{"id":18258,"date":"2019-02-05T14:03:53","date_gmt":"2019-02-05T13:03:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/?p=18258"},"modified":"2019-02-05T14:03:53","modified_gmt":"2019-02-05T13:03:53","slug":"le-cycle-solaire-le-plus-calme-des-200-dernieres-annees","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/le-cycle-solaire-le-plus-calme-des-200-dernieres-annees\/","title":{"rendered":"Le cycle solaire le plus calme des 200 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"1665f18d14f35dd9e7566e1a8ac9a3e9\" data-index=\"1\" style=\"float: none; margin:10px 0 10px 0; text-align:center;\">\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\"\r\n     data-ad-layout=\"in-article\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-2860849627502538\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3019501113\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n<p>Le cycle solaire 24 a eu la plus faible activit\u00e9 solaire depuis le minimum de Dalton vers 1810. Par Frank Bosse et Fritz Vahrenholt.<\/p>\n<p>Notre soleil \u00e9tait \u00e9galement tr\u00e8s peu actif en d\u00e9cembre 2018. Nous d\u00e9passions le 121\u00e8me mois depuis le d\u00e9but du cycle num\u00e9ro 24.<\/p>\n<p>Tous les autres mois ont \u00e9t\u00e9 inf\u00e9rieurs \u00e0 la moyenne. Avec un nombre de taches solaires (SSN) de 3,1 pour la moyenne mensuelle du mois de d\u00e9cembre et un total de 24 jours sans tache (pendant la seconde quinzaine du mois, le soleil \u00e9tait sans tache), nous sommes dans le minimum du milieu de cette fin de cycle.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"18259\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/le-cycle-solaire-le-plus-calme-des-200-dernieres-annees\/cycle-24-cycle5-soleil\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/cycle-24-cycle5-soleil.jpg?fit=569%2C342&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"569,342\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;DH7FB&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;1548515497&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"cycle-24-cycle5-soleil\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/cycle-24-cycle5-soleil.jpg?fit=569%2C342&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-18259\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/cycle-24-cycle5-soleil.jpg?resize=569%2C342&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" width=\"569\" height=\"342\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/cycle-24-cycle5-soleil.jpg?w=569&amp;ssl=1 569w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/cycle-24-cycle5-soleil.jpg?resize=300%2C180&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 569px) 100vw, 569px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Fig. 1: Le cycle solaire 24 &#8211; rouge &#8211; est presque termin\u00e9. Depuis octobre 2017 (cycle cycle 108), nous sommes au minimum et le cycle suivant devrait commencer au d\u00e9but de 2020. La courbe bleue repr\u00e9sente la moyenne mensuelle respective sur les 23 cycles jusqu&rsquo;\u00e0 aujourd&rsquo;hui. La courbe noire (\u00e0 titre de comparaison) SC 5, qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 enregistr\u00e9e vers 1815 et \u00e9tait aussi faible que le cycle actuel.<\/p>\n<p>Le tableau suivant compare tous les cycles observ\u00e9s jusqu&rsquo;\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent:<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"18260\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/le-cycle-solaire-le-plus-calme-des-200-dernieres-annees\/cycles-solaires-depuis-cycle1\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/cycles-solaires-depuis-cycle1.jpg?fit=594%2C353&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"594,353\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;DH7FB&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;1548516080&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"cycles-solaires-depuis-cycle1\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/cycles-solaires-depuis-cycle1.jpg?fit=594%2C353&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-18260\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/cycles-solaires-depuis-cycle1.jpg?resize=594%2C353&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" width=\"594\" height=\"353\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/cycles-solaires-depuis-cycle1.jpg?w=594&amp;ssl=1 594w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/cycles-solaires-depuis-cycle1.jpg?resize=300%2C178&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 594px) 100vw, 594px\" \/><\/p><div class=\"1665f18d14f35dd9e7566e1a8ac9a3e9\" data-index=\"2\" style=\"float: none; margin:10px 0 10px 0; text-align:center;\">\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\"\r\n     data-ad-layout=\"in-article\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-2860849627502538\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3019501113\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n\n<p>Fig. 2: L&rsquo;activit\u00e9 des taches solaires de notre soleil depuis le cycle 1 (1755). Les chiffres sont calcul\u00e9s en additionnant les diff\u00e9rences mensuelles par rapport \u00e0 la moyenne (en bleu dans la Fig.1) jusqu&rsquo;au mois de d\u00e9cembre du cycle en cours 121.