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Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Phénomènes Climatiques en rapport avec le Soleil. Le cycle 24 devrait être faible, voici une question majeure sur l'influence climatique de notre prochaine decennie.

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 18 aoĂ»t 2022, 04:05

5 région(s) active(s) RA 3078 , 3079 , 3081 , 3082 , 3083 et 33 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 129 / 08 observatoires
NOAA -> 83
SWPC -> 91
Flux solaire -> 123
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13074 [S17W77] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13076 [N15W48] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13078 [S23W18] developed slowly and is still a complex region with several magnetic delta structures. Another major flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 04:06, C1.4 @ 06:57, C1.6 @ 07:40, C1.5 @ 08:44, C1.4 @ 08:53, C1.4 @ 09:14, C1.3 @ 09:32, C1.9 @ 15:07, C1.7 @ 20:48, C1.2 @ 22:52 UT
Region 13079 [S10W65] decayed significantly losing all penumbra on the leader spots and nearly all mature penumbra on the trailing spots. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 02:42, C1.4 @ 03:40 UT
Region 13081 [N11E03] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 13082 [N27E49] emerged on August 15 and continued to develop on August 16 when it was numbered by SWPC.
New region 13083 [S24W29] emerged on August 15 and received its NOAA number the following day as slow development continued.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7766 [S11W03] was quiet and stable.
S7776 [N20W52] decayed further and was quiet.
S7778 [S09E44] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7782 [N18W78] developed further and was quiet. Note that SWPC / USAF for some reason chose to relocate AR 13075 to this new group.
New region S7786 [S19E73] rotated into view with mature spots.
New region S7787 [N35E10] emerged with several spots.
New region S7788 [S16E73] emerged to the north of AR S7786.
New region S7789 [N13W10] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 19 aoĂ»t 2022, 03:44

5 région(s) active(s) RA 3078 , 3081 , 3082 , 3083 , 3084 et 33 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 98 / 16 observatoires
NOAA -> 83
SWPC -> 91
Flux solaire -> 117
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13076 [N15W60] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13078 [S23W32] became less compact as the main penumbral area expanded and split into smaller penumbrae. The region still has several magnetic delta structures and could produce another major flare. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 01:42, C1.5 @ 02:32, C1.1 @ 05:37, C1.1 @ 18:24 UT
Region 13079 [S11W78] decayed significantly losing all penumbra and a large number of spots.
Region 13081 [N10W11] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flare: C1.0 @ 21:11, C1.3 @ 21:22 UT
Region 13082 [N27E37] developed early in the day and decayed after noon. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 13:24, C1.5 @ 16:14, C1.4 @ 17:31, C1.3 @ 20:41 UT
Region 13083 [S25W43] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7776 [N21W62] decayed further and was quiet.
S7778 [S10E35] was quiet and stable.
S7786 [S19E59] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7787 [N35W02] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7789 [N13W25] was quiet and stable.
New region S7790 [N12E32] emerged with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 20 aoĂ»t 2022, 03:49

5 région(s) active(s) RA 3078 , 3081 , 3082 , 3083 , 3084 et 24 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 96 / 18 observatoires
NOAA -> 74
SWPC -> 81
Flux solaire -> 117
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13078 [S24W44] decayed significantly losing much of its penumbral and most of its umbral area. There is still significant polarity intermixing and further M flares are possible. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 02:52, C1.9 @ 08:09, C1.7 @ 09:20, C1.1 @ 15:53, C1.4 @ 16:57, C1.5 @ 18:14 UT
Region 13081 [N10W25] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13082 [N27E26] was quiet and stable.
Region 13083 [S26W53] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
New region 13084 [S09E18] emerged on August 14 and was numbered by SWPC 4 days later.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7766 [S10W27] reemerged with tiny spots.
S7786 [S19E47] was quiet and stable.
S7787 [N36W13] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7790 [N12E18] was quiet and stable.
New region S7792 [N30E53] emerged with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 21 aoĂ»t 2022, 03:44

4 région(s) active(s) RA 3078 , 3081 , 3082 , 3084 et 16 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 88 / 17 observatoires
NOAA -> 56
SWPC -> 62
Flux solaire -> 102
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13078 [S23W59] decayed quickly leaving no penumbra on negative polarity spots and only rudimentary penumbra on positive polarity spots. The region has been mostly quiet since late on August 19. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 03:22, C1.8 @ 11:49, C1.2 @ 15:22, C1.6/1N @ 20:16 UT
Region 13081 [N10W39] decayed slowly with the main umbra fragmenting into smaller umbrae. C1 flare: C1.9 @ 09:01, C1.4 @ 22:40 UT
Region 13082 [N27E10] was quiet and stable.
Region 13083 [S25W67] decayed slowly with only tiny spots remaining late in the day.
Region 13084 [S09E06] decayed slowly and quietly.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7786 [S19E33] was quiet and stable.
S7790 [N12E05] developed slowly and quietly.
New region S7794 [S19E06] emerged with many tiny spots.
New region S7795 [N18W09] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7796 [N14E16] emerged with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 22 aoĂ»t 2022, 03:42

