{"id":25033,"date":"2023-06-22T12:34:12","date_gmt":"2023-06-22T10:34:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/?p=25033"},"modified":"2023-06-22T12:34:12","modified_gmt":"2023-06-22T10:34:12","slug":"vers-un-el-nino-dune-intensite-exceptionnelle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/vers-un-el-nino-dune-intensite-exceptionnelle\/","title":{"rendered":"Vers un El Ni\u00f1o d&rsquo;une intensit\u00e9 exceptionnelle ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"1665f18d14f35dd9e7566e1a8ac9a3e9\" data-index=\"1\" style=\"float: none; margin:10px 0 10px 0; text-align:center;\">\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\"\r\n     data-ad-layout=\"in-article\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-2860849627502538\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3019501113\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n<p>Un El Ni\u00f1o \u00e0 la puissance record est-il en train de se mettre en place dans l&rsquo;oc\u00e9an pacifique ? C&rsquo;est en tout cas ce que pr\u00e9voit le Bureau de la M\u00e9t\u00e9orologie en Australie, un organisme connu pour la fiabilit\u00e9 de ses pr\u00e9visions concernant le ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne climatique El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n<p>Il n&rsquo;y a plus aucun doute que le ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne El Ni\u00f1o va largement influencer la m\u00e9t\u00e9o mondiale de cette ann\u00e9e 2023, et probablement celle de 2024 \u00e9galement. Mais avec quelle intensit\u00e9 ? Depuis plus d&rsquo;un mois, tous les signaux tendent vers un El Ni\u00f1o assez fort et certains mod\u00e8les m\u00e9t\u00e9o pr\u00e9voient m\u00eame, depuis le printemps, la possibilit\u00e9 d&rsquo;un \u00ab super El Ni\u00f1o \u00bb.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\u201cSpike in ocean heat stuns scientists. But have we breached a climate tipping point?\u201d A very detailed analysis from the experts: <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/5zTjWOJVW6\">https:\/\/t.co\/5zTjWOJVW6<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/WFLA?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@WFLA<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/NJD25pv2MT\">pic.twitter.com\/NJD25pv2MT<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/WeatherProf\/status\/1668633581428822017?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 13, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Le seuil du super El Ni\u00f1o serait pulv\u00e9ris\u00e9 d\u00e8s la fin de l&rsquo;\u00e9t\u00e9<br \/>\nLe BOM, Bureau of Meteorology australien, est l&rsquo;une deux grandes r\u00e9f\u00e9rences mondiales pour la pr\u00e9vision d&rsquo;El Ni\u00f1o, avec la NOAA, l&rsquo;organisme am\u00e9ricain. Et dans leurs derni\u00e8res pr\u00e9visions r\u00e9actualis\u00e9es le 20 juin, les scientifiques australiens n&rsquo;envisagent pas seulement un super El Ni\u00f1o, mais un super El Ni\u00f1o d&rsquo;une intensit\u00e9 absolument exceptionnelle qui va s&rsquo;additionner au r\u00e9chauffement climatique.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Wow!<\/p>\n<p>The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has had both the most extreme and most accurate forecasts of the developing El Ni\u00f1o. But this forecast, just released, is so extreme it&#39;s hard to believe I&#39;m seeing it.<\/p>\n<p>3.0\u00b0C by October. <br \/>3.2\u00b0C by November.<\/p>\n<p>Wow!<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/XwGtgMurnP\">https:\/\/t.co\/XwGtgMurnP<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/t85I7ixl68\">pic.twitter.com\/t85I7ixl68<\/a><\/p><div class=\"1665f18d14f35dd9e7566e1a8ac9a3e9\" data-index=\"2\" style=\"float: none; margin:10px 0 10px 0; text-align:center;\">\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\"\r\n     data-ad-layout=\"in-article\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-2860849627502538\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3019501113\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n\n<p>&mdash; Prof. Eliot Jacobson (@EliotJacobson) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/EliotJacobson\/status\/1671213699875622914?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 20, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Sachant que l&rsquo;on parle d&rsquo;un super El Ni\u00f1o \u00e0 partir d&rsquo;une temp\u00e9rature de +2 \u00b0C compar\u00e9e \u00e0 la normale, dans une zone pr\u00e9cise du Pacifique \u00e9quatorial, voil\u00e0 les pr\u00e9visions du BOM pour les prochains mois :<\/p>\n<p>juillet : +1,8 \u00b0C,<br \/>\nao\u00fbt : + 2,6 \u00b0C,<br \/>\nseptembre : + 2,9 \u00b0C,<br \/>\noctobre : +3 \u00b0C,<br \/>\nnovembre : +3,2 \u00b0C.<br \/>\nUn niveau de chaleur totalement in\u00e9dit dans le Pacifique selon le bureau australien<br \/>\nLa pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente anomalie de chaleur record de cette zone du Pacifique \u00e9tait de +2,6 \u00b0C fin 2015, laquelle a men\u00e9 \u00e0 l&rsquo;ann\u00e9e la plus chaude enregistr\u00e9e au niveau mondial : 2016.