{"id":23441,"date":"2021-11-19T17:00:29","date_gmt":"2021-11-19T16:00:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/?p=23441"},"modified":"2021-11-19T08:09:57","modified_gmt":"2021-11-19T07:09:57","slug":"en-2100-nous-serons-8-8-milliards-dhabitants-sur-terre","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/en-2100-nous-serons-8-8-milliards-dhabitants-sur-terre\/","title":{"rendered":"En 2100, nous serons 8.8 milliards d&rsquo;habitants sur Terre"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"1665f18d14f35dd9e7566e1a8ac9a3e9\" data-index=\"1\" style=\"float: none; margin:10px 0 10px 0; text-align:center;\">\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\"\r\n     data-ad-layout=\"in-article\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-2860849627502538\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3019501113\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n<p>L\u2019ann\u00e9e derni\u00e8re, l\u2019ONU estimait que la population mondiale s\u2019\u00e9l\u00e8verait \u00e0 11.2 milliards \u00e0 l\u2019horizon 2100. Une nouvelle \u00e9tude \u00e9met l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se que nous serons en fait 2.4 milliards de moins que pr\u00e9vu.<\/p>\n<p>Une nouvelle \u00e9tude publi\u00e9e dans la revue The Lancet d\u00e9voile une toute nouvelle hypoth\u00e8se : la Terre sera peupl\u00e9e non pas de 11.2 milliards d\u2019individus \u00e0 l\u2019horizon 2100 mais de 8.8 milliards. Gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 une nouvelle m\u00e9thode de projection appliqu\u00e9e pendant deux ans, les chercheurs de l\u2019Institute for health metrics and evaluation ont \u00e9tudi\u00e9 les mouvements de population, la fertilit\u00e9, la mortalit\u00e9 et ils sont arriv\u00e9s \u00e0 cette conclusion.<\/p>\n<p>\u00ab Nous avons mod\u00e9lis\u00e9 et produit des estimations par \u00e2ge et par sexe pour chacun des 195 pays entre 2018 et 2100 \u00bb explique Stein Emil Vollset, auteur principal de l\u2019\u00e9tude et professeur au d\u00e9partement des sciences des mesures de la sant\u00e9 de la facult\u00e9 de m\u00e9decine de l\u2019Universit\u00e9 de Washington. Pour rappel, la population mondiale actuelle est estim\u00e9e \u00e0 7.8 milliards d\u2019individus.<\/p>\n<p>L\u2019\u00e9tude montre qu\u2019\u00e0 partir de 2064, la population mondiale conna\u00eetra un d\u00e9clin. D\u2019apr\u00e8s les pr\u00e9dictions, 9.3 milliards d\u2019habitants peupleront la Terre \u00e0 cette date-l\u00e0. \u00ab Nous pr\u00e9voyons que sur les 195 pays que nous avons test\u00e9s, 183 auront des taux de f\u00e9condit\u00e9 inf\u00e9rieurs au niveau de remplacement (de 2,1 enfants par femme) d&rsquo;ici 2100.<\/p>\n<p>La baisse de la f\u00e9condit\u00e9 sera le principal moteur du d\u00e9clin de la population mondiale \u00e0 partir de 2064. \u00bb affirme alors le professeur Vollset. \u00ab Et le fait que les femmes aient de plus en plus acc\u00e8s \u00e0 l&rsquo;\u00e9ducation ainsi qu\u2019\u00e0 des moyens de contraception sera un des facteurs de ce d\u00e9clin \u00bb poursuit-il.<\/p><div class=\"1665f18d14f35dd9e7566e1a8ac9a3e9\" data-index=\"2\" style=\"float: none; margin:10px 0 10px 0; text-align:center;\">\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\"\r\n     data-ad-layout=\"in-article\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-2860849627502538\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3019501113\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n\n<p>Selon l&rsquo;\u00e9tude, pour 23 pays, dont la Tha\u00eflande, la Cor\u00e9e du Sud, l\u2019Espagne et le Japon, une baisse de la population sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 50 % est \u00e0 pr\u00e9voir. \u00c0 l\u2019inverse, les pays sub-sahariens verront leur population tripler. Le Nig\u00e9ria deviendra le deuxi\u00e8me pays le plus peupl\u00e9 du monde derri\u00e8re l\u2019Inde \u00e0 la fin du si\u00e8cle, 800 d\u2019individus devraient vivre sur le sol nig\u00e9rian et ce pays s\u2019imposera alors comme la 9e puissance \u00e9conomique mondiale avec une population active qui passera de 86 millions aujourd&rsquo;hui \u00e0 plus de 450 millions en 2100.<\/p>\n<p>\u00ab Ces changements vont \u00e9galement remanier l&rsquo;ordre hi\u00e9rarchique en mati\u00e8re de poids \u00e9conomique \u00bb affirment les chercheurs dans leur publication.<\/p>\n<p>D&rsquo;ici 2050, le produit int\u00e9rieur brut de la Chine d\u00e9passera celui des \u00c9tats-Unis, mais retombera \u00e0 la deuxi\u00e8me place d&rsquo;ici 2100, pr\u00e9voient les chercheurs.<\/p>\n<p>Un nombre plus r\u00e9duit de la population aura pour cons\u00e9quence de r\u00e9duire les projections d&rsquo;\u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effet de serre, et donc de limiter les pressions sur les syst\u00e8mes alimentaires.