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Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Phénomènes Climatiques en rapport avec le Soleil. Le cycle 24 devrait être faible, voici une question majeure sur l'influence climatique de notre prochaine decennie.

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 08 aoĂ»t 2022, 03:18

7 région(s) active(s) RA 3068 , 3071,3072 , 3073 ,3074 , 3075 , 3076 et 17 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 90 / 21 observatoires
NOAA -> 87
SWPC -> 96
Flux solaire -> 116
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13068 [S16W69] decayed in the trailing spot section while the two major leading penumbrae merged into one.
Region 13070 [N13W18] was quiet and stable.
Region 13071 [S19E19] was quiet and stable.
Region 13072 [S23W56] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13073 [S34W53] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13074 [S16E55] was quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7748 [N20E68] gained spots and was quiet.
S7750 [N15E03] was quiet and stable.
New region S7752 [N23E23] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.
New region S7753 [N16E83] rotated into view with a mature spot.
New region S7754 [S25E01] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 09 aoĂ»t 2022, 03:39

5 région(s) active(s) RA 3071 , 3073 ,3074 , 3075 , 3076 et 13 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 90 / 30 observatoires
NOAA -> 63
SWPC -> 69
Flux solaire -> 113
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13068 [S16W82] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flare: C1.6 @ 23:06 UT.
Region 13071 [S19E06] was quiet and stable.
Region 13072 [S23W69] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flare: C1.1 @ 22:35 UT
Region 13073 [S34W67] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13074 [S16E42] was quiet and stable.
New region 13075 [N20E55] rotated into view on August 5 and was numbered 2 days later by SWPC.
New region 13076 [N15E70] rotated into view on August 6 with SWPC numbering the region the following day.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7750 [N16W13] was quiet and stable.
S7752 [N24E08] was quiet and stable.
S7754 [S19W18] was quiet and stable.
New region S7755 [N29E58] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7756 [S18E20] emerged with several spots.
New region S7757 [S32W28] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage region.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 10 aoĂ»t 2022, 03:39

5 région(s) active(s) RA 3071 , 3074 ,3075 , 3076 , 3077 et 8 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 64 / 22 observatoires
NOAA -> 58
SWPC -> 64
Flux solaire -> 109
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13071 [S19W08] was quiet and stable.
Region 13073 [S34W80] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13074 [S17E28] was quiet and stable.
Region 13075 [N20E41] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13076 [N15E57] was quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7752 [N24W03] was quiet and stable.
S7755 [N29E44] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7756 [S18E07] developed slowly and quietly.
New region S7759 [S13W63] emerged with a couple of spots.
New region S7760 [N29W41] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7761 [N08W00] emerged with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 11 aoĂ»t 2022, 03:39

5 région(s) active(s) RA 3071 , 3074 ,3076 , 3077 , 3078 et 10 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 67 / 27 observatoires
NOAA -> 60
SWPC -> 66
Flux solaire -> 109
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13071 [S19W21] was quiet and stable.
Region 13074 [S17E15] was quiet and stable.
Region 13075 [N20E28] was quiet and stable.
Region 13076 [N15E44] was quiet and stable.
New region 13077 [S18W08] emerged on August 7 and was numbered 2 days later by SWPC as the region developed slowly.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7750 [N16W36] reemerged with tiny spots.
S7752 [N22W18] was quiet and stable.
S7755 [N29E32] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S7762 [S23E74] rotated into view early in the day.
New region S7763 [N30E18] emerged with tiny spots.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 12 aoĂ»t 2022, 03:51

5 région(s) active(s) RA 3071 , 3074 ,3076 , 3077 , 3078 et 8 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 77 / 22 observatoires
NOAA -> 58
SWPC -> 64
Flux solaire -> 115
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13071 [S18W34] was quiet and stable.
Region 13074 [S17E03] was quiet and stable.
Region 13075 [N20E18] was quiet and stable.
Region 13076 [N15E30] was quiet and stable.
Region 13077 [S18W21] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 13078 [S23E60] rotated into view early on August 9 and was numbered the next day by SWPC.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7763 [N30W02] was quiet and stable.
New region S7764 [N14W39] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7765 [S27W10] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7766 [S08E78] rotated into view with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 13 aoĂ»t 2022, 04:38

