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Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Phénomènes Climatiques en rapport avec le Soleil. Le cycle 24 devrait être faible, voici une question majeure sur l'influence climatique de notre prochaine decennie.

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 09 mai 2022, 04:35

5 région(s) active(s) RA 3001 , 3004 , 3005 , 3006 , 3007 et 39 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 75 / 19 observatoires
NOAA -> 89
SWPC -> 98
Flux solaire -> 119
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13001 [S32W65] was quiet and stable.
Region 13004 [S13W57] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. There is still a weak magnetic delta in the southeastern part of the main penumbra and a major flare is still possible.
Region 13006 [S30E31] gained area and still has a magnetic delta in a small central penumbra. An M class flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 07:39 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7542 [S15W45] was quiet and stable.
S7550 [S18W29] was quiet and stable.
S7551 [N28W01] was quiet and stable.
New region S7552 [S24E79] rotated into view before noon, this is probably old AR 12991. C1 flares: C1.4@ 13:07 UT (this flare was incorrectly attributed to AR 13004 by SWPC). The region produced a C6.3 flare at 03:53 on May 8.
New region S7553 [N17W62] emerged with several spots late in the day.
New region S7554 [S29E02] emerged with a tiny spots.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 10 mai 2022, 03:31

5 région(s) active(s) RA 3001 , 3004 , 3005 , 3006 , 3007 et 21 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 72 / 22 observatoires
NOAA -> 89
SWPC -> 98
Flux solaire -> 117
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13001 [S32W79] was quiet and stable.
Region 13004 [S13W71] decayed further and was mostly quiet. The region lost the magnetic delta but could still produce an M class flare. C1 flares: C1.7 @ 00:41, C1.8 @ 07:47, C1.0 @ 09:06 UT
Region 13006 [S30E18] was mostly quiet and stable. There is still a magnetic delta within the largest penumbra and an M class flare is possible.
New region 13007 [S24E72] rotated partly into view on May 7 with the trailing spots becoming visible on May 8 when the region was numbered by SWPC. The region could produce a minor M class flare.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7553 [N17W79] developed early in the day, then began to decay. Note that SWPC thinks this AR 13005, a region that was located 3 degrees further north.
New region S7555 [N02E32] emerged with tiny spots and is likely an SC24 group.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 11 mai 2022, 03:43

2 région(s) active(s) RA 3006 , 3007 et 42 TS observées
WDC Silso -> -- / -- observatoires ( site du SIDC en panne )
NOAA -> 62
SWPC -> 68
Flux solaire -> 116
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Region 13004 [S13W83] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 20:57 UT (this flare was incorrectly attributed to AR 13007 by SWPC).
Region 13006 [S30E04] developed slowly with many small spots appearing. The magnetic delta, which has been present since the region rotated into view, strengthened. The region could produce a major flare. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 18:03, C1.0 @ 19:54, C1.2 @ 21:26 UT
Region 13007 [S23E58] was somewhat active and could produce a minor M class flare. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 17:41 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7542 [S16W73] reemerged with a tiny spot.
S7551 [N27W13] reemerged with tiny spots.
New region S7556 [N23E09] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.
New region S7557 [S18E49] emerged with tiny spots.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 12 mai 2022, 03:33

4 région(s) active(s) RA 3006 , 3007 , 3008 , 3009 et 44 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 79 / 16 observatoires
NOAA -> 84
SWPC -> 92
Flux solaire -> 133
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13004 [S13W83] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 20:57 UT (this flare was incorrectly attributed to AR 13007 by SWPC).
Region 13006 [S30E04] developed slowly with many small spots appearing. The magnetic delta, which has been present since the region rotated into view, strengthened. The region could produce a major flare. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 18:03, C1.0 @ 19:54, C1.2 @ 21:26 UT
Region 13007 [S23E58] was somewhat active and could produce a minor M class flare. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 17:41 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7542 [S16W73] reemerged with a tiny spot.
S7551 [N27W13] reemerged with tiny spots.
New region S7556 [N23E09] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.
New region S7557 [S18E49] emerged with tiny spots.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 13 mai 2022, 03:26

5 région(s) active(s) RA 3006 , 3007 , 3008 , 3009 , 3010 et 62 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 111 / 20 observatoires
NOAA -> 112
SWPC -> 123
Flux solaire -> 133

Image

Region 13006 [S31W19] decayed and lost its magnetic delta. There's still a chance of an M class flare. C1 flares: UT
Region 13007 [S23E31] developed a significant magnetic delta inside a trailing intermediate penumbra. A major flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 00:24, C1.5 @ 02:26, C1.9 @ 08:21, C1.6 @ 09:00, C1.7 @ 12:05 UT
New region 13008 [N16E34] emerged on May 10 and was numbered the next day by SWPC as it developed slowly.
New region 13009 [N14W28] emerged before noon with several spots.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
New region S7559 [S28E69] rotated into view early in the day with tiny spots.
New region S7561 [N21E07] emerged before noon, the decayed slowly.
New region S7563 [S13E84] rotated partly into view with a small spot. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 11:09 UT
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 14 mai 2022, 03:30