<\/p>\n<p>\u00ab Nous ne sommes pas encore en capacit\u00e9 de pr\u00e9voir les cons\u00e9quences exactes sur l\u2019impact des habitats naturels, ou en termes d\u2019\u00e9nergie mais nous pr\u00e9voyons d\u2019int\u00e9grer les changements climatiques dans nos pr\u00e9visions, lors de nos prochains travaux \u00bb conclut Stain Emil Vollset.<\/p>\n<p>Sources : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nationalgeographic.fr\/sciences\/2020\/07\/nous-serons-88-milliards-en-2100-soit-24-milliards-de-moins-que-prevu\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/www.nationalgeographic.fr<\/a> \/ <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736(20)30677-2\/fulltext\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"bawpvc-ajax-counter\" data-id=\"23441\">(1754)<\/p>\n<!--CusAds0-->\n<div style=\"font-size: 0px; height: 0px; line-height: 0px; margin: 0; padding: 0; clear: both;\"><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>L\u2019ann\u00e9e derni\u00e8re, l\u2019ONU estimait que la population mondiale s\u2019\u00e9l\u00e8verait \u00e0 11.2 milliards \u00e0 l\u2019horizon 2100. Une nouvelle \u00e9tude \u00e9met l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":22788,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"En #2100, nous serons 8.8 milliards d'habitants sur #Terre @laterredufutur.com Terra Projects","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[31],"tags":[1278,5263,729,736,731],"class_list":["post-23441","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-divers","tag-1278","tag-habitants","tag-humain","tag-nombre","tag-population","wpcat-31-id"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/population-mondiale.jpg?fit=960%2C606&ssl=1","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p631RN-665","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":24325,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/un-monde-depeuple\/","url_meta":{"origin":23441,"position":0},"title":"Un monde d\u00e9peupl\u00e9","author":"Admin","date":"25 ao\u00fbt 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Nous ne serons plus que 4 milliards en 2100 : une \u00e9tude anticipe une baisse d\u00e9mographique in\u00e9dite. Selon James Pomeroy nous seront que 4 milliards en 2100 et non pas 10 milliards. Pour lui la natalit\u00e9 devrait baisser drastiquement et la mortalit\u00e9 devrait quant \u00e0 elle \u00eatre d\u00e9cupl\u00e9 en raison\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Monde Futur&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Monde Futur","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/monde-futur\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/population-mondiale.jpg?fit=960%2C606&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/population-mondiale.jpg?fit=960%2C606&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/population-mondiale.jpg?fit=960%2C606&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/population-mondiale.jpg?fit=960%2C606&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":21137,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/vers-un-monde-avec-88-milliards-dhabitants-en-2100\/","url_meta":{"origin":23441,"position":1},"title":"Vers un monde avec 8,8 milliards d&rsquo;habitants en 2100","author":"Admin","date":"15 juillet 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"La population mondiale devrait d\u00e9cliner d\u00e8s la deuxi\u00e8me moiti\u00e9 du si\u00e8cle pour atteindre 8,8 milliards en 2100, soit 2 milliards de moins que les projections de l'ONU, selon une \u00e9tude in\u00e9dite qui pr\u00e9dit des bouleversements dans l'\u00e9quilibre mondial et au sein des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s. Le chiffre a fait grand bruit lors\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Monde Futur&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Monde Futur","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/monde-futur\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/population-mondiale.jpg?fit=1024%2C632&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/population-mondiale.jpg?fit=1024%2C632&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/population-mondiale.jpg?fit=1024%2C632&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/population-mondiale.jpg?fit=1024%2C632&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":22786,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/pour-la-premiere-fois-depuis-des-siecles-la-population-du-monde-diminuera-en-quelques-decennies\/","url_meta":{"origin":23441,"position":2},"title":"Pour la premi\u00e8re fois depuis des si\u00e8cles, la population du monde diminuera en quelques d\u00e9cennies","author":"Admin","date":"24 juillet 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Pour la premi\u00e8re fois dans l'histoire moderne, la population mondiale devrait diminuer au cours du prochain si\u00e8cle, ce qui entra\u00eenera une \"r\u00e9volution dans l'histoire de notre civilisation humaine\" et de profonds changements dans la fa\u00e7on dont les gens vivent leur vie. La population mondiale s'\u00e9l\u00e8ve actuellement \u00e0 environ 7,8 