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Some comparison to current El Nino this year to 2015. The big difference is water temperatures. Anomaly maps here for the same weeks show how different we are now. That is the big question. Which will win this season if the waters stay warmer. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Hk3pbO7x8H\">https:\/\/t.co\/Hk3pbO7x8H<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/zRpEmfGNus\">pic.twitter.com\/zRpEmfGNus<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Mike&#39;s Weather Page (@tropicalupdate) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/tropicalupdate\/status\/1669331622540263425?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 15, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Depuis le printemps, le BOM ne fait que revoir \u00e0 la hausse ses pr\u00e9visions de temp\u00e9ratures. Si les pr\u00e9visions des australiens se confirment, cela voudrait dire que le El Ni\u00f1o 2023 serait record en terme d&rsquo;intensit\u00e9. Une telle chaleur dans l&rsquo;est du Pacifique aura alors des cons\u00e9quences majeures, non seulement sur la temp\u00e9rature mondiale, mais aussi sur la m\u00e9t\u00e9o r\u00e9gionale du continent am\u00e9ricain, de l&rsquo;Australie, de l&rsquo;Afrique et de l&rsquo;Asie.<\/p>\n<p>source : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.futura-sciences.com\/planete\/actualites\/meteorologie-scientifiques-australiens-envisagent-el-nino-intensite-exceptionnelle-103838\/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/www.futura-sciences.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"bawpvc-ajax-counter\" data-id=\"25033\">(305)<\/p>\n<!--CusAds0-->\n<div style=\"font-size: 0px; height: 0px; line-height: 0px; margin: 0; padding: 0; clear: both;\"><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Un El Ni\u00f1o \u00e0 la puissance record est-il en train de se mettre en place dans l&rsquo;oc\u00e9an pacifique ? C&rsquo;est&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":25034,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"Vers un El Ni\u00f1o d'une intensit\u00e9 exceptionnelle ? @laterredufutur.com Terra Projects","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[20],"tags":[8020,148,1068],"class_list":["post-25033","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climat","tag-8020","tag-el-nino","tag-intensite","wpcat-20-id"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/el-nino-juin-2023.png?fit=1787%2C1085&ssl=1","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p631RN-6vL","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":11996,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/del-nino-a-la-nina\/","url_meta":{"origin":25033,"position":0},"title":"D&rsquo;El Nino \u00e0 la Nina","author":"Admin","date":"29 avril 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"La Ni\u00f1a signifie \u00ab La petite fille \u00bb en espagnol. Sa r\u00e9putation est moins spectaculaire que son fr\u00e8re El Ni\u00f1o, surnomm\u00e9 l\u2019\u00ab enfant terrible de la m\u00e9t\u00e9o \u00bb, mais ses impacts peuvent \u00eatre tout aussi importants dans certaines r\u00e9gions du monde. Un ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne La Ni\u00f1a est caract\u00e9ris\u00e9 par une anomalie\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Climat&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Climat","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/climat\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/elnino-lanina.jpg?fit=690%2C388&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/elnino-lanina.jpg?fit=690%2C388&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/elnino-lanina.jpg?fit=690%2C388&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":3765,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/les-typhons-en-2006-el-nino-et-phenomenes-insolites\/","url_meta":{"origin":25033,"position":1},"title":"Les Typhons en 2006, El Nino, et Ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes Insolites","author":"Admin","date":"5 d\u00e9cembre 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"Autant les ouragans (nom employ\u00e9 pour l'Atlantique), n'ont pas \u00e9t\u00e9 nombreux cette ann\u00e9e 2006. Le responsable de cette faible intensit\u00e9 cyclonique serait El Nino.\u00a0Il cisaillerait les vents dans l'atmosph\u00e8re et ainsi bloquerait la naissance de temp\u00eates trop actives dans l'Altantique. Mais l'ann\u00e9e 2006, aura vu un record de Typhons (nom\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;M\u00e9t\u00e9orologie&quot;","block_context":{"text":"M\u00e9t\u00e9orologie","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/meteorologie\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/typhons-2006.jpg?fit=410%2C513&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":3664,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/el-nino-est-de-retour\/","url_meta":{"origin":25033,"position":2},"title":"El Ni\u00f1o est de retour","author":"Admin","date":"26 septembre 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"NEW YORK - EL Ni\u00f1o,\u00a0le r\u00e9chauffement des eaux \u00e9quatoriales\u00a0de l'oc\u00e9an pacifique qui\u00a0provoque des d\u00e9gats avec des\u00a0r\u00e9percussions atmosph\u00e9riques mondiales,\u00a0vient de se former\u00a0et\u00a0continuera en\u00a02007, a rapport\u00e9 mercredi l'Administration Oc\u00e9anique et Atmosph\u00e9rique Nationale (NOAA)\u00a0. EL Ni\u00f1o\u00a0est d\u00e9j\u00e0 responsable\u00a0d'une saison atlantique\u00a0cyclonique plus\u00a0mod\u00e9r\u00e9e que pr\u00e9vu, a dit un pr\u00e9visionniste de la NOAA. \u00ab EL Ni\u00f1o\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;M\u00e9t\u00e9orologie&quot;","block_context":{"text":"M\u00e9t\u00e9orologie","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/meteorologie\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1940,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/el-nino-le-retour-dun-monstre-meteo\/","url_meta":{"origin":25033,"position":3},"title":"El Nino, le retour d&rsquo;un monstre m\u00e9t\u00e9o","author":"Admin","date":"17 avril 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Si les tendances actuelles se confirment, El Ni\u00f1o pourrait m\u00eame devenir le ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne m\u00e9t\u00e9o plan\u00e9taire le plus monumental de 2014. Les probabilit\u00e9s sont de plus en plus fortes qu'El Ni\u00f1o soit de retour en 2014 \u2013et selon de nouvelles pr\u00e9visions m\u00e9t\u00e9o, le ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne pourrait m\u00eame \u00eatre particuli\u00e8rement vigoureux. Gr\u00e2ce \u00e0\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Climat&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Climat","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/climat\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/04\/laterredufutur.com_photos_el-nino-2014.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":23586,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/el-nino-pourrait-revenir-en-2022\/","url_meta":{"origin":25033,"position":4},"title":"El Nino pourrait revenir en 2022","author":"Admin","date":"26 d\u00e9cembre 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Les conditions de La Ni\u00f1a devant se poursuivre pendant les mois d'hiver et jusqu'au printemps de l'ann\u00e9e prochaine, les pr\u00e9visions pr\u00e9voient \u00e9galement une probabilit\u00e9 accrue d'un \u00e9v\u00e9nement El Ni\u00f1o en 2022. Pour la deuxi\u00e8me ann\u00e9e cons\u00e9cutive, La Ni\u00f1a devrait se poursuivre pendant la saison hivernale et durer jusqu'au printemps. Selon\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Courants Marins&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Courants Marins","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/circulation-oceanique\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/el-nino-1998-2016.jpg?fit=1018%2C551&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/el-nino-1998-2016.jpg?fit=1018%2C551&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/el-nino-1998-2016.jpg?fit=1018%2C551&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/el-nino-1998-2016.jpg?fit=1018%2C551&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":24718,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/le-retour-del-nino\/","url_meta":{"origin":25033,"position":5},"title":"Le retour d&rsquo;El Ni\u00f1o","author":"Admin","date":"5 f\u00e9vrier 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Plusieurs mod\u00e8les pr\u00e9disent le retour d'El Ni\u00f1o en 2023, une ann\u00e9e qui devrait \u00eatre marqu\u00e9e par des anomalies de temp\u00e9rature et d'importants \u00e9pisodes de chaleur. Or, les changements climatiques bouleversent ce ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne naturel et comportent leur part d'inconnu. Explications. Au d\u00e9but du mois, le programme europ\u00e9en Copernicus indiquait dans son\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Climat&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Climat","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/climat\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/elnino1997-2015.jpg?fit=1200%2C651&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/elnino1997-2015.jpg?fit=1200%2C651&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/elnino1997-2015.jpg?fit=1200%2C651&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/elnino1997-2015.jpg?fit=1200%2C651&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/elnino1997-2015.jpg?fit=1200%2C651&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25033","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25033"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25033\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25035,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25033\/revisions\/25035"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25034"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25033"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25033"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25033"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}