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Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Phénomènes Climatiques en rapport avec le Soleil. Le cycle 24 devrait être faible, voici une question majeure sur l'influence climatique de notre prochaine decennie.

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 28 aoĂ»t 2022, 04:21

5 région(s) active(s) RA 3085 , 3086 , 3087 , 3088 , 3089 et 34 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 99 / 22 observatoires
NOAA -> 84
SWPC -> 92
Flux solaire -> 119
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

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Region 13085 [N30W49] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13086 [S23E01] developed as new flux emerged.
Region 13087 [S14E27] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13088 [S28W59] developed further and has a few weak magnetic delta structures. A major proton flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 04:53, C1.7 @ 05:52 UT. The region was the source of a long duration M4.8 event peaking at 02:40 UT. A partial halo CME was observed after this event. As was an increase in the above 10 Mev proton flux.
Region 13089 [S22E43] developed further and still has a magnetic delta near its center. Significant polarity intermixing is still present and major flaring is possible. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 00:39, C1.9 @ 01:57, C1.9 @ 10:22 UT
Region 13090 [N17E53] decayed slowly and quietly.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7803 [N20E01] was quiet and stable.
New region S7815 [S22E08] emerged with tiny spots to the east of AR 13086.
New region S7816 [S13E76] rotated into view with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 29 aoĂ»t 2022, 03:53

5 région(s) active(s) RA 3085 , 3086 , 3087 , 3088 , 3089 et 29 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 90 / 19 observatoires
NOAA -> 79
SWPC -> 87
Flux solaire -> 252 (?)
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13085 [N30W62] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13086 [S23W11] decayed slowly losing mature penumbra.
Region 13087 [S14E13] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13088 [S28W72] is still a complex group with several weak magnetic delta structures. A major proton flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.7 @ 20:14, C1.9 @ 23:18, C1.7 @ 23:42, C1.8 @ 23:51 UT
Region 13089 [S23E30] gained area and lost some magnetic complexity. There is minor polarity intermixing, however, the region was mostly quiet on August 27, in sharp contrast to the previous day.
Region 13090 [N17E37] developed slowly and quietly.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7811 [N14W12] reemerged with tiny spots.
New region S7817 [S20W01] emerged early in the day with several spots, then decayed slowly after noon.
New region S7818 [N11E05] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7819 [N09E03] emerged with tiny spots close to AR S7818.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 30 aoĂ»t 2022, 03:33

5 région(s) active(s) RA 3085 , 3086 , 3087 , 3088 , 3089 et 37 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 75 / 21 observatoires
NOAA -> 87
SWPC -> 96
Flux solaire -> 131
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13085 [N30W75] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13086 [S23W24] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13087 [S14W00] was quiet and stable.
Region 13088 [S28W84] rotated partly out of view producing many C and M flares. A major proton flare is possible for the next day or so while the region rotates over the limb.
Region 13089 [S22E18] gained area and many spots. A magnetic delta structure formed in the trailing spot section and a major flare is possible.
Region 13090 [N17E27] decayed slowly and quietly.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7811 [N13W28] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7817 [S20W01] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S7820 [S03W21] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7821 [N15E38] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7822 [N24E73] rotated into view with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 31 aoĂ»t 2022, 03:39

5 région(s) active(s) RA 3086 , 3089 et 30 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 52 / 21 observatoires
NOAA -> 50
SWPC -> 55
Flux solaire -> 126
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

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N 71.1 S 94.6

Region 13085 [N30W87] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13086 [S23W39] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13087 [S15W12] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13089 [S22E05] was mostly inactive despite a magnetic delta in the trailing spot section. A major flare is possible.
Region 13090 [N17E09] was quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7817 [S21W30] was quiet and stable.
S7822 [N25E60] was quiet and stable.
New region S7823 [N07E56] was observed with a tiny spot in an old plage area.
New region S7824 [S12E36] emerged with tiny spots.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 01 sept. 2022, 04:20

2 région(s) active(s) RA 3089 , 3090 et 22 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 47 / 22 observatoires
NOAA -> 42
SWPC -> 46
Flux solaire -> 113
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13086 [S23W52] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13087 [S16W23] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13089 [S22W08] gained area and was mostly quiet despite the magnetic delta in the trailing spot section. A major flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 14:13 UT
Region 13090 [N18W02] was quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7817 [S21W43] was quiet and stable.
S7821 [N14E11] reemerged with tiny spots.
New region S7825 [S26E50] was observed with a tiny spot in an old plage area.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 02 sept. 2022, 04:41