milliards\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Monde Futur&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Monde Futur","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/monde-futur\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/population-mondiale.jpg?fit=960%2C606&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/population-mondiale.jpg?fit=960%2C606&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/population-mondiale.jpg?fit=960%2C606&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/population-mondiale.jpg?fit=960%2C606&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":19310,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/le-monde-aura-109-milliards-dhumains-en-2100\/","url_meta":{"origin":23441,"position":3},"title":"Le monde aura 10,9 milliards d&rsquo;humains en 2100","author":"Admin","date":"11 octobre 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"La division de la population des Nations Unies vient de rendre publiques ses nouvelles pr\u00e9visions d\u00e9mographiques au niveau mondial, \u00e0 l'horizon 2100. Ces donn\u00e9es sont actualis\u00e9es tous les deux ans, et figurent parmi les plus fiables en mati\u00e8re de mortalit\u00e9, f\u00e9condit\u00e9, vieillissement des populations et croissance d\u00e9mographique. Le centre de\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Monde Futur&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Monde Futur","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/monde-futur\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/population.jpg?fit=800%2C450&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/population.jpg?fit=800%2C450&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/population.jpg?fit=800%2C450&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/population.jpg?fit=800%2C450&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":577,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/un-monde-de-7-milliards-dhabitants\/","url_meta":{"origin":23441,"position":4},"title":"Un monde de 7 milliards d&rsquo;habitants","author":"Admin","date":"18 octobre 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"En 1800, nous \u00e9tions 1 milliard d\u2019hommes sur Terre.\u00a0En 1930, nous \u00e9tions 2 milliards d\u2019hommes sur Terre.\u00a0En 1960, nous \u00e9tions 3 milliards d\u2019hommes sur Terre.\u00a0En 1974, nous \u00e9tions 4 milliards d\u2019hommes sur Terre.\u00a0En 1987, nous \u00e9tions 5 milliards d\u2019hommes sur Terre.\u00a0En 1999, nous \u00e9tions 6 milliards d\u2019hommes sur Terre.\u00a0En 2011,\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Monde Futur&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Monde Futur","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/monde-futur\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"7 milliards","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/10\/billion7.png?fit=550%2C338&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/10\/billion7.png?fit=550%2C338&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/10\/billion7.png?fit=550%2C338&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":26759,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/la-croissance-de-la-population-diminue-rapidement-au-niveau-mondial\/","url_meta":{"origin":23441,"position":5},"title":"La croissance de la population diminue rapidement au niveau mondial","author":"Admin","date":"11 mars 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Alors que l\u2019on pr\u00e9voyait il y a encore une d\u00e9cennie une croissance d\u00e9mographique galopante, celle-ci semble d\u00e9j\u00e0 avoir atteint son pic dans de nombreux pays, ce qui devrait se traduire par une baisse de la population mondiale d\u2019ici la fin du si\u00e8cle. Une f\u00e9condit\u00e9 qui s\u2019effondre En 2024, la population\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Monde Futur&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Monde Futur","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/monde-futur\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/population-mondiale.jpg?fit=1000%2C1000&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/population-mondiale.jpg?fit=1000%2C1000&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/population-mondiale.jpg?fit=1000%2C1000&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/population-mondiale.jpg?fit=1000%2C1000&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23441","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23441"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23441\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":23442,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23441\/revisions\/23442"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22788"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23441"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23441"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23441"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}