7 région(s) active(s) RA 3071 , 3074 ,3076 , 3077 , 3078 , 3029 , 3030 et 27 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 109 / 25 observatoires
NOAA -> 97
SWPC -> 107
Flux solaire -> 120
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13071 [S18W48] was quiet and stable.
Region 13074 [S17W10] was quiet and stable.
Region 13075 [N22E08] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13076 [N15E17] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flare: C1.1 @ 16:24 UT.
Region 13077 [S18W34] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 06:17 and a C1.2 long duration event peaking at 06:58 UT.
Region 13078 [S23E47] was quiet and stable. The region has reversed polarities.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7752 [N24W43] reemerged with tiny spots.
S7755 [N30W07] reemerged with tiny spots.
S7763 [N30W02] was quiet and stable.
S7764 [N15W54] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7765 [S27W24] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7766 [S08E64] was quiet and stable.
New region S7767 [N17E17] emerged with several spots just north of AR 13076. The 2 regions could merge if there is further development.
New region S7768 [N12E70] rotated into view with tiny spots.
New region S7769 [N20W23] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7770 [S10E02] emerged with several spots and has development potential.
New region S7771 [S25E41] emerged with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 14 aoĂ»t 2022, 03:40

8 région(s) active(s) RA 3071 , 3074 ,3076 , 3077 , 3078 , 3029 , 3030 , 3031 et 36 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 126 / 19 observatoires
NOAA -> 116
SWPC -> 128
Flux solaire -> 124
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13071 [S18W61] was quiet and stable.
Region 13074 [S17W23] was mostly quiet and gained a spot in the far eastern part of the trailing spot section.
Region 13075 [N23W08] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13076 [N15E04] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 04:58, C1.1 @ 05:10 UT
Region 13077 [S18W46] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13078 [S23E34] gained a few spots and was mostly quiet. The region has reversed polarities.
New region 13079 [S11W11] emerged on August 11 and was numbered the next day by SWPC. The region is still developing and could soon become capable of producing a minor M class flare. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 16:32, C1.2 @ 23:21, C1.3 @ 23:34 UT
New region 13080 [N19W38] emerged on August 11 with SWPC numbering the region the following day. Slow decay was observed after noon.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7766 [S08E50] was quiet and stable.
S7767 [N18E03] developed further. The region has reversed polarities and could become capable of producing M class flares is it develops further. The spot group is very close to AR 13076 and the 2 regions could merge if there is development in the area between the groups.
S7768 [N12E59] developed significantly late in the day as new flux emerged and could produce C flares.
New region S7772 [S18W39] emerged near noon with a couple of spots, then decayed slowly late in the day.
New region S7773 [N23E14] emerged with tiny spots.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 15 aoĂ»t 2022, 03:48

6 région(s) active(s) RA 3071 , 3074 ,3076 , 3078 , 3079 , 3081 et 43 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 123 / 19 observatoires
NOAA -> 103
SWPC -> 113
Flux solaire -> 126
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13071 [S17W75] was quiet and stable.
Region 13074 [S17W37] was quiet and decayed slightly.
Region 13075 [N23W12] developed slightly as new tiny trailing spots emerged.
Region 13076 [N15W09] was quiet and in slow decay.
Region 13077 [S17W58] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13078 [S23E21] was quiet and mostly stable. The region has reversed polarities. C1 flare: C1.2 @ 22:55 UT
Region 13079 [S11W23] developed before noon and produced many C flares. Slow decay was observed late in the day. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 00:43, C1.1 @ 01:28, C1.5 @ 01:37, C1.2 @ 02:16, C1.2 @ 04:26, C1.3 @ 05:45, C1.4 @ 10:18, C1.4 @ 13:38, C1.2 @ 15:02, C1.0 @ 20:25 UT
Region 13080 [N19W51] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 13081 [N11E45] emerged on August 11 and was numbered by SWPC 2 days later. The region continued to develop but was mostly quiet. C flares are possible. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 01:54 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7766 [S10E37] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7767 [N17W11] decayed and was quiet. The region has reversed polarities.
S7771 [S27E15] reemerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7775 [N36E17] emerged with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 16 aoĂ»t 2022, 03:36

