{"id":13226,"date":"2016-09-06T21:36:03","date_gmt":"2016-09-06T19:36:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/?p=13226"},"modified":"2016-09-06T21:43:08","modified_gmt":"2016-09-06T19:43:08","slug":"hiver-2016-2017-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/hiver-2016-2017-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Hiver 2016-2017"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"1665f18d14f35dd9e7566e1a8ac9a3e9\" data-index=\"1\" style=\"float: none; margin:10px 0 10px 0; text-align:center;\">\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\"\r\n     data-ad-layout=\"in-article\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-2860849627502538\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3019501113\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Apr\u00e8s notre premier article de fin juillet 2016 sur <a href=\"http:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/hiver-2016-2017\/\" target=\"_blank\">les pr\u00e9visions saisonni\u00e8res de notre prochain Hiver 2016-2017<\/a>. Voici une nouvelle tendance\u00a0selon <a href=\"http:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/html\/phpBB3\/memberlist.php?mode=viewprofile&amp;u=318\" target=\"_blank\">Mike<\/a>\u00a0:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">J&rsquo;ai les premiers \u00e9l\u00e9ments pour la tendance de l&rsquo;hiver 2016\/2017 qui pourrait s\u2019av\u00e9rer tr\u00e8s int\u00e9ressant sur l&rsquo;Europe en premi\u00e8re partie. Tout d&rsquo;abord, il y a du changement au niveau du PDO (oscillation d\u00e9cennale pacifique), celui ci est repass\u00e9 dans le n\u00e9gatif au mois d\u2019ao\u00fbt et \u00e0 priori ce n&rsquo;est que le d\u00e9but. Une nouvelle tendance au PDO- ( temporaire ou pas ) est maintenant en route ce qui collabore avec le retour d&rsquo;une faible Nina:<\/p>\n<div class=\"inline-attachment\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<dl class=\"thumbnail\">\n<dt><a href=\"http:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/html\/phpBB3\/download\/file.php?id=2892&amp;mode=view\"><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"sst-anomaly.gif (275.71 Kio) Jamais consult\u00e9\" src=\"http:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/html\/phpBB3\/download\/file.php?id=2892&amp;t=1\" alt=\"sst-anomaly.gif\" \/><\/a><\/dt>\n<\/dl>\n<\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Maintenant ce qu&rsquo;on aimerait savoir c&rsquo;est le type de circulation atmosph\u00e9rique affect\u00e9e par les \u00e9volutions thermiques en voulant parler des zones de surface de l&rsquo;oc\u00e9an influen\u00e7ant les trajectoires du jet stream et je veux surtout parler du mode PNA &#8211; puis la NAO (Oscillation Nord Atlantique) et les tendances par rapport aux autres ann\u00e9es sont bien diff\u00e9rentes par rapport ce qui se passe actuellement. La tendance forte du BDC (circulation stratosph\u00e9rique de Brewer-Dobson) cet \u00e9t\u00e9 et l&rsquo;activit\u00e9 accrue des ondes de Rossby pourraient provoquer la faiblesse du VPS (Vortex Polaire Stratosph\u00e9rique) \u00e0 la fin de l&rsquo;automne et en premi\u00e8re partie d&rsquo;hiver. Ainsi, la tendance vers une NAO- (Oscillation Nord Atlantique)\/AO- (oscillation arctique) est devenue quelque chose de tr\u00e8s probable cette ann\u00e9e. Et sans surprise, le mod\u00e8le CFSv2 montre clairement cette option comme le montre ce sch\u00e9ma:<\/p><div class=\"1665f18d14f35dd9e7566e1a8ac9a3e9\" data-index=\"2\" style=\"float: none; margin:10px 0 10px 0; text-align:center;\">\n<script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\"\r\n     data-ad-layout=\"in-article\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"fluid\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-2860849627502538\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3019501113\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"inline-attachment\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<dl class=\"thumbnail\">\n<dt><a href=\"http:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/html\/phpBB3\/download\/file.php?id=2893&amp;mode=view\"><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"oscillation arctique.jpg (91.54 Kio) Jamais consult\u00e9\" src=\"http:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/html\/phpBB3\/download\/file.php?id=2893&amp;t=1\" alt=\"oscillation arctique.jpg\" \/><\/a><\/dt>\n<\/dl>\n<\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ce qui pourrait provoquer des descentes froides r\u00e9currentes en direction de l&rsquo;Europe Centrale et en M\u00e9diterran\u00e9e sur la p\u00e9riode novembre\/d\u00e9cembre\/janvier. Le QBO (oscillation du sens de la circulation des vents sur l&rsquo;\u00e9quateur) est bien dans sa phase positive mais ce n&rsquo;est toujours pas le cas \u00e0 50 hoa o\u00f9 les vents d&rsquo;Est se poursuivent pour le moment temporairement. Il s&rsquo;av\u00e8re que le QBO+\/faible activit\u00e9 solaire ont tendance \u00e0 provoquer un faible VPS (Vortex Polaire Stratosph\u00e9rique) en premi\u00e8re partie d&rsquo;hiver et plus forte en deuxi\u00e8me partie mais cette phase positive du QBO est beaucoup moins forte que les pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes (en m\u00eame temps on devrait \u00eatre en phase n\u00e9gative) et pourrait peut \u00eatre ralentir davantage les effets de la force du vortex polaire.