solaire pourrait \u00eatre tr\u00e8s bas"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"1665f18d14f35dd9e7566e1a8ac9a3e9\" data-index=\"1\" style=\"float: none; margin:10px 0 10px 0; text-align:center;\">\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\"\r\n     data-ad-layout=\"in-article\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-2860849627502538\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3019501113\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n<p align=\"justify\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">Voici donc une nouvelle \u00e9tude qui d\u00e9montrerait la v\u00e9racit\u00e9 des propos de David Archibald, le prochain cycle solaire n\u00b024 pourrait \u00eatre tr\u00e8s bas, et apporterait donc un refroidissement plan\u00e9taire.<\/span><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><em>Ici t\u00e2ches solaires en direct<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">Lueur d&rsquo;espoir : Le soleil peut-il nous sauver du r\u00e9chauffement global ?<br \/>\nLa baisse de l&rsquo;intensit\u00e9 solaire a-t-elle pu nous sauver du r\u00e9chauffement global ? David Whitehouse explique pourquoi l&rsquo;intensit\u00e9 solaire peut \u00eatre la cl\u00e9 du combat du changement climatique.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">Quelque chose arrive \u00e0 notre Soleil. Il doit avoir des taches solaires, ou plut\u00f4t un cycle d&rsquo;activit\u00e9 qui signifie qu&rsquo;elles vont venir. Apr\u00e8s une p\u00e9riode particuli\u00e8rement de forte activit\u00e9 au 20\u00e8me si\u00e8cle, notre soleil, exceptionnellement et soudainement, s&rsquo;est orient\u00e9 vers une p\u00e9riode plus calme. Les mois ont pass\u00e9 sans t\u00e2ches \u00e9videntes sur son disque. Nous sommes \u00e0 la fin d&rsquo;un cycle d&rsquo;activit\u00e9 et les astronomes attendent les t\u00e2ches solaires pour renvoyer et marquer le d\u00e9but du prochain, le cycle 24. Cela fait maintenant un moment qu&rsquo;ils attendent un signe qu&rsquo;il soit sur son chemin de retour.<\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">Les t\u00e2ches solaires &#8211; t\u00e2ches magn\u00e9tiques fonc\u00e9es sur la surface du Soleil &#8211; viennent et entrent dans un cycle d&rsquo;approximativement 11 ans d&rsquo;activit\u00e9\u00a0d\u00e9couvert en 1843. Il est attribu\u00e9 au mouvement du gaz super chaud et charg\u00e9 \u00e9lectriquement \u00e0 l&rsquo;int\u00e9rieur du Soleil, &#8211; un genre d&rsquo;une bande d&rsquo;un convoyeur interne o\u00f9 les vastes fleuves\u00a0de gaz prennent 40 ans pour circuler de l&rsquo;\u00e9quateur aux p\u00f4les et en arri\u00e8re. D&rsquo;une fa\u00e7on ou d&rsquo;une autre, d&rsquo;une mani\u00e8re pas tr\u00e8s bien comprise, cette circulation produit le cycle de t\u00e2ches solaire dans lequel tous les 11 ans il y a un maximum de t\u00e2ches solaire suivi d&rsquo;un minimum. Mais r\u00e9cemment la circulation interne du Soleil a ralenti. En mai 2006, cette bande du convoyeur avait ralenti en rampant &#8211; une baisse record. Le scientifique David Hathaway de la NASA dit : \u00a0\u00bb Il est pass\u00e9 en bas des diagrammes\u2026 que ceci ait des r\u00e9percussions importantes pour la future activit\u00e9 solaire. \u00a0\u00bb Ce qui est positif, ce n&rsquo;est pas le seul indicateur que a le Soleil.<\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">Les t\u00e2ches solaires peuvent \u00eatre longues ou courtes, faibles ou fortes et parfois elles peuvent dispara\u00eetre compl\u00e8tement. Apr\u00e8s la d\u00e9couverte du cycle, les astronomes ont regard\u00e9 l&rsquo;histoire par des observations pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes et pouvaient voir clairement jusqu&rsquo;\u00e0 ce qu&rsquo;ils aient atteint le XVII\u00e8me si\u00e8cle, quand il semble qu&rsquo;elles ont disparu. Il s&rsquo;est av\u00e9r\u00e9 \u00eatre une vraie absence de t\u00e2ches solaires, non provoqu\u00e9e par un manque d&rsquo;observations. Les astronomes l&rsquo;ont appel\u00e9 \u00a0\u00bb le minimum de Maunder. \u00a0\u00bb C&rsquo;\u00e9tait une d\u00e9couverte \u00e9tonnante : notre Soleil peut changer. Entre 1645 et 1715, les t\u00e2ches solaires \u00e9taient rares. On a observ\u00e9 environ 50 ; il devrait y en avoir eu 50.000.