Suite a une mise a jour critique, les forums sont en lecture seule. Les discussions continuent sur les reseaux sociaux. Vous etes invites et vous pouvez nous rejoindre sur

Facebook : Debats sur les groupes suivants : Sciences, Suivi Solaire, et MeteoNet

Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Phénomènes Climatiques en rapport avec le Soleil. Le cycle 24 devrait être faible, voici une question majeure sur l'influence climatique de notre prochaine decennie.

Modérateurs :cartesien66, williams

Avatar du membre
cartesien66
Administrateur
Administrateur
Messages :16599
Enregistré le :26 nov. 2011, 11:53
Localisation :Contreforts du Canigou
Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 26 sept. 2022, 03:50

5 région(s) active(s) RA 3105 , 3107 , 3108 , 3109 , 3110 et 46 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 136 / 13 observatoires
NOAA -> 96
SWPC -> 106
Flux solaire -> 135
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13102 [S27W80] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 15:42 UT
Region 13105 [S17E09] decayed slowly and quietly losing some penumbral area.
Region 13106 [S12W03] was quiet and stable.
Region 13107 [S23E25] has many spots and significant polarity intermixing. M class flares are possible.
Region 13108 [S12W24] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13109 [N09W39] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 07:29 UT
Region 13110 [N17E58] developed slowly and has 2 small magnetic delta structures. M flares are possible. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 05:42, C1.8 @ 05:53, C1.6 @ 09:48, C1.9 @ 11:43 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7887 [N19E09] developed slowly and quietly.
New region S7888 [N03W21] emerged with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

Image

Avatar du membre
cartesien66
Administrateur
Administrateur
Messages :16599
Enregistré le :26 nov. 2011, 11:53
Localisation :Contreforts du Canigou

Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 27 sept. 2022, 03:30

5 région(s) active(s) RA 3105 , 3107 , 3108 , 3109 , 3110 et 70 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 122 / 11 observatoires
NOAA -> 120
SWPC -> 132
Flux solaire -> 135
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13105 [S17W02] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13106 [S11W18] was quiet and stable.
Region 13107 [S23E12] decayed losing spots and area. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 14:04 UT
Region 13108 [S12W38] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13109 [N09W56] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 09:29 UT
Region 13110 [N17E45] consolidated and has a mature leader spot. There is a small magnetic delta in the trailing spot section and an M flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.4 @ 19:02, C1.9 @ 19:34, C1.1 @ 20:49 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7887 [N20W05] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S7889 [N34W39] emerged before noon with 2 spots, then decayed slowly.
New region S7890 [S18W16] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7891 [S12E08] emerged with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

Image

Avatar du membre
cartesien66
Administrateur
Administrateur
Messages :16599
Enregistré le :26 nov. 2011, 11:53
Localisation :Contreforts du Canigou

Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 28 sept. 2022, 03:31

5 région(s) active(s) RA 3105 , 3107 , 3108 , 3110 , 3111 et 60 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 106 / 13 observatoires
NOAA -> 110
SWPC -> 122
Flux solaire -> 135
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13105 [S17W15] decayed slowly and quietly. New flux and a few spots emerged to the south of the largest trailing penumbra and in the central parts of the region.
Region 13107 [S24W01] decayed losing spots and area early in the day. After noon new flux emerged in the central parts with many new spots developing. An M class flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.4 @ 16:34, C1.8 @ 18:07, C1.4 @ 23:14 UT
Region 13108 [S13W51] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13109 [N09W69] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13110 [N16E30] decayed in the trailing and intermediate spot sections. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 14:46 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7887 [N20W17] was quiet and stable.
New region S7892 [N28E82] rotated into view with a single mature spot
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

Image

Avatar du membre
cartesien66
Administrateur
Administrateur
Messages :16599
Enregistré le :26 nov. 2011, 11:53
Localisation :Contreforts du Canigou

Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 29 sept. 2022, 03:11

4 région(s) active(s) RA 3105 , 3107 , 3110 , 3111 et 32 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 86 / 16 observatoires
NOAA -> 72
SWPC -> 79
Flux solaire -> 135
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image
N 84.6 S 106.7

Region 13105 [S17W30] produced a few flares and has polarity intermixing. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 14:48, C1.3 @ 14:59 UT
Region 13107 [S24W13] developed a magnetic delta in a central penumbra. M class flaring is possible.
Region 13108 [S13W66] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13110 [N16E17] was quiet and stable.
New region 13111 [N28E69] rotated into view on September 26 and was numbered by SWPC the next day.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

Image

Avatar du membre
cartesien66
Administrateur
Administrateur
Messages :16599
Enregistré le :26 nov. 2011, 11:53
Localisation :Contreforts du Canigou

Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 30 sept. 2022, 03:45

4 région(s) active(s) RA 3105 , 3107 , 3110 , 3111 et 16 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 72 / 20 observatoires
NOAA -> 56
SWPC -> 62
Flux solaire -> 137
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13105 [S17W43] gained a magnetic delta in the leading spot section. C flares are likely and there is a chance of a minor M class flare. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 11:15 UT
Region 13107 [S24W28] decayed in the trailing spot section. M class flaring is possible. C1 flares: C1.7 @ 00:20, C1.9 @ 02:57, C1.7 @ 07:53, C1.3 @ 08:46 (simultaneous flare in AR 13105), C1.3 @ 11:32, C1.6 @ 23:45 UT
Region 13110 [N16E03] gained spots just ahead of the largest penumbra as new flux emerged. C flares are possible.
Region 13111 [N28E57] was quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
New region S7893 [S14E18] emerged with tiny spots.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