<\/p>\n<p>Il est clair que le SC 24 est l\u2019activit\u00e9 la plus basse depuis le minimum de Dalton (SC 5,6,7) vers 1810 lorsqu\u2019on utilise le cycle complet, et pas seulement l\u2019activit\u00e9 maximale pour les pics courts (voir Fig. 1).<\/p>\n<p><span>Quand commencera le nouveau cycle 25?&nbsp;<\/span><span>C&rsquo;est tr\u00e8s difficile \u00e0 dire.&nbsp;<\/span><span>En d\u00e9cembre, un total de 3 taches appartenant au nouveau cycle ont \u00e9t\u00e9 observ\u00e9es car elles sont polaris\u00e9es magn\u00e9tiquement de mani\u00e8re invers\u00e9es \u00e0 celles de l&rsquo;ancien cycle.&nbsp;<\/span><span>En janvier, nous assistons encore \u00e0 une bonne partie de \u00abl&rsquo;ancien cycle\u00bb. Apporter une date au prochain cycle 25 est pour l&rsquo;heure pr\u00e9matur\u00e9e.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Adaptation <a href=\"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\">La Terre du Futur<\/a><\/p>\n<p>sources : <a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/2019\/02\/03\/quietest-solar-cycle-in-200-years-may-put-the-brakes-on-global-warming\/?fbclid=IwAR1_11YwY1ObMSLtwZ71UxEnPrMhsq8D734O0Q8O9Cg5tEVnDyOEy9Q4xa4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/<\/a> \/ <a href=\"http:\/\/notrickszone.com\/2019\/01\/30\/solar-cycle-24-going-down-as-quietest-in-almost-200-years-may-put-the-brakes-on-warming\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">http:\/\/notrickszone.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"bawpvc-ajax-counter\" data-id=\"18258\">(1152)<\/p>\n<!--CusAds0-->\n<div style=\"font-size: 0px; height: 0px; line-height: 0px; margin: 0; padding: 0; clear: both;\"><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le cycle solaire 24 a eu la plus faible activit\u00e9 solaire depuis le minimum de Dalton vers 1810. Par Frank&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":18261,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"Le cycle solaire le plus calme des 200 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es @laterredufutur.com","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[24],"tags":[1152,616,3517,37,369],"class_list":["post-18258","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-soleil","tag-activite-solaire","tag-cycle-24","tag-minimum-de-dalton","tag-soleil","tag-taches-solaires","wpcat-24-id"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/cycle-24-cycle25.png?fit=1440%2C1094&ssl=1","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p631RN-4Ku","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":4712,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/cycle-solaire-24-ou-minimum-de-dalton\/","url_meta":{"origin":18258,"position":0},"title":"Cycle solaire 24 ou minimum de Dalton","author":"Admin","date":"2 janvier 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"Vers un minimum de Dalton, nous avions vu certains points dans cet article. Depuis maintenant 1 an, le cycle solaire N\u00b024 a d\u00e9but\u00e9, il est toujours aussi pr\u00e9sent par son absence et son manque de t\u00e2ches solaires. Le d\u00e9but du cycle solaire 24 semble\u00a0s'\u00eatre mat\u00e9rialis\u00e9\u00a0puis a\u00a0abruptement disparu. La tache solaire\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Soleil&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Soleil","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/soleil\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/spaw\/images\/cycl3x.gif?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/spaw\/images\/cycl3x.gif?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/spaw\/images\/cycl3x.gif?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":7972,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/lactivite-solaire-actuelle-est-plus-faible-que-celle-du-minimum-de-dalton\/","url_meta":{"origin":18258,"position":1},"title":"L&rsquo;activit\u00e9 solaire actuelle est plus faible que celle du minimum de Dalton","author":"Admin","date":"31 ao\u00fbt 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Selon la NASA, le cycle des taches solaires que \u00a0nous traversons - le\u00a0cycle 24 - est le plus faible depuis\u00a0le cycle 14, qui a pris fin en 1906. Cela est inexact, nous dit JH Walker.