{"id":2780,"date":"2005-04-20T19:54:39","date_gmt":"2005-04-20T17:54:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/wordpress\/?p=2780"},"modified":"2015-04-03T19:58:14","modified_gmt":"2015-04-03T17:58:14","slug":"saison-cyclonique-intense","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/saison-cyclonique-intense\/","title":{"rendered":"Saison Cyclonique intense"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"1665f18d14f35dd9e7566e1a8ac9a3e9\" data-index=\"1\" style=\"float: none; margin:10px 0 10px 0; text-align:center;\">\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\"\r\n     data-ad-layout=\"in-article\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-2860849627502538\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3019501113\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n<p>Avec le r\u00e9chauffement global, les ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes extr\u00e8mes s&rsquo;amplifieront, la Terre du Futur a \u00e9t\u00e9 cr\u00e9\u00e9 dans ce sens, et nous voil\u00e0 donc pr\u00e9venu. Voici les pr\u00e9visions cycloniques de l&rsquo;ann\u00e9e 2005 selon le professeur Gray de l&rsquo;universit\u00e9 du Colorado.<\/p>\n<p>Avec le r\u00e9chauffement climatique, l&rsquo;augmentation cyclonique n&rsquo;avait pas \u00e9t\u00e9 significative jusqu&rsquo;en 2004. Mais 2004, semble marquer un tournant. Avec l&rsquo;ann\u00e9e 2005, cela devrait confirmer l&rsquo;hypoth\u00e8se selon laquelle l&rsquo;augmentation des \u00e9v\u00e8nements extr\u00eames pourraient s&rsquo;aggraver. Voici les pr\u00e9visions pour cette ann\u00e9e&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>(10\/04) Pr\u00e9vision pour la saison cyclonique 2005 en Atlantique Nord- Comme chaque ann\u00e9e \u00e0 la m\u00eame \u00e9poque le Pr Gray de l&rsquo;Universit\u00e9 du Colorado publie ses pr\u00e9visions pour la saison cyclonique \u00e0 venir sur l&rsquo;Atlantique Nord. Pour rappel ces pr\u00e9visions sont bas\u00e9es sur des \u00e9tudes statistiques pouss\u00e9es des saisons cycloniques pass\u00e9es ainsi que sur une \u00e9tude appronfondie des conditions thermiques du bassin Atlantique Nord.<\/p><div class=\"1665f18d14f35dd9e7566e1a8ac9a3e9\" data-index=\"2\" style=\"float: none; margin:10px 0 10px 0; text-align:center;\">\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\"\r\n     data-ad-layout=\"in-article\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-2860849627502538\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3019501113\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n\n<p>Ainsi, d&rsquo;apr\u00e8s ce chercheur dont la fiabilit\u00e9 des pr\u00e9visions n&rsquo;est plus \u00e0 d\u00e9montrer, il semble qu&rsquo;\u00e0 l&rsquo;instar de l&rsquo;ann\u00e9e 2004, la saison cyclonique 2005 se pr\u00e9sente comme significativement sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 la moyenne des ann\u00e9es pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes : 13 ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes nomm\u00e9s sont pr\u00e9vus (c&rsquo;est-\u00e0-dire des \u00e9v\u00e9nements d&rsquo;intensit\u00e9 sup\u00e9rieure ou \u00e9gal au stade de temp\u00eate tropicale) et que 7 d&rsquo;entre-eux atteindront le satde de cyclone tropical (vents moyens sup\u00e9rieurs ou \u00e9gal 118 km\/h). Parmis ces 7 cyclones il est pr\u00e9vu que 3 d&rsquo;entre eux soient des cyclones de classes sup\u00e9rieures ou \u00e9gales \u00e0 4 (vents moyens sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 178 km\/h). D&rsquo;apr\u00e8s le Pr Gray au moins un cyclone de classe sup\u00e9riere \u00e0 3 touchera les Etats-Unis.<\/p>\n<p>Ces pr\u00e9visions ont \u00e9t\u00e9 revues \u00e0 la hausse par rapport \u00e0 celles publi\u00e9es au mois de d\u00e9cembre qui ne pr\u00e9voyaient \u00ab\u00a0que\u00a0\u00bb 11 ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes nomm\u00e9s. Pour rappel la moyenne \u00e0 long terme sur le bassin Atlantique Nord fait \u00e9tat de 9.6 ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes nomm\u00e9s et de 5.9 cyclones.<\/p>\n<p>sources : http:\/\/www.catnat.net\/ \/ http:\/\/www.aoml.noaa.gov\/hrd\/tcfaq\/F4.html \/ NOAA<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/spaw\/images\/H21.jpeg\" alt=\"\" \/><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/spaw\/images\/H15.jpeg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/spaw\/images\/H32.jpeg\" alt=\"\" \/><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/spaw\/images\/H17.jpeg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/spaw\/images\/ISB2.jpeg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p class=\"bawpvc-ajax-counter\" data-id=\"2780\">(187)<\/p>\n<!--CusAds0-->\n<div style=\"font-size: 0px; height: 0px; line-height: 0px; margin: 0; padding: 0; clear: both;\"><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Avec le r\u00e9chauffement global, les ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes extr\u00e8mes s&rsquo;amplifieront, la Terre du Futur a \u00e9t\u00e9 cr\u00e9\u00e9 dans ce sens, et nous&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2781,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[21,32],"tags":[1250,232,2542],"class_list":["post-2780","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-evenement-brutal","category-meteorologie","tag-1250","tag-ouragans","tag-record-annuel","wpcat-21-id","wpcat-32-id"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/ouragans1.jpeg?fit=320%2C217&ssl=1","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p631RN-IQ","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":3974,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/annee-cyclonique-intense-pour-2007\/","url_meta":{"origin":2780,"position":0},"title":"Ann\u00e9e cyclonique intense pour 2007","author":"Admin","date":"6 mai 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"Les scientifiques am\u00e9ricains pr\u00e9disent une saison des ouragans en 2007 intense, avec la formation de 17 temp\u00eates tropicales en Atlantique. D\u2019apr\u00e8s William Gray et Phil Klotzbach, de l\u2019Universit\u00e9 du Colorado, neuf de ces 17 temp\u00eates tropicales pourraient devenir des ouragans. Ces