5 région(s) active(s) RA 3074 ,3076 , 3078 , 3079 , 3081 et 32 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 118 / 18 observatoires
NOAA -> 82
SWPC -> 90
Flux solaire -> 131
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html
Minor update added at 18:10 UT: AR 13078 has developed quickly today and become a very compact region with multiple magnetic delta structures. The region has produced 2 M flares and may soon become capable of producing X class flares.
Image

Image

Region 13074 [S17W50] was quiet and stable.
Region 13075 [N23W30] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13076 [N15W22] decayed slowly with the main penumbra fragmenting into smaller penumbrae.
Region 13078 [S24E08] developed significantly as new flux emerged. Polarities are intermixed and there are many spots in a relatively small area. Minor class flaring will become likely if the region continues to develop. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 03:40, C1.0 @ 06:29, C1.1 @ 18:10, C1.0 @ 19:18 UT
Region 13079 [S11W37] was less active than on the previous day. There is still polarity intermixing in the trailing spot section. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 08:31, C1.3 @ 21:54 UT
Region 13080 [N19W65] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13081 [N11E31] produced a few small C flares and has, despite the presence of many spots, a fairly simple magnetic layout. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 04:47, C1.2 @ 14:57, C1.0 @ 15:55 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7766 [S10E22] was quiet and stable.
S7767 [N17W24] decayed further. The region was the main source of a long duration C2 event peaking at 12:35 UT. A partial halo CME was associated with this event.
S7771 [S27E01] was quiet and stable.
New region S7776 [N20W22] emerged before noon with several spots to the north of ARs 13076 and S7767. The development of this region may have triggered the C2 flare in AR 7767.
New region S7778 [S09E71] rotated into view with a tiny spot.
New region S7779 [N11E13] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7780 [N14W57] emerged with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 17 aoĂ»t 2022, 03:52

8 région(s) active(s) RA 3074 ,3075 ,3076 , 3078 , 3079 , 3081 , 3082 , 3083 et 39 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 136 / 20 observatoires
NOAA -> 119
SWPC -> 131
Flux solaire -> 129
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13074 [S17W63] was quiet and stable.
Region 13075 [N22W42] was quiet and stable.
Region 13076 [N15W35] decayed significantly losing all mature penumbra.
Region 13078 [S24W06] developed quickly becoming a very compact and complex region. Major flares are possible as long as the multiple magnetic delta structures remain. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 07:15, C1.9 @ 08:11, C1.6 @ 09:25, C1.7 @ 13:59, C1.1 @ 22:50 UT. The region was the source of a major M5.0 flare at 07:58 UT on August 16.
Region 13079 [S10W51] gained spots and could produce minor M class flares. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 19:21, C1.7 @ 23:17 UT
Region 13081 [N11E17] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.4 @ 09:08 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7766 [S11E08] developed slightly and was quiet.
S7767 [N17W34] was quiet and stable.
S7776 [N20W38] decayed quickly and was quiet.
S7778 [S10E59] developed slowly and quietly.
New region S7781 [N23E19] emerged before noon with tiny spots.
New region S7782 [N17W64] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7783 [S24W17] emerged to the west of AR 13078 with a few spots.
New region S7784 [N27E62] emerged with a few spots late in the day.
New region S7785 [N16E38] emerged with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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