\"Le probl\u00e8me avec le nombre de taches solaires de la NASA est que ceux-ci sont gonfl\u00e9s\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Soleil&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Soleil","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/soleil\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/sc5_sc24_Laymans-Count-Comparison.png?fit=1200%2C738&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/sc5_sc24_Laymans-Count-Comparison.png?fit=1200%2C738&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/sc5_sc24_Laymans-Count-Comparison.png?fit=1200%2C738&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/sc5_sc24_Laymans-Count-Comparison.png?fit=1200%2C738&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/sc5_sc24_Laymans-Count-Comparison.png?fit=1200%2C738&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":4018,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/le-refroidissement-global-est-en-cours\/","url_meta":{"origin":18258,"position":2},"title":"Le refroidissement global est en cours !","author":"Admin","date":"5 juin 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"Pr\u00e9vision solaire de la baisse prochaine de la temp\u00e9rature terrestre par David Archibald de la NASA. Voici une pr\u00e9vision solaire de ce physicien de la NASA qui nous annonce donc une prochaine d\u00e9cennie qui nous apportera un refroidissement sur l'ensemble du globe. Et si ce refroidissement avait commenc\u00e9 ! Si\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Soleil&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Soleil","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/soleil\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4500,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/ou-sont-passees-les-taches-solaires\/","url_meta":{"origin":18258,"position":3},"title":"Ou sont pass\u00e9es les taches solaires ?","author":"Admin","date":"14 juillet 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"Depuis d\u00e9but 2008, date officielle du nouveau cycle solaire not\u00e9 num\u00e9ro 24. Il est aussi pr\u00e9sent par son absence. Except\u00e9 le vent solaire qui s'est\u00a0bri\u00e8vement accru d'un trou coronal, il n'y a presque aucune activit\u00e9 solaire significative. \u00a0\u00a9NASA Le soleil reste tr\u00e8s calme. Il est normal que notre soleil ait\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Soleil&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Soleil","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/soleil\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/spaw\/images\/may_08_1.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/spaw\/images\/may_08_1.png?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/spaw\/images\/may_08_1.png?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":4648,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/vers-un-minimum-de-dalton\/","url_meta":{"origin":18258,"position":4},"title":"Vers un minimum de Dalton","author":"Admin","date":"22 octobre 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"image de la Seine gel\u00e9e au XIX eme si\u00e8cle. Il ya une autre fa\u00e7on de voir les cycles solaires. Les cycles solaires commencent r\u00e9ellement par l'inversion magn\u00e9tique poche de la cr\u00eate du cycle pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent. Les taches solaires prennent sept ans pour\u00a0devenir \u00e9videntes \u00e0 la surface du soleil. Presque tous les\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Arch\u00e9ologie&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Arch\u00e9ologie","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/archeologie\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/1879-C.jpg?fit=450%2C350&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":848,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/le-cycle-solaire-25-sera-encore-plus-faible-que-prevu\/","url_meta":{"origin":18258,"position":5},"title":"Le cycle solaire 25 sera encore plus faible que pr\u00e9vu","author":"Admin","date":"15 avril 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Les pr\u00e9visions de David Hathaway \u00e9tablissent que le cycle solaire N\u00b025 sera pire que pr\u00e9vu. Pour ceux d'entre vous qui suivent les pr\u00e9visions du cycle solaire de David Hathaway, elles ne sont pas tr\u00e8s bonnes pour le cycle solaire N\u00b025. Le cycle solaire 25 devrait commencer vers la fin de\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Soleil&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Soleil","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/soleil\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"cycle 24","src":"http:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/cycle24.bmp","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18258","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18258"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18258\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18262,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18258\/revisions\/18262"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18261"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18258"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18258"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18258"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}