<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/spaw\/images\/constante-solaire1.gif?resize=500%2C206\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"206\" \/><\/p>\n<p align=\"center\">source : <a href=\"http:\/\/la.climatologie.free.fr\/soleil\/soleil.htm\">http:\/\/la.climatologie.free.fr\/soleil\/soleil.htm<\/a><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">Depuis le cycle de taches solaire a \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9couvert, des chercheurs ont recherch\u00e9 son rythme superpos\u00e9 au climat de la Terre. Dans certains cas il est \u00e0 des niveaux bas. Mais il y avait quelque chose d&rsquo;\u00e9trange au sujet du moment o\u00f9 les t\u00e2ches solaires ont disparu et qui a laiss\u00e9 les scientifiques reconsid\u00e9rer que si le comportement peu commun du soleil\u00a0\u00e9tait responsable\u00a0 sur le fait que le XVII\u00e8me si\u00e8cle \u00e9tait \u00e9galement un moment o\u00f9 l&rsquo;h\u00e9misph\u00e8re nord de la Terre a \u00e9t\u00e9 refroidie avec des cons\u00e9quences d\u00e9vastatrices.<\/p>\n<p><center><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.spaceweather.com\/images2007\/17apr07\/midi512_blank.gif\" target=\"_blank\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.spaceweather.com\/images2007\/17apr07\/midi512_blank.gif?resize=500%2C500\" alt=\"Click here for a larger image\" width=\"500\" height=\"500\" \/><\/a><\/center><center><em>Image du Soleil Actuel<\/em><\/center><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">Les scientifiques appellent cet \u00e9v\u00e9nement le \u00ab\u00a0petit age glaciaire \u00a0\u00bb et elle a affect\u00e9 l&rsquo;Europe juste au mauvais moment. En r\u00e9ponse au climat plus b\u00e9nin de la p\u00e9riode chaude m\u00e9di\u00e9vale pr\u00e9c\u00e9demment, la population de l&rsquo;Europe a pu avoir doubl\u00e9. Mais dans la croissance d\u00e9mographique du milieu du XVII eme si\u00e8cle, elle s&rsquo;est arr\u00eat\u00e9e et dans quelques r\u00e9gions, elle est tomb\u00e9e, en partie d\u00fb aux rendements de r\u00e9coltes qui ont \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9duites, provoqu\u00e9es par le changement climatique. Le pain a doubl\u00e9 et a alors quintupl\u00e9 et la faim a affaibli la population. L&rsquo;historien italien Majolino Bisaccioni a propos\u00e9 que la vague de mauvais temps et des r\u00e9volutions pouvait \u00eatre due \u00e0 l&rsquo;influence des \u00e9toiles. Mais l&rsquo;astronome j\u00e9suite Giovanni Battista Riccioli\u00a0 dit que les fluctuations dans le nombre de t\u00e2ches solaires pourraient \u00eatre la cause, parce qu&rsquo;il avait not\u00e9 qu&rsquo;elles \u00e9taient absentes.<\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">Observer des records de t\u00e2ches solaire, cela indique beaucoup de p\u00e9riodes o\u00f9 l&rsquo;activit\u00e9 du Soleil\u00a0a influenc\u00e9\u00a0pour r\u00e9chauffer et refroidir des p\u00e9riodes climatiques. Aussi bien que la peu de p\u00e9riodes glaciaires, il y avait le Soleil faible et l&rsquo;\u00e2ge de fer, le soleil actif et l&rsquo;\u00e2ge du bronze. Les scientifiques ne peuvent pas ais\u00e9ment expliquer comment l&rsquo;activit\u00e9 du Soleil affecte la Terre mais c&rsquo;est une corr\u00e9lation d&rsquo;observations des modes du Soleil qui exercent un effet climatique.<\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">Le consensus actuel du changement climatique est que les gaz \u00e0 effet de serre r\u00e9chauffent le monde et que nous devons agir pour limiter et r\u00e9duire l&rsquo;augmentation de la temp\u00e9rature pr\u00e9vue probablement entre \u00e0 1.8C et \u00e0 4.0C pour la fin du si\u00e8cle. Mais tout au long du 20\u00e8me si\u00e8cle, les cycles solaires avaient augment\u00e9 avec force. Presque chacun convient que dans toute la majeure partie du si\u00e8cle dernier l&rsquo;influence solaire \u00e9tait significative. Les \u00e9tudes prouvent que vers la fin du 20\u00e8me si\u00e8cle l&rsquo;activit\u00e9 du Soleil a pu avoir \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e0 son plus haut niveau depuis plus de 8.000 ans. D&rsquo;autres param\u00e8tres solaires avaient aussi chang\u00e9, comme le champ magn\u00e9tique que le Soleil projette, qui a presque doubl\u00e9 pendant le dernier si\u00e8cle. Mais d&rsquo;autre part les choses ont tourn\u00e9. Dans seulement la derni\u00e8re d\u00e9cennie, le Soleil a commenc\u00e9 un d\u00e9clin dans son activit\u00e9, et le retard du cycle 24 est un indicateur.<\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">Les astronomes observent le Soleil, esp\u00e9rant voir les premiers indicateurs du cycle 24. Il devait arriv\u00e9 en d\u00e9cembre 2006. L&rsquo;administration oc\u00e9anique des Etats-Unis et atmosph\u00e9rique nationale (NOAA) a pr\u00e9vu qu&rsquo;elle commencerait en mars 2007. Maintenant ils estiment mars 2008, mais ils devront bient\u00f4t pr\u00e9voir cela encore plus tard. Les premi\u00e8res indications que le Soleil \u00e9merge de son minimum actuel, cela sera l&rsquo;aspect de petites t\u00e2ches \u00e0 des latitudes \u00e9lev\u00e9es. Elles se produisent habituellement environ 12-20 mois avant le d\u00e9but d&rsquo;un nouveau cycle. Ces t\u00e2ches ne sont pas encore apparues, ainsi le cycle 24 ne commencera probablement pas avant 2009 au plus t\u00f4t. Plus nous devons attendre le cycle 24 longtemps, plus il sera faible. Un tel comportement est habituellement suivi de temp\u00e9ratures plus fra\u00eeches sur Terre.