<br \/>\nEn tout cas, on se dirige vers un hiver bien diff\u00e9rent des trois pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents sur l&rsquo;Europe.<\/p>\n<div class=\"inline-attachment\">\n<dl class=\"thumbnail\">\n<dt><a href=\"http:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/html\/phpBB3\/download\/file.php?id=2894&amp;mode=view\"><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"circulation jet stream.jpg (327.63 Kio) Jamais consult\u00e9\" src=\"http:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/html\/phpBB3\/download\/file.php?id=2894&amp;t=1\" alt=\"circulation jet stream.jpg\" \/><\/a><\/dt>\n<dt><a href=\"http:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/html\/phpBB3\/viewtopic.php?f=7&amp;t=2540&amp;start=20\">Suivi en cours ici<\/a><\/dt>\n<\/dl>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"bawpvc-ajax-counter\" data-id=\"13226\">(4120)<\/p>\n<!--CusAds0-->\n<div style=\"font-size: 0px; height: 0px; line-height: 0px; margin: 0; padding: 0; clear: both;\"><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Apr\u00e8s notre premier article de fin juillet 2016 sur les pr\u00e9visions saisonni\u00e8res de notre prochain Hiver 2016-2017. Voici une nouvelle&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13228,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"#Hiver #2016-2017 @laterredufutur","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[32],"tags":[249,6042,6041,188,56,35,5998,248,1412,152],"class_list":["post-13226","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-meteorologie","tag-ao","tag-circulation-stratospherique-de-brewer-dobson","tag-descentes-froides","tag-europe","tag-france","tag-hiver","tag-hiver-2016-2017","tag-nao","tag-qbo","tag-sst","wpcat-32-id"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/neige-verglas.jpeg?fit=1024%2C560&ssl=1","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p631RN-3rk","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":12945,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/hiver-2016-2017\/","url_meta":{"origin":13226,"position":0},"title":"Hiver 2016-2017","author":"Admin","date":"28 juillet 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Les hivers se succ\u00e8dent mais ne se ressemblent pas. Apr\u00e8s 3\u00a0hivers qui furent contrast\u00e9s par le c\u00f4t\u00e9 temp\u00e9tueux, doux, voire tr\u00e8s pluvieux sur ce dernier, l'hiver 2016-2017 pourrait\u00a0marquer sa diff\u00e9rence. Mais en terme d'orientation des flux, il pourrait rester tr\u00e8s semblable. Nous avions fait juste dans les pr\u00e9visions saisonni\u00e8res de\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;M\u00e9t\u00e9orologie&quot;","block_context":{"text":"M\u00e9t\u00e9orologie","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/meteorologie\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/07\/hiver-2016-2017.png?fit=624%2C272&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/07\/hiver-2016-2017.png?fit=624%2C272&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/07\/hiver-2016-2017.png?fit=624%2C272&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":4974,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/hiver-2009-2010\/","url_meta":{"origin":13226,"position":1},"title":"Hiver 2009-2010","author":"Admin","date":"27 juillet 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"Le Soleil n'a jamais \u00e9t\u00e9 aussi calme, tout le monde en parle actuellement et vient m\u00eame de faire la une d'un mensuel tr\u00e8s connu (Ciel et Espace). Cette intensit\u00e9 solaire favorise le flux des rayons cosmiques \u00e0 atteindre la Terre. De s\u00e9rieux indices tenteraient \u00e0 d\u00e9montrer un lien entre rayons\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;M\u00e9t\u00e9orologie&quot;","block_context":{"text":"M\u00e9t\u00e9orologie","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/meteorologie\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/2010.jpg?fit=558%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/2010.jpg?fit=558%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/2010.jpg?fit=558%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13995,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/nouvelles-previsions-saisonnieres-de-gavsweathervids-uk\/","url_meta":{"origin":13226,"position":2},"title":"Nouvelles pr\u00e9visions saisonni\u00e8res de GavsWeatherVids UK","author":"Admin","date":"15 novembre 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Ces pr\u00e9visions ont \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9alis\u00e9es\u00a0le 13 Novembre 2016, et c'est \u00e9galement la neuvi\u00e8me\u00a0mise \u00e0 jour de Gavsweathervids.com\u00a0UK qui en contiendra onze pour l' hiver 2016\/17. En observant des \u00e9l\u00e9ments comme les anomalies de la temp\u00e9rature de la surface de la mer, l'activit\u00e9 solaire, la couverture de neige