Image

Avatar du membre
cartesien66
Administrateur
Administrateur
Messages :16599
Enregistré le :26 nov. 2011, 11:53
Localisation :Contreforts du Canigou

Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 01 oct. 2022, 03:41

6 région(s) active(s) RA 3105 , 3107 , 3110 , 3111, 3112 , 3113 et 14 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 73 / 15 observatoires
NOAA -> 74
SWPC -> 81
Flux solaire -> 139
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13105 [S18W55] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13107 [S24W42] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13110 [N16W10] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13111 [N28E44] was quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7893 [S14E04] was quiet and stable.
New region S7895 [N15W13] was split off from AR 13110.
New region S7896 [N16E00] emerged with a few spots near the trailing spots of AR 13110.
New region S7897 [N33E26] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

Image

Avatar du membre
cartesien66
Administrateur
Administrateur
Messages :16599
Enregistré le :26 nov. 2011, 11:53
Localisation :Contreforts du Canigou

Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 02 oct. 2022, 03:52

6 région(s) active(s) RA 3107 , 3110 , 3111, 3112 , 3113 , 3114 et 40 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 95 / 10 observatoires
NOAA -> 100
SWPC -> 110
Flux solaire -> 148
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13105 [S18W68] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13107 [S24W56] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13110 [N16W23] was quiet and stable.
Region 13111 [N27E31] gained a few spots and produced a few flares during the latter half of the day.
New region 13112 [N19E77] rotated into view with a mature spot.
New region 13113 [N16W14] emerged on September 29 and developed quickly on September when the region was numbered by SWPC. The leading spot of the group is partly inside what was the trailing spot section of AR 13110. Many small spots developed in that section due to the development of AR 13113, and because of the proximity those spots are counted as part of AR 13113.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7893 [S15W09] developed slowly early in the day, then decayed.
S7897 [N31E10] was quiet and stable.
New region S7898 [S33E38] emerged with several spots.
New region S7900 [S26W11] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7901 [N22E82] rotated into view with several spots in a magnetically complex layout. Further M class flaring is likely.
New region S7902 [N28E82] rotated into view with a tiny spot.
New region S7903 [S12E35] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

Image

Avatar du membre
cartesien66
Administrateur
Administrateur
Messages :16599
Enregistré le :26 nov. 2011, 11:53
Localisation :Contreforts du Canigou

Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 02 oct. 2022, 04:03

Moyenne septembre 2022
https://www.solen.info/solar/
Flux solaire 135.1
SSN WDC Silso 96.3
ISN smoothed (105.2 projected, +5.0)-
index Ap 12.2
Eruptions solaires C 479 , M 13 , X 0
Vent solaire Max 748 km/s Mini 279 km/s

Image
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

Image

Avatar du membre
cartesien66
Administrateur
Administrateur
Messages :16599
Enregistré le :26 nov. 2011, 11:53
Localisation :Contreforts du Canigou

Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 03 oct. 2022, 03:27

6 région(s) active(s) RA 3107 , 3110 , 3111, 3112 , 3113 , 3114 et 42 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 129 / 12 observatoires
NOAA -> 102
SWPC -> 110
Flux solaire -> 154
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13107 [S24W66] decayed slowly losing all mature penumbra.
Region 13110 [N17W37] developed polarity intermixing when new flux emerged to the northeast of the largest spot with negative polarity flux inside a large area of positive polarity. This cused the region to become unstable and a major flare occurred at 20:10 UT. The region was the source of an M8.7 flare at 02:21 UT on October 2.
Region 13111 [N27E19] gained a few spots and was mostly quiet.
Region 13112 [N19E64] was quiet and stable. Note that SWPC include these spots in AR S7901. If that interpretation was correct the region would extend more than 20 degrees longitudinally.
Region 13113 [N16W27] developed slowly and was mostly quiet.
New region 13114 [S33E24] emerged early on September 30 and was numbered by SWPC the next day. The region appeared to be in slow decay late in the day.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7897 [N31E00] was quiet and stable.
S7901 [N22E75] has magnetically a very complex layout with multiple magnetic delta structures. Although the region was significantly less active on October 1 than on the previous day, a major flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 10:29, C1.9 @ 14:26 UT
S7902 [N28E70] was quiet and stable.
New region S7904 [S19E31] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7905 [N30E79] rotated into view with tiny spots.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

Image

Avatar du membre
cartesien66
Administrateur
Administrateur
Messages :16599
Enregistré le :26 nov. 2011, 11:53
Localisation :Contreforts du Canigou

Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 04 oct. 2022, 03:33

7 région(s) active(s) RA 3110 , 3111, 3112 , 3113 , 3115 , 3116 , 3117 et 77 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 162 / 23 observatoires
NOAA -> 147
SWPC -> 162
Flux solaire -> 155
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13110 [N18W51] developed further with a major part of the negative polarity area in the north surrounded by positive polarity. The inversion line is fairly long and two major flares occurred along that line. Further major flares are likely.
Region 13111 [N27E06] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13112 [N19E50] was quiet and stable. Note that SWPC include the spots from AR S7901 in this region. If that interpretation was correct the region would extend 24 degrees longitudinally.
Region 13113 [N16W41] developed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13114 [S33E15] decayed slowly and quietly.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7901 [N22E61] gained area and spots and is magnetically very complex with multiple magnetic delta structures. A major flare is possible.
S7902 [N28E57] was quiet and stable.
S7904 [S18E16] gained spots and area and was quiet.
S7905 [N30E68] gained spots and was quiet.
New region S7906 [S10E32] emerged with several spots.
New region S7907 [S25W37] emerged with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

Image

RĂ©pondre

Retourner vers « Effets de l'activité solaire »