<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/laterredufutur.com\/spaw\/images\/solardriver1.jpg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">Pr\u00e9vision solaire de la baisse prochaine de la temp\u00e9rature terrestre par David Archibald de la NASA.<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/laterredufutur.com\/spaw\/images\/solardriver6.jpg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">\n<p align=\"justify\">La d\u00e9cennie pass\u00e9e a \u00e9t\u00e9 plus chaude que la pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente. C&rsquo;est le r\u00e9sultat d&rsquo;une augmentation rapide de la temp\u00e9rature globale entre 1978 et 1998. Les temp\u00e9ratures depuis, leurs moyennes sont rest\u00e9es hautes, bien que r\u00e9guli\u00e8res. Beaucoup de projections climatiques informatiques sugg\u00e8rent que les temp\u00e9ratures globales continueront \u00e0 s&rsquo;\u00e9lever encore quelques ann\u00e9es. Mais ces projections ne prennent pas en consid\u00e9ration le changement du comportement du Soleil. La tardivet\u00e9 du cycle 24 indique que nous pourrions \u00e9crire une p\u00e9riode de basse activit\u00e9 solaire qui peut contrecarrer les augmentations synth\u00e9tiques de la temp\u00e9rature des effets de serre. Quelques membres de l&rsquo;Acad\u00e9mie des Sciences russe disent que nous pouvons \u00eatre au d\u00e9but d&rsquo;une p\u00e9riode comme cela a \u00e9t\u00e9 vu entre 1790 et 1820,<strong> un d\u00e9clin mineur dans l&rsquo;activit\u00e9 solaire appel\u00e9e le minimum de Dalton. Ils estiment que l&rsquo;activit\u00e9 r\u00e9duite du Soleil peut causer une baisse globale de la temp\u00e9rature de 1.5C d&rsquo;ici 2020<\/strong>. C&rsquo;est plus important que la plupart des pr\u00e9visions sensibles du r\u00e9chauffement global synth\u00e9tique au-dessus de cette p\u00e9riode.<\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">\n<p align=\"justify\">Ici Cycle actuel qui est au plus bas&#8230;<\/p><div class=\"1665f18d14f35dd9e7566e1a8ac9a3e9\" data-index=\"2\" style=\"float: none; margin:10px 0 10px 0; text-align:center;\">\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\"\r\n     data-ad-layout=\"in-article\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-2860849627502538\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3019501113\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"80\"><b><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">Month<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td width=\"550\"><span style=\"color: #ffd700;\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarcycle24.com\/graphs\/sunspots\/spotstop.gif\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><b><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">High<\/span><\/b><\/center><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">Low<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"80\"><b><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">Nov 07<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td width=\"550\"><span style=\"color: #ffd700;\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarcycle24.com\/graphs\/sunspots\/nov07.gif\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">15<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">0<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"80\"><b><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">Oct 07<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td width=\"550\"><span style=\"color: #ffd700;\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarcycle24.com\/graphs\/sunspots\/oct07.gif\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">15<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">0<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"80\"><b><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">Sept 07<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td width=\"550\"><span style=\"color: #ffd700;\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarcycle24.com\/graphs\/sunspots\/sep07.gif\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">26<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">0<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"80\"><b><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">August 07<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td width=\"550\"><span style=\"color: #ffd700;\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarcycle24.com\/graphs\/sunspots\/aug07.gif\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">25<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">0<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"80\"><b><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">July 