sib\u00e9rienne et plus\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;M\u00e9t\u00e9orologie&quot;","block_context":{"text":"M\u00e9t\u00e9orologie","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/meteorologie\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/octobre2016-centre-action-meteo.jpg?fit=588%2C432&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/octobre2016-centre-action-meteo.jpg?fit=588%2C432&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/octobre2016-centre-action-meteo.jpg?fit=588%2C432&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":8373,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/un-modele-meteo-japonais-nous-annonce-a-nouveau-un-hiver-2015-2016-froid-sur-leurope\/","url_meta":{"origin":13226,"position":3},"title":"Un mod\u00e8le m\u00e9t\u00e9o japonais nous annonce \u00e0 nouveau un hiver 2015-2016 froid sur l&rsquo;Europe","author":"Admin","date":"25 septembre 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Le mod\u00e8le japonais \"seizoensweermodel jamstec\" de ce mois a sorti cette tendance pour l'hiver prochain 2015-2016 (d\u00e9cembre \u00e0 f\u00e9vrier). Ce sc\u00e9nario concernerait l'Europe de l'ouest et du nord. Voici la carte ci dessous : Ce mod\u00e8le rejoint donc les pr\u00e9visionnistes m\u00e9t\u00e9o allemands et italiens que nous avons vu ICI Discussions\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;M\u00e9t\u00e9orologie&quot;","block_context":{"text":"M\u00e9t\u00e9orologie","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/meteorologie\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/previsionseurope-2015-20161.png?fit=755%2C477&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/previsionseurope-2015-20161.png?fit=755%2C477&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/previsionseurope-2015-20161.png?fit=755%2C477&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/previsionseurope-2015-20161.png?fit=755%2C477&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":8143,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/previsions-des-futures-chutes-de-neige-pour-lhiver-2015-2016\/","url_meta":{"origin":13226,"position":4},"title":"Pr\u00e9visions des futures chutes de neige pour l&rsquo;hiver 2015-2016","author":"Admin","date":"9 septembre 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Selon le dernier mod\u00e8le des pr\u00e9visions de POAMA, il poursuit sa tendance vers une\u00a0bonne pr\u00e9vision de l'hiver qui nous arrive, le mod\u00e8le saisonnier est soutenu aussi par la NASA. Le positionnement des 500mb et du classique El Nino va se faire ressentir aussi avec des anomalies de chutes de neige,\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;M\u00e9t\u00e9orologie&quot;","block_context":{"text":"M\u00e9t\u00e9orologie","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/meteorologie\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/previsions-anomalies-chutes-de-neige-monde-2015-2016.png?fit=1200%2C796&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/previsions-anomalies-chutes-de-neige-monde-2015-2016.png?fit=1200%2C796&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/previsions-anomalies-chutes-de-neige-monde-2015-2016.png?fit=1200%2C796&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/previsions-anomalies-chutes-de-neige-monde-2015-2016.png?fit=1200%2C796&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/previsions-anomalies-chutes-de-neige-monde-2015-2016.png?fit=1200%2C796&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":451,"url":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/lhiver-2011-2012\/","url_meta":{"origin":13226,"position":5},"title":"L&rsquo;hiver 2011-2012","author":"Admin","date":"24 juillet 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"L\u2019Hiver 2011-2012 selon la Terre du Futur. Voici un hiver qui va \u00eatre int\u00e9ressant. Les 3 derniers hivers que nous venons de connaitre se situent dans des tendances n\u00e9gatives. Ils \u00e9taient donc en dessous des normes saisonni\u00e8res. Nous \u00e9tions dans le creu de 2 cycles solaires d\u00e9nomm\u00e9s 23 et 24.\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans &quot;Climat&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Climat","link":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/sujets\/climat\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.laterredufutur.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/07\/hiver2011-2012.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13226","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13226"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13226\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13232,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13226\/revisions\/13232"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13228"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13226"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13226"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.laterredufutur.com\/accueil\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13226"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}