6 région(s) active(s) RA 3006 , 3007 , 3008 , 3010 , 3011, 3012 et 60 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 119 / 15 observatoires
NOAA -> 120
SWPC -> 132
Flux solaire -> 150
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13006 [S30W33] has many small spots spread over a large area, however, none of them have mature penumbra. Actually the region could be splitting into 2 separate regions. Further C class flaring is likely and there is a chance for a minor M class flare as well. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 05:37, C1.2 @ 10:10, C1.7 @ 15:11 UT
Region 13007 [S23E18] has many spots and currently only a small magnetic delta. An M class flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 13:02 UT
Region 13008 [N16E20] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 13009 [N14W37]decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 13010 [S14E76] rotated partly into view on May 11 and was numbered the next day by SWPC as all spots became visible. There may be a magnetic delta in the southeasternmost penumbra, however, we will have to wait until that spot rotates into better view to be certain. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 17:59 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7557 [S17E10] reemerged with several spots.
S7559 [S28E57] was quiet and stable.
New region S7564 [S13W01] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7565 [N17E75] rotated into view with tiny spots.
New region S7566 [N35W08] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7567 [N19E12] emerged with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 15 mai 2022, 04:18

5 région(s) active(s) RA 3006 , 3007 , 3010 , 3011, 3013 et 55 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 130 / 21 observatoires
NOAA -> 105
SWPC -> 116
Flux solaire -> 153
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13006 [S30W47] decayed losing many small spots and was mostly inactive.
Region 13007 [S22E07] is slowly becoming better organized. Area increased while some small spots disappeared. The magnetic delta disappeared as well and only small C flares were produced. The region has M class flare potential. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 07:42 UT
Region 13008 [N17E08] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13009 [N16W50] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13010 [S14E64] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.7 at 06:10 UT
New region 13011 [N18E61] rotated into view on May 12 and was numbered the next day by SWPC.
New region 13012 [S17W04] saw new flux emerge on May 12 with SWPC numbering the region the following day as the region began to decay.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7559 [S28E43] was quiet and stable.
New region S7568 [N15E28] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.
New region S7569 [N13E79] rotated into view with several spots. The region produced several C flares and may be capable of M class flaring.
New region S7570 [N22E81] rotated into view with tiny spots.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 16 mai 2022, 03:43

7 région(s) active(s) RA 3006 , 3007 , 3010 , 3011, 3013 , 301 , 3015 et 59 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 144 / 21 observatoires
NOAA -> 129
SWPC -> 142
Flux solaire -> 154

Image

Region 13006 [S29W62] decayed further and could become spotless before rotating out of view. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 12:19 UT
Region 13007 [S22W08] lost area in the trailing spot section while area increased in the leading spot section. The region gained spots and remained mostly quiet. Despite the high number of spots there is only weak polarity intermixing near the center of the region. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 05:15 UT
Region 13008 [N16W06] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13010 [S14E49] decayed as all but one of the larger spots lost mature penumbra and fragmented into smaller spots.
Region 13011 [N17E50] was quiet and stable. There seems to be some confusion internally at SWPC about this region as the one responsible for flare analysis assigns flares in AR S7569 to AR 13011.
New region 13013 [S28E29] was first observed with spots on May 11 with SWPC numbering the region 3 days later as slow development occurred.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7568 [N13E13] was quiet and stable.
S7569 [N13E67] produced several C flares and appeared to be decaying slowly. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 03:59, C1.8 @ 14:27 UT
S7570 [N22E68] was mostly quiet and stable.
New region S7571 [N01W28] emerged with tiny spots. This is an SC24 group.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 17 mai 2022, 03:49

8 région(s) active(s) RA, 3007 , 3010 , 3011, 3013 , 3014 , 3015 , 3016 , 3017 et 93 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 152 / 15 observatoires
NOAA -> 173
SWPC -> 190
Flux solaire -> 162
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13006 [S30W73] decayed further and was mostly quiet.
Region 13007 [S22W20] lost area and remained relatively simple structured magnetically. The region was mostly quiet despite having many spots. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 03:24, C1.5 @ 08:01 UT
Region 13008 [N17W18] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13010 [S16E37] decayed slowly and has only tiny spots and small spots with rudimentary penumbra.
Region 13011 [N17E37] was quiet and stable.
Region 13013 [S27E16] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 13014 [N22E53] rotated into view on May 13 and was numbered by SWPC 2 days later as the region was developing slowly.
New region 13015 [N13E54] rotated into view on May 13 and was quiet as the region was numbered by SWPC 2 days later. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 19:52, C1.4 @ 20:49 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7568 [N14E01] was quiet and stable.
New region S7572 [S17E84] rotated into view with a single spot.
New region S7573 [N05E24] emerged with a tiny spot and is likely an SC24 group.
New region S7574 [N13E78] rotated into view with small spots. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 12:17, C1.4 @ 13:36 UT
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 18 mai 2022, 05:27

8 région(s) active(s) RA, 3007 , 3010 , 3011 , 3014 , 3015 , 3016 , 3017 , 3018 et 73 TS observées
WDC Silso -> -- / -- observatoires ( site hors ligne )
NOAA -> 153
SWPC -> 168
Flux solaire -> 171
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Region 13006 [S34W80] rotated partly out of view while slowly decaying.
Region 13007 [S22W34] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13008 [N16W35] was quiet and stable.
Region 13010 [S17E22] decayed slowly losing spots and area.
Region 13011 [N17E24] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13013 [S27E03] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13014 [N21E42] developed quickly during the latter half of the day and gained a magnetic delta in the main penumbra. M class flaring is likely if the current development continues. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 07:50 UT
Region 13015 [N13E39] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.7 @ 09:40, C1.8 @ 19:41 UT
New region 13016 [S18E73] rotated into view on May 15 with SWPC numbering the region the following day. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 00:50, C1.6 @ 04:02, C1.8 @ 04:42 UT
New region 13017 [N13E66] rotated into view on May 15 and received its NOAA number the next day. The group is unimpressive, yet managed to produce an M class flare.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7568 [N13W12] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S7575 [S11E68] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7576 [N31W01] emerged with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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