m\u00e9t\u00e9orologues pr\u00e9disent une activit\u00e9 des cyclones tropicaux cette saison\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Ev\u00e8nement Brutal&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Ev\u00e8nement Brutal","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/evenement-brutal\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/katrinaoeil.jpg?fit=400%2C300&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":4382,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/saison-cyclonique-2008\/","url_meta":{"origin":2780,"position":1},"title":"Saison Cyclonique 2008","author":"Admin","date":"9 avril 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"La saison cyclonique sur le Bassin Atlantique devrait \u00eatre plut\u00f4t active en 2008, apr\u00e8s une ann\u00e9e 2007 \"moyenne\". Apr\u00e8s une ann\u00e9e 2007 assez proche d'une ann\u00e9e \"moyenne\" (15 ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes baptis\u00e9s ce qui est assez important, mais seulement 6 ouragans et un nombre de jours avec cyclone plut\u00f4t faible), l'ann\u00e9e 2008\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Ev\u00e8nement Brutal&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Ev\u00e8nement Brutal","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/evenement-brutal\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/isabel300.jpg?fit=300%2C237&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":5963,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/csu-tropical-forecast-nous-prevoit-une-annee-cyclonique-2015-tres-faible\/","url_meta":{"origin":2780,"position":2},"title":"CSU Tropical Forecast nous pr\u00e9voit une ann\u00e9e cyclonique 2015 tr\u00e8s faible","author":"Admin","date":"21 avril 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"ORLANDO -\u00a0Les premi\u00e8res pr\u00e9visions, pour la saison des ouragans 2015, nous pr\u00e9disent une saison consid\u00e9rablement inf\u00e9rieure \u00e0 la moyenne cette ann\u00e9e, avec seulement sept temp\u00eates pr\u00e9vues. Trois temp\u00eates tropicales et un ouragan majeur de cat\u00e9gorie 3 voire de force sup\u00e9rieur. Les pr\u00e9visions saisonni\u00e8res cycloniques de 2015, publi\u00e9es jeudi 16 avril\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Ev\u00e8nement Brutal&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Ev\u00e8nement Brutal","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/evenement-brutal\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/previsions-ouragans2015.jpg?fit=676%2C456&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/previsions-ouragans2015.jpg?fit=676%2C456&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/previsions-ouragans2015.jpg?fit=676%2C456&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":3274,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/les-cyclones-sement-la-tempete-chez-les-scientifiques\/","url_meta":{"origin":2780,"position":3},"title":"Les cyclones s\u00e8ment la temp\u00eate chez les scientifiques","author":"Admin","date":"20 janvier 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"Voici un article qui met le trouble chez les scientifiques et dont les mod\u00e8les statistiques sont remis s\u00e9rieusement remis en cause. Bien des donn\u00e9es \u00e9taient dans le flou concernant les ouragans. L'ann\u00e9e cyclonique 2005 apporte la preuve que les mod\u00e8les peuvent \u00eatre erron\u00e9s. Certains jettent l'\u00e9ponge face \u00e0 des \u00e9v\u00e8nements\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Climat&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Climat","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/climat\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/scientifique.jpeg?fit=270%2C400&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":3822,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/du-rapport-du-pentagone-a-la-realite\/","url_meta":{"origin":2780,"position":4},"title":"Du Rapport du Pentagone \u00e0 la r\u00e9alit\u00e9","author":"Admin","date":"21 janvier 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"Qui aurait pu dire lors de la lecture du Rapport du Pentagone sorti en Octobre 2003 qu'il y aurait un brin de r\u00e9alit\u00e9 dans ce document. Et pourtant ce sc\u00e9nario, qui\u00a0devait en rester seulement un, est une simple th\u00e8se plausible comme l'avancent leurs auteurs. Ce document qui est toujours contest\u00e9\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Climat&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Climat","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/climat\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2007\/01\/siberie.jpg?fit=406%2C272&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":3151,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/une-saison-cyclonique-hors-norme-bilan\/","url_meta":{"origin":2780,"position":5},"title":"Une saison cyclonique hors norme : Bilan","author":"Admin","date":"3 d\u00e9cembre 2005","format":false,"excerpt":"Katrina, Rita, Wilma... Le cru 2005 des cyclones a battu tous les records dans l'Atlantique nord. Les chiffres parlent d'eux-memes : 28 tempetes tropicales et ouragans, soit quatre de plus qu'en 1933, qui etait deja consideree comme un millesime exceptionnel ; treize ouragans dans la meme saison ; sept ouragans\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Climat&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Climat","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/climat\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/ouragan-2005.jpg?fit=300%2C200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2780","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2780"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2780\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2782,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2780\/revisions\/2782"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2781"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2780"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2780"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2780"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}