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Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Phénomènes Climatiques en rapport avec le Soleil. Le cycle 24 devrait être faible, voici une question majeure sur l'influence climatique de notre prochaine decennie.

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 10 juil. 2022, 03:44

5 région(s) active(s) RA 3046 , 3051 , 3052 , 3053 , 3055 et 39 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 96 / 17 observatoires
NOAA -> 89
SWPC -> 98
Flux solaire -> 136
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13046 [N17W29] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13049 [S15W08] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13051 [N28W22] developed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 04:01, C1.3 @ 14:21 UT
Region 13052 [N15E13] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flare: C1.5 @ 11:25 UT
Region 13053 [N14E33] gained spots and produced a long duration M class event associated with a full halo CME. Further M class flaring is possible as there is still polarity intermixing. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 03:38, C1.6 @ 19:08 UT
Region 13054 [N20W54] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13055 [S18E48] developed further gaining area and spots. There is a chance for an M class flare. C1 flares: C1.4 @ 01:10, C1.2 @ 13:48, C1.0 @ 15:38 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7686 [S27W15] reemerged with tiny spots.
S7690 [S20E22] was quiet and stable.
New region S7691 [N19E58] emerged with tiny spots in an old plage area.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 11 juil. 2022, 03:44

6 région(s) active(s) RA 3046 , 3051 , 3052 , 3053 , 3055 , 3056 et 53 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 109 / 20 observatoires
NOAA -> 113
SWPC -> 124
Flux solaire -> 153
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13046 [N17W43] decayed slowly and quietly losing mature penumbra.
Region 13049 [S12W18] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13051 [N28W35] developed early in the day, then decayed slowly after noon. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 06:50, C1.7 @ 11:37, C1.5 @ 16:17 UT
Region 13052 [N15W01] decayed slowly quietly.
Region 13053 [N14E19] decayed slowly losing area and spots. M class flaring is still possible. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 05:39, C1.4 @ 08:44 UT
Region 13055 [S18E33] developed further gaining area and spots. M class flaring is possible. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 01:00, C1.4 @ 09:26, C1.5 @ 11:06, C1.1 @ 12:04 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7686 [S22W38] was quiet and stable.
S7690 [S21E09] was quiet and stable.
S7691 [N18E48] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S7692 [N45E10] emerged before noon at a high latitude. At noon the largest spot was even visible in 1K images. Slow decay was observed after noon.
New region S7693 [S17E80] rotated into view with a small spot.
New region S7694 [S09W59] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7695 [N20E37] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 12 juil. 2022, 04:09

7 région(s) active(s) RA 3046 , 3051 , 3052 , 3053 , 3055 , 3056 , 3057 et 64 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 131 / 21 observatoires
NOAA -> 134
SWPC -> 148
Flux solaire -> 163
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13046 [N17W57] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13051 [N28W48] decayed slowly producing a few C flares. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 04:39, C1.6 @ 04:54 UT
Region 13052 [N15W15] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13053 [N14E05] decayed slowly losing area. M class flaring is still possible. C1 flares: C1.4 @ 01:24 UT
Region 13055 [S17E19] developed further with a big gain in area and has become capable of producing a major flare. Weak polarity intermixing is present and there may be a weak magnetic delta in a trailing penumbra. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 03:23, C1.0 @ 07:06, C1.1 @ 07:36 UT
New region 13056 [S17E67] rotated into view on July 9 and developed on July 10 when the region was numbered by SWPC. There is significant polarity intermixing and the largest penumbra has a magnetic delta. Further M class flaring is likely. C1 flares: C1.7 @ 19:12, C1.8 @ 21:13 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7690 [S17W03] was quiet and stable.
S7694 [S10W72] developed slowly and quietly.
S7695 [N20E21] was quiet and stable.
New region S7696 [N16E82] began to rotate into view before noon and has several large spots. M class flaring is possible. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 02:17 UT
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 13 juil. 2022, 04:19