4 région(s) active(s) RA 3086 , 3089 , 3091 , 3092 et 27 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 52 / 19 observatoires
NOAA -> 67
SWPC -> 74
Flux solaire -> 116
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13087 [S19W39] was quiet and stable.
Region 13089 [S22W21] decayed slightly and produced several C flares. An M class flare is still possible. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 09:49, C1.6 @ 11:24, C1.8 @ 12:29, C1.1 @ 16:47, C1.3 @ 18:40 UT
Region 13090 [N18W18] was quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7821 [N13W02] developed slowly and quietly.
S7822 [N19E29] reemerged with tiny spots.
S7825 [S17E21] was quiet.
New region S7826 [S10E82] rotated partly into view with a few spots.
New region S7827 [N26E56] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7828 [S28E68] rotated into view with tiny spots
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 02 sept. 2022, 04:51

Moyenne aout 2022
2022.08-
Flux solaire 114.2-
SSN WDC Silso 75.4-
ISN smoothed (100.0 projected, +6.6)-
index Ap 11.0
Eruptions solaires C 292 , M 37 , X 0
Vent solaire Max 698 km/s Mini 297 km/s

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It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 03 sept. 2022, 04:07

4 région(s) active(s) RA 3089 , 3092 , 3093 , 3094 et 31 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 60 / 22 observatoires
NOAA -> 71
SWPC -> 78
Flux solaire -> 130
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13089 [S22W34] developed again after noon as new negative polarity flux emerged to the southwest of the largest positive polarity spot. A major flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 06:40, C1.5 @ 22:13 UT
New region 13092 [S10E68] rotated into view on August 31 and was numbered by SWPC the next day. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 01:20, C1.6 @ 12:20, C1.2 @ 19:14, C1.0 @ 19:59 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7822 [N20E18] was quiet and stable.
S7828 [S28E54] gained spots and was quiet.
New region S7829 [S20W69] emerged to the northeast of AR 13086 with a few spots. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 09:53, C1.6 @ 12:20 UT
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 04 sept. 2022, 03:33

4 région(s) active(s) RA 3089 , 3092 , 3093 , 3094 et 28 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 65 / 19 observatoires
NOAA -> 68
SWPC -> 75
Flux solaire -> 123
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13089 [S22W47] produced a number of small C flares. There is potential for an M class flare. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 02:24, C1.8 @ 04:24, C1.5 @ 18:18, C1.6 @ 18:46, C1.8 @ 23:24 UT
Region 13092 [S10E54] was quiet and stable.
New region 13093 [S27E41] rotated into view on August 31 and was numbered by SWPC 2 days later.
New region 13094 [N21E79] rotated into view with a mature spot. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 03:15, C1.6 @ 10:06, C1.2 @ 12:26 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7822 [N21E05] was quiet and stable.
New region S7831 [N24E29] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.
New region S7832 [S30E35] emerged with a tiny spot
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 05 sept. 2022, 04:22

4 région(s) active(s) RA 3089 , 3092 , 3093 , 3094 et 22 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 69 / 19 observatoires
NOAA -> 62
SWPC -> 68
Flux solaire -> 128
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13089 [S22W59] gained area and has a very large main penumbral area. Multiple magnetic delta structures are present, particularly in the western parts of the region. A major flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 00:30, C1.1 @ 02:32, C1.7 @ 02:14, C1.2 @ 06:53, C1.2 @ 11:22, C1.1 @ 11:31, C1.3 @ 12:03, C1.3 @ 13:40, C1.0 @ 15:18, C1.0 @ 16:34, C1.0 @ 19:44, C1.2 @ 21:14 UT
Region 13092 [S10E40] gained tiny spots and was quiet. C1 flare: C1.0 @ 03:08 UT
Region 13093 [S27E30] gained spots and was quiet.
Region 13094 [N21E67] was quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7822 [N20W08] was quiet and stable.
New region S7833 [N10E12] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7834 [S21E18] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.
New region S7835 [S16W41] emerged with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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