07<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td width=\"550\"><span style=\"color: #ffd700;\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarcycle24.com\/graphs\/sunspots\/jul07.gif\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">44<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">0<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"80\"><b><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">June 07<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td width=\"550\"><span style=\"color: #ffd700;\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarcycle24.com\/graphs\/sunspots\/jun07.gif\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">63<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">0<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"80\"><b><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">May 07<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td width=\"550\"><span style=\"color: #ffd700;\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarcycle24.com\/graphs\/sunspots\/may07.gif\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">56<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">0<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"80\"><b><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">April 07<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td width=\"550\"><span style=\"color: #ffd700;\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarcycle24.com\/graphs\/sunspots\/apr07.gif\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">38<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">0<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"80\"><b><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">March 07<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td width=\"550\"><span style=\"color: #ffd700;\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarcycle24.com\/graphs\/sunspots\/mar07.gif\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">27<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">0<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"80\"><b><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">Feb 07<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td width=\"550\"><span style=\"color: #ffd700;\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarcycle24.com\/graphs\/sunspots\/feb07.gif\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">36<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">0<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"80\"><b><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">Jan 07<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td width=\"550\"><span style=\"color: #ffd700;\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarcycle24.com\/graphs\/sunspots\/jan07.gif\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">52<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">11<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"80\"><b><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">Dec 06<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td width=\"550\"><span style=\"color: #ffd700;\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarcycle24.com\/graphs\/sunspots\/dec06.gif\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">59<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">0<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"80\"><b><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">Nov 06<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td width=\"550\"><span style=\"color: #ffd700;\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarcycle24.com\/graphs\/sunspots\/nov06.gif\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">62<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">0<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"80\"><b><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">Oct 06<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td width=\"550\"><span style=\"color: #ffd700;\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarcycle24.com\/graphs\/sunspots\/oct06.gif\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">50<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">0<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"80\"><b><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">Sept 06<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td width=\"550\"><span style=\"color: #ffd700;\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarcycle24.com\/graphs\/sunspots\/sep06.gif\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">53<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">0<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"80\"><b><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">August 