4 région(s) active(s) RA 3081 , 3082 , 3084 , 3085 et 16 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 61 / 20 observatoires
NOAA -> 56
SWPC -> 62
Flux solaire -> 97
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13078 [S23W72] decayed quickly and had only tiny positive polarity spots remaining by the end of the day.
Region 13081 [N10W53] was quiet and stable.
Region 13082 [N27W02] was quiet and stable.
Region 13084 [S09W08] decayed slowly and quietly.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7786 [S20E21] developed slowly and quietly.
S7790 [N13W07] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7794 [S18W07] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S7798 [N30E28] emerged with a few spots.
New region S7799 [S12W02] was split off from AR 13084 as more flux emerged and several spots formed.
New region S7800 [N05E03] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7801 [S23W20] was observed with a tiny spot in an old plage area.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 23 aoĂ»t 2022, 04:34

3 région(s) active(s) RA 3081 , 3082 , 3085 et 14 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 76 / 17 observatoires
NOAA -> 44
SWPC -> 48
Flux solaire -> 103
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13081 [N10W67] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13082 [N28W15] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13084 [S09W22] developed slowly and quietly.
New region 13085 [N30E15] emerged on August 20 and was numbered by SWPC the next day. The region is developing fairly quickly and could soon become capable of M class flaring. C1 flare: C1.1 @ 20:11 UT.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7786 [S20E09] was quiet and stable.
S7794 [S18W21] was quiet and stable.
S7799 [S12W15] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S7802 [S22E69] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7803 [N20E66] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7804 [N28E49] emerged with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 24 aoĂ»t 2022, 04:35

3 région(s) active(s) RA 3085 , 3086 , 3087 et 22 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 58 / 24 observatoires
NOAA -> 52
SWPC -> 57
Flux solaire -> 101
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13081 [N10W80] decayed rapidly losing all mature penumbra as the main penumbra fragmented into several small penumbrae.
Region 13082 [N28W23] decayed slowly and lost the leader spots.
Region 13084 [S10W35] decayed slowly and quietly. C1 flare: C1.2 @ 17:36 UT.
Region 13085 [N30E02] developed further and matured towards the end of the day. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 05:04, C1.5 @ 06:36, C1.7 @ 07:00, C1.1 @ 07:31, C1.2 @ 09:29, C1.4 @ 12:03, C1.2 @ 18:20, C1.6 @ 18:48 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7799 [S12W29] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7802 [S22E57] developed slowly and quietly.
S7803 [N21E55] was quiet and stable.
New region S7805 [S15W73] emerged with a small spot.
New region S7806 [N08E38] emerged as a bipolar group before noon, then decayed leaving only a tiny spot at the end of the day.
New region S7807 [S15E79] rotated into view with a single mature spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 25 aoĂ»t 2022, 04:41

3 région(s) active(s) RA 3085 , 3086 , 3087 et 16 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 61 / 22 observatoires
NOAA -> 46
SWPC -> 53
Flux solaire -> 108
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13082 [N27W41] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13085 [N30W09] matured and was quiet.
New region 13086 [S22E42] emerged on August 21 and was numbered by SPWC 2 days later as slow development continued. C1 flare: C1.3 @ 02:11 UT
New region 13087 [S15E66] rotated into view on August 22 and received its NOAA number the following day.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7786 [S17W15] reemerged with tiny spots.
S7799 [S11W41] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7803 [N22E42] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S7808 [N17E84] rotated partly into view with a single mature spot
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 26 aoĂ»t 2022, 03:51

6 région(s) active(s) RA 3085 , 3086 , 3087 , 3088 , 3089 , 3090 et 34 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 98 / 23 observatoires
NOAA -> 94
SWPC -> 103
Flux solaire -> 118
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13085 [N30W22] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13086 [S23E28] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 13087 [S15E66] developed slowly and quietly.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7803 [N20E28] was quiet and stable.
S7808 [N17E73] was quiet and stable.
New region S7809 [S28W32] emerged as a reversed polarities region and developed very quickly. The region could soon become capable of producing M class flares.
New region S7810 [S23E70] rotated into view with several spots. C flares are possible.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 27 aoĂ»t 2022, 03:56

5 région(s) active(s) RA 3085 , 3086 , 3087 , 3088 , 3089 et 38 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 102 / 13 observatoires
NOAA -> 88
SWPC -> 97
Flux solaire -> 119
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13085 [N30W37] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13086 [S23E14] matured and was quiet.
Region 13087 [S14E39] was quiet and stable.
New region 13088 [S28W46] emerged on August 24 and continued to develop rapidly on August 25 when the group was numbered by SWPC. The region is currently not very complex magnetically, however, the rapid development spurred one M and multiple C flares. A major flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 09:36, C1.4 @ 11:52, C1.7 @ 13:56, C1.5 @ 14:26, C1.9 @ 17:21 UT
New region 13089 [S22E58] emerged on August 24 and developed quickly on August 25 as the region was assigned its NOAA number. The region had a magnetic delta at its center during most of the day, however, this disappeared. Significant polarity intermixing is still present and further M class flares are possible. Early on August 26 the magnetic delta is back. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 02:33, C1.3 @ 04:04, C1.4 @ 07:04, C1.2 @ 09:28, C1.4 @ 12:09, C1.7 @ 15:16, C1.5 @ 17:41, C1.4 @ 21:15 UT
New region 13090 [N16E62] rotated into view on August 23 and was numbered 2 days later by SWPC as the region began to decay. The easternmost spot could be a separate region.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7803 [N20E15] was quiet and stable.
New region S7811 [N13E13] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7812 [N35W37] emerged with a tiny spot to the north of AR 13085.
New region S7813 [N03E01] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7814 [N34E20] emerged with tiny spots.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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