5 région(s) active(s) RA,3052 , 3053 , 3055 , 3056 , 3057 et 67 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 116 / 20 observatoires
NOAA -> 117
SWPC -> 129
Flux solaire -> 165
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13046 [N17W70] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13051 [N28W61] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13052 [N15W28] was quiet and stable.
Region 13053 [N14W08] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 14:27, C1.4 @ 21:09, C1.5 @ 21:42, C1.3 @ 22:06, C1.3 @ 23:07 UT.
Region 13055 [S17E07] gained area, however, the negative and positive polarity areas are mostly well separated. There are a few patches with polarity intermixing and a major flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 04:35, C1.7 @ 08:34, C1.4 @ 20:34 UT
Region 13056 [S17E51] decayed significantly after the M1.1 flare and was mostly quiet for the remainder of the day. The trailing polarity spots retained only a small amount of rudimentary penumbra. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 03:01, C1.2 @ 03:19, C1.7 @ 04:16, C1.5 @ 10:26, C1.9 @ 15:12, C1.8 @ 16:08 UT
New region 13057 [N17E70] rotated partly into view on July 10 and was numbered the next day by SWPC. The trailing spots have very small umbrae and the region was mostly quiet.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7690 [S21W15] was quiet and stable.
S7695 [N22E08] was quiet and stable.
New region S7697 [S27E10] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.
New region S7698 [S15E23] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7699 [N21E24] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 14 juil. 2022, 03:57

4 région(s) active(s) RA 3053 , 3055 , 3056 , 3057 et 61 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 123 / 23 observatoires
NOAA -> 101
SWPC -> 111
Flux solaire -> 165
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13052 [N15W41] was quiet and stable.
Region 13053 [N15W22] decayed further in the leading and trailing spot sections, however, some development was observed in the northernmost spots. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 00:33, C1.6 @ 01:58, C1.5 @ 02:38, C1.6 @ 09:17 UT
Region 13055 [S17W09] displayed signs of decay, particularly in the trailing spot section. A major flare is still possible. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 22:39 UT
Region 13056 [S17E38] decayed further in the trailing spot section. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 04:30 UT
Region 13057 [N17E70] produced a few C flares and may be capable of minor M class flaring. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 15:59, C1.8 @ 18:55 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7690 [S22W19] was quiet and stable.
S7695 [N21W02] was quiet and stable.
S7697 [S30E02] was quiet and stable.
S7699 [N22E16] was quiet and stable
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 15 juil. 2022, 03:54

5 région(s) active(s) RA 3053 , 3055 , 3056 , 3057 , 3058 et 83 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 132 / 15 observatoires
NOAA -> 133
SWPC -> 147
Flux solaire -> 169
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13052 [N15W56] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13053 [N15W35] decayed further in the leading and trailing spot sections, while the northernmost spots developed and gained a magnetic delta. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 00:31, C1.4 @ 01:25, C1.7 @ 01:46, C1.4 @ 04:37, C1.9 @ 07:22, C1.5 @ 11:22 UT
Region 13055 [S17W21] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. A major flare is still possible. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 06:06 UT
Region 13056 [S17E26] developed gaining numerous small spots and has polarity intermixing. A minor M class flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.4 @ 09:59, C1.3 @ 12:32, C1.7 @ 15:33, C1.9 @ 23:39 UT
Region 13057 [N17E43] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.4 @ 21:45 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7690 [S16W31] gained spots in the trailing polarity area.
S7695 [N20W18] was quiet and stable.
S7699 [N22E02] was quiet and stable.
New region S7700 [N15E81] rotated into view with small spots.
New region S7701 [N21E22] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 16 juil. 2022, 05:07