06<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td width=\"550\"><span style=\"color: #ffd700;\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarcycle24.com\/graphs\/sunspots\/aug06.gif\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">48<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">0<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"80\"><b><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">July 06<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td width=\"550\"><span style=\"color: #ffd700;\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarcycle24.com\/graphs\/sunspots\/jul06.gif\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">40<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">0<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"80\"><b><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">June 06<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td width=\"550\"><span style=\"color: #ffd700;\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarcycle24.com\/graphs\/sunspots\/jun06.gif\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">67<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">0<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"80\"><b><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">May 06<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td width=\"550\"><span style=\"color: #ffd700;\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarcycle24.com\/graphs\/sunspots\/may06.gif\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">78<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">0<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"80\"><b><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">April 06<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td width=\"550\"><span style=\"color: #ffd700;\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarcycle24.com\/graphs\/sunspots\/apr06.gif\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">105<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\"><b>14<\/b><\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"80\"><b><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">March 06<\/span><\/b><\/td>\n<td width=\"550\"><span style=\"color: #ffd700;\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.solarcycle24.com\/graphs\/sunspots\/mar06.gif\" alt=\"\" \/><\/span><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">49<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><center><span style=\"color: #ffd700; font-family: verdana; font-size: small;\">0<\/span><\/center><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p align=\"justify\">C&rsquo;est quelque chose que nous devons prendre au s\u00e9rieux parce que ce qui s&rsquo;est produit\u00a0au XVII\u00e8me si\u00e8cle est li\u00e9 pour se reproduire \u00e0 nouveau. Des travaux r\u00e9cents \u00e9tudiant les p\u00e9riodes solaires quand notre soleil perd ses taches solaires, avec des donn\u00e9es sur un autre soleil comme les \u00e9toiles qui peuvent se comporter de la m\u00eame mani\u00e8re, sugg\u00e8rent que notre Soleil puisse passer entre 10 et 25 pour cent de son temps dans cet \u00e9tat. Peut-\u00eatre le retard du cycle 24 pourrait m\u00eame \u00eatre le d\u00e9but d&rsquo;un autre petit \u00e2ge glaciaire. Si oui, alors notre Soleil pourrait arriver pour nous d\u00e9livrer du changement climatique, att\u00e9nuant l&rsquo;influence de l&rsquo;humanit\u00e9 et nous accordant plus de temps pour agir. Cela pourrait m\u00eame \u00eatre le cas, le r\u00e9sultat climatique de la Terre\u00a0d&rsquo;une basse activit\u00e9 solaire retournera plusieurs de nos pr\u00e9tentions sur l&rsquo;influence de l&rsquo;homme sur le changement climatique. Nous ne le savons pas. Nous devons continuer \u00e0 observer le soleil.<\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">\nDr. David Whitehouse est un astronome et l&rsquo;auteur de \u00a0\u00bb The Sun : Une biographie \u00a0\u00bb (John Wiley, 2004)<\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">Seasons of the Sun<\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">Modern Solar Minimum<br \/>\n(2000-?)<\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">Modern Climate Optimum<br \/>\n(1890\u20132000) \u2013 the world is getting warmer. Concentrations of greenhouse gas increase. Solar activity increases.<\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">Dalton Solar Minimum<br \/>\n(1790\u20131820) \u2013 global temperatures are lower than average.<\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">Maunder Solar Minimum<br \/>\n(1645\u20131715) \u2013 coincident with the &lsquo;Little Ice Age&rsquo;.