3 régions actives et 28 TS observées
WDC silso -> 56 / 26 stations
NOAA -> 58
SWPC -> 64
Flux solaire -> 94
Commentaire ( SIDC en anglais )
COMMENT: NOAA AR 2665 (Catania number 36) and former Catania sunspot group
37 (numbered only at 12-July-2017) produced numerous B and five C-class
flares during the past 24 hours around the midnight [20:08 UT - 00:50 UT]:
C8.4; C2.0; C5.9 ; C3.0; C1.3. Four fast and narrow coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) in southwest and northeast direction have been detected by CACTus
initiated by these C-class flares. These CMEs do not have any geoeffective
component.
The most geoeffective event of the period was a full halo CME, visible in
SoHO/LASCO C2 images from 01:25 UT today (14-July-2017). The CME is
initiated by M2.4 class flare (START: 01:07 UT; PEAK: 02:09 UT) and
subsequent activity of NOAA 2665 NOAA and 2666 ARs that are currently
leaving solar disk center area.
The detailed analysis of the CME speed gives the value 900 km/s (plane-of-
the-sky speed). Further acceleration of the CME is very likely. The arrival
of a shock wave associated to this CME at the Earth can be expected from
the day three (16 July-2017) around noon (estimated with the Drag Based
Model).
The > 10 MeV and > 50 MeV proton fluxes at 1 AU have risen today at 04:10
UT. The > 10 MeV flux has reached the critical threshold of 10 pfu at 07:10
UT, and its current value is 14 pfu. Energetic protons for this Solar
Energetic Particle (SEP) event are accelerated by the shock wave (obvious
from 3hrs delay between flare and proton detection).
We expect more flaring activity up to the M-level tomorrow.
Solar wind parameters were at nominal level. Total magnetic field remained
below 4.1 nT, while Bz component was fluctuating between +/-3.5 nT over the
past 24 hours. Solar wind speed gradually decreased even more from 415 km/s
till 360 km/s.
Geomagnetic conditions were very quiet. Planetary index Kp remained stable
around Kp = 1, while the local K index (Dourbes) was fluctuating between 1
and 3. The geomagnetic field may rise till unsettled levels (Kp =3) later
today (14-Jul-2017), while on the day 3 (16-Jul-2017 from 12:00 UT) minor
storm is expected (till Kp =5) due to the 14-July-2017 Halo CME arrival.
More > 10 MeV protons may arrive by this time at the Earth with the shock
wave.