6 région(s) active(s) RA 3053 , 3055 , 3056 , 3057 , 3058 , 3059 et 81 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 135 / 21 observatoires
NOAA -> 141
SWPC -> 155
Flux solaire -> 171
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13052 [N14W68] was quiet and stable.
Region 13053 [N16W48] developed early in the day, then decayed slowly after noon.
Region 13055 [S17W35] decayed slowly and was quiet. A major flare is still possible.
Region 13056 [S18E13] developed in the trailing spot section and has polarity intermixing. A minor M class flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 03:22 UT
Region 13057 [N16E29] was quiet and stable.
New region 13058 [N15E69] rotated into view on July 13 and was numbered the next day by SWPC. Further M class flaring is possible.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7695 [N22W31] was quiet and stable.
S7699 [N20W12] was quiet and stable.
New region S7702 [S07E83] rotated into view with a small spot.
New region S7703 [N12E77] rotated into view with a mature spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 17 juil. 2022, 03:22

7 région(s) active(s) RA 3053 , 3055 , 3056 , 3057 , 3058 , 3059 , 3060 et 83 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 154 / 21 observatoires
NOAA -> 153
SWPC -> 168
Flux solaire -> 176
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13052 [N15W82] was quiet and stable.
Region 13053 [N15W62] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13055 [S17W49] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.7 @ 13:23 UT.
Region 13056 [S18W01] developed further gaining spots and area. An M class flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 00:42, C1.5 @ 01:26. C1.9 @ 03:56, C1.9 @ 15:22 UT
Region 13057 [N16E17] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13058 [N14E53] developed and has significant polarity intermixing. An M class flare is possible. c1 flares: C1.9 @ 05:47 UT
New region 13059 [S08E70] rotated into view on July 14 and was numbered the next day as the region developed slowly. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 10:34 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7695 [N17W42] was quiet and stable.
S7697 [S29W35] reemerged with a single spot.
S7701 [N20W07] reemerged with tiny spots.
S7703 [N12E62] was quiet and stable. SWPC appears to be grouping this with AR 13058.
New region S7704 [N33E11] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7705 [N18E60] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7706 [S06E31] emerged with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 18 juil. 2022, 03:54

8 région(s) active(s) RA 3053 , 3055 , 3056 , 3057 , 3058 , 3059 , 3060 , 3061 et 86 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 147 / 19 observatoires
NOAA -> 166
SWPC -> 183
Flux solaire -> 166
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13053 [N14W76] decayed significantly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 13:11 UT
Region 13055 [S16W62] decayed slowly producing 1 M class flare. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 12:03 UT
Region 13056 [S17W13] decayed in the eastern spot section while development was observed in the northern spot section. Occasional C class flaring is likely.
Region 13057 [N16E03] was the source of a small M class flare. Further M class flares are possible.
Region 13058 [N14E53] has a magnetic delta at the center of the region. An M class flare is possible.
Region 13059 [S08E55] developed slowly and quietly.
New region 13060 [N12E49] rotated into view on July 14 and was numbered by SWPC 2 days later.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7699 [N22W41] reemerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7707 [S16E29] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7708 [N23W25] emerged before noon and developed slowly all day.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 19 juil. 2022, 03:40

7 région(s) active(s) RA 3055 , 3056 , 3057 , 3058 , 3059 , 3060 , 3061 et 55 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 128 / 28 observatoires
NOAA -> 125
SWPC -> 138
Flux solaire -> 152
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13053 [N18W85] rotated partly out of view while decaying quickly.
Region 13055 [S16W75] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 13:44 UT
Region 13056 [S16W28] decayed further losing spots in the eastern spot section. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 10:48, C1.6 @ 14:56, C1.6 @ 16:32 UT
Region 13057 [N16W10] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 12:02 UT
Region 13058 [N14E26] decayed slowly and still has a magnetic delta at the center of the region. An M class flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 09:02, C1.9 @ 09:51 UT
Region 13059 [S08E41] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 13060 [N11E35] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 13061 [N23W38] emerged on July 16 and was numbered the next day by SWPC as the region developed slowly.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7701 [N20W29] reemerged with tiny spots.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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