<\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">Sp\u00f6rer Solar Minimum<br \/>\n(1420-1530) \u2013 discovered by the analysis of radioactive carbon in tree rings that correlate with solar activity \u2013 colder weather. Greenland settlements abandoned.<\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">Wolf Solar Minimum<br \/>\n(1280\u20131340) \u2013 climate deterioration begins. Life gets harder in Greenland.<\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">Medieval Solar Maximum<br \/>\n(1075\u20131240) \u2013 coincides with Medieval Warm Period. Vikings from Norway and Iceland found settlements in Greenland and North America.<\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">Oort Solar Minimum<br \/>\n(1010-1050) \u2013 temperature on Earth is colder than average.<\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">There seem to have been 18 sunspot minima periods in the last 8,000 years; studies indicate that the Sun currently spends up to a quarter of its time in these minima.<\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.solarcycle24.com\/\">http:\/\/www.solarcycle24.<\/a><\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.solarcycle24.com\/\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">com\/<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">The Great Frost of 1683: <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.londononline.co.uk\/history\/thames\/4\/\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">http:\/\/www.londononline.co.uk\/history\/thames\/4\/<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">source : <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/news.independent.co.uk\/sci_tech\/article3223603.ece\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">http:\/\/news.independent.co.uk\/sci_tech\/article3223603.ece<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">Traduction et adaptation de la Terre du Futur<\/p>\n<p class=\"bawpvc-ajax-counter\" data-id=\"4227\">(560)<\/p>\n<!--CusAds0-->\n<div style=\"font-size: 0px; height: 0px; line-height: 0px; margin: 0; padding: 0; clear: both;\"><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Voici donc une nouvelle \u00e9tude qui d\u00e9montrerait la v\u00e9racit\u00e9 des propos de David Archibald, le prochain cycle solaire n\u00b024 pourrait&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4219,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[24],"tags":[1152,41,881,3263,119,708,170,37,369],"class_list":["post-4227","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-soleil","tag-activite-solaire","tag-climat","tag-cycles","tag-davide-archibald","tag-nasa","tag-pag","tag-refroidissement-climatique","tag-soleil","tag-taches-solaires","wpcat-24-id"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/soleil3.gif?fit=512%2C512&ssl=1","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p631RN-16b","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":4081,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/hiver-2007-2008\/","url_meta":{"origin":4227,"position":0},"title":"Hiver 2007-2008","author":"Admin","date":"20 juillet 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"On se rappellera de cet article Hiver 2006-2007\u00a0et de qui en a d\u00e9coul\u00e9 L'Hiver 2006-2007, le plus doux depuis 1 si\u00e8cle. Les statistiques sont faites pour \u00eatre contrari\u00e9es. Vue de la Terre, l'influence du Soleil varie principalement selon une p\u00e9riode journali\u00e8re et annuelle. Dans l'absolu, l'activit\u00e9 solaire est r\u00e9gl\u00e9e par\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;M\u00e9t\u00e9orologie&quot;","block_context":{"text":"M\u00e9t\u00e9orologie","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/meteorologie\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/laterredufutur.com\/spaw\/images\/nao.gif?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":4018,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/le-refroidissement-global-est-en-cours\/","url_meta":{"origin":4227,"position":1},"title":"Le refroidissement global est en cours !","author":"Admin","date":"5 juin 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"Pr\u00e9vision solaire de la baisse prochaine de la temp\u00e9rature terrestre par David Archibald de la NASA. Voici une pr\u00e9vision solaire de ce physicien de la NASA qui nous annonce donc une prochaine d\u00e9cennie qui nous apportera un refroidissement sur l'ensemble du globe. Et si ce refroidissement avait commenc\u00e9 ! Si\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Soleil&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Soleil","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/soleil\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4712,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/cycle-solaire-24-ou-minimum-de-dalton\/","url_meta":{"origin":4227,"position":2},"title":"Cycle solaire 24 ou minimum de Dalton","author":"Admin","date":"2 janvier 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"Vers un minimum de Dalton, nous avions vu certains points dans cet article. Depuis maintenant 1 an, le cycle solaire N\u00b024 a d\u00e9but\u00e9, il est toujours aussi pr\u00e9sent par son absence et son manque de t\u00e2ches solaires. Le d\u00e9but du cycle solaire 24 semble\u00a0s'\u00eatre mat\u00e9rialis\u00e9\u00a0puis a\u00a0abruptement disparu. La tache solaire\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Soleil&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Soleil","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/soleil\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/spaw\/images\/cycl3x.gif?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/spaw\/images\/cycl3x.gif?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/spaw\/images\/cycl3x.gif?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":20851,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/le-cycle-solaire-25-a-commence\/","url_meta":{"origin":4227,"position":3},"title":"Le cycle solaire 25 a commenc\u00e9","author":"Admin","date":"24 avril 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Selon David Archibald, la feuille de courant h\u00e9liosph\u00e9rique s'est aplatie, ce qui signifie que le cycle solaire 24 est termin\u00e9 et nous sommes maintenant dans le cycle solaire 25. Le cycle solaire n'est pas termin\u00e9 tant que la nappe de courant h\u00e9liosph\u00e9rique ne s'est pas aplatie. Les donn\u00e9es sont fournies\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Soleil&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Soleil","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/soleil\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/soleil-cycle-25.jpg?fit=800%2C478&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/soleil-cycle-25.jpg?fit=800%2C478&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/soleil-cycle-25.jpg?fit=800%2C478&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/soleil-cycle-25.jpg?fit=800%2C478&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":2173,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/activite-solaire-vers-un-refroidissement-climatique\/","url_meta":{"origin":4227,"position":4},"title":"Activit\u00e9 solaire : vers un refroidissement climatique ?","author":"Admin","date":"23 septembre 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"L\u2019activit\u00e9 solaire des prochaines d\u00e9cennies va-t-elle conduire \u00e0 un refroidissement ? Un aper\u00e7u des derni\u00e8res publications scientifiques. Par le Dr Sebastian L\u00fcning et le professeur Fritz Vahrenholt Rarement le soleil n\u2019a \u00e9t\u00e9 aussi fort qu\u2019au cours des cinq derni\u00e8res d\u00e9cennies. Est-ce juste une co\u00efncidence que le plus grand r\u00e9chauffement des\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Soleil&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Soleil","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/soleil\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5572,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/lactivite-solaire-a-repris-mais-sans-surmenage\/","url_meta":{"origin":4227,"position":5},"title":"L\u2019activit\u00e9 solaire a repris mais sans surmenage","author":"Admin","date":"10 novembre 2010","format":false,"excerpt":"O\u00f9 en est le Soleil ? Sorti au printemps de cette ann\u00e9e d\u2019une torpeur anormalement longue (1), \u00e0 la charni\u00e8re des cycles 23 et 24, il a confirm\u00e9 son r\u00e9veil, mais n\u2019a gu\u00e8re manifest\u00e9 jusqu\u2019ici d\u2019activit\u00e9 d\u00e9bordante Les sunspots (taches solaires), t\u00e9moins les plus \u00e9loquents de ce regain d\u2019activit\u00e9, sont\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Soleil&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Soleil","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/soleil\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/.._spaw_images_soleil-2010.jpg?fit=200%2C230&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4227","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4227"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4227\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4228,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4227\/revisions\/4228"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4219"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4227"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4227"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4227"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}