Suite a une mise a jour critique, les forums sont en lecture seule. Les discussions continuent sur les reseaux sociaux. Vous etes invites et vous pouvez nous rejoindre sur

Facebook : Debats sur les groupes suivants : Sciences, Suivi Solaire, et MeteoNet

Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Phénomènes Climatiques en rapport avec le Soleil. Le cycle 24 devrait être faible, voici une question majeure sur l'influence climatique de notre prochaine decennie.

Modérateurs :cartesien66, williams

Verrouillé
Avatar du membre
cartesien66
Administrateur
Administrateur
Messages :16599
Enregistré le :26 nov. 2011, 11:53
Localisation :Contreforts du Canigou
Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 30 avr. 2022, 04:00

7 région(s) active(s) RA 2994 , 2995 , 2997 , 2999 , 3000 , 3001, 3003 et 20 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 100 / 19 observatoires
NOAA -> 90
SWPC -> 99
Flux solaire -> 124
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 12993 [N20W83] was quiet and stable as it rotated partly out of view.
Region 12994 [N13W80] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 01:37, C1.2 @ 12:10, C1.3 @ 19:46, C1.2 @ 23:52 UT
Region 12995 [N14W38] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.7 @ 05:06, C1.0 @ 07:55, C1.1 @ 19:11, C1.0 @ 20:32 UT
Region 12997 [N12W06] decayed slowly and was quiet.
Region 12998 [S19E11] was quiet and stable. Note that SWPC has assigned a new number (12999) to the region due to the faulty initial location of AR 12998. For data consistency the original number is used in this report.
Region 13000 [S17E45] was quiet and stable.
Region 13001 [S31E49] was quiet and stable.
New region 13002 [N14E26] emerged on April 26 and was numbered by SWPC 2 days later as the region was slowly decaying.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7510 [N24W13] was quiet and stable.
S7518 [S09E29] was quiet and stable.
S7525 [N31E51] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7529 [S15E67] was quiet and stable.
New region S7532 [S23E65] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7533 [S35W09] emerged with tiny spots.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

Image

Avatar du membre
cartesien66
Administrateur
Administrateur
Messages :16599
Enregistré le :26 nov. 2011, 11:53
Localisation :Contreforts du Canigou

Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 01 mai 2022, 04:01

4 région(s) active(s) RA 2995 , 2997 , 2999 , 3001 et 10 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 50 / 13 observatoires
NOAA -> 50
SWPC -> 55
Flux solaire -> 120
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 12995 [N14W65] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 06:57 UT
Region 12997 [N12W22] decayed in the trailing spots section and was quiet.
Region 12998 [S19W01] gained tiny spots and was quiet. Note that SWPC has assigned a new number (12999) to the region due to the faulty initial location of AR 12998. For data consistency the original number is used in this report.
Region 13000 [S17E32] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13001 [S32E37] was quiet and stable.
New region 13003 [S23E51] emerged on April 28 and was numbered the next day by SWPC.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7518 [S09E18] was quiet and stable.
S7521 [S25W22] reemerged with tiny spots.
S7525 [N30E40] was quiet and stable.
S7526 [S18E22] reemerged with tiny spots.
S7529 [S15E55] was quiet and stable.
( 77 / 94.2 )
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

Image

Avatar du membre
cartesien66
Administrateur
Administrateur
Messages :16599
Enregistré le :26 nov. 2011, 11:53
Localisation :Contreforts du Canigou

Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 02 mai 2022, 04:19

3 région(s) active(s) RA 2995 , 2999 , 3001 et 6 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 37 / 17 observatoires
NOAA -> 36
SWPC -> 40
Flux solaire -> 106
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 12995 [N15W78] was quiet and stable.
Region 12997 [N12W33] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 04:15 UT (the location of this flare is uncertain as there was simultaneous activity in AR 12994)
Region 12998 [S19W13] was quiet and stable. Note that SWPC has assigned a new number (12999) to the region due to the faulty initial location of AR 12998. For data consistency the original number is used in this report.
Region 13001 [S32E24] was quiet and stable.
Region 13003 [S23E39] decayed slowly and quietly.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7518 [S11E06] was quiet and stable.
S7525 [N31E27] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7526 [S17E08] was quiet and stable.
S7529 [S16E39] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S7534 [N18E18] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.

AR 12994 was very active behind the northwest limb producing 4 M and 1 X class flares.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

Image

Avatar du membre
cartesien66
Administrateur
Administrateur
Messages :16599
Enregistré le :26 nov. 2011, 11:53
Localisation :Contreforts du Canigou

Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 02 mai 2022, 04:27

Moyennes provisoires avril 2022
WDC silso -> 84.1
NOAA SSN -> 79.2
Star SDO MSN 1k -> 91.1
Flux solaire -> 130.8
Index Ap -> 12
Eruption solaire -> 253 C : 29 M et 3 X
vent solaire -> max 758 km/s mini 315 km/s

Image
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

Image

Avatar du membre
cartesien66
Administrateur
Administrateur
Messages :16599
Enregistré le :26 nov. 2011, 11:53
Localisation :Contreforts du Canigou

Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 03 mai 2022, 03:25

5 région(s) active(s) RA 2997 , 2999 , 3001 , 3004 , 3005 et 19 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 30 / 20 observatoires
NOAA -> 69
SWPC -> 76
Flux solaire -> 112
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 12997 [N11W47] was quiet and stable.
Region 12998 [S20W27] was quiet and stable. Note that SWPC has assigned a new number (12999) to the region due to the faulty initial location of AR 12998. For data consistency the original number is used in this report.
Region 13000 [S17E06] reemerged with tiny spots.
Region 13001 [S32E11] was quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7518 [S11W08] was quiet and stable.
S7521 [S28W42] reemerged with tiny spots.
S7529 [S16E28] was quiet and stable.
S7534 [N17E01] was quiet and stable.
New region S7535 [N22E17] emerged with a tiny spot.

AR 12994 produced a few flares from well behind the northwest limb. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 08:16, C1.1 @ 15:10, C1.7 @ 18:32 UT
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

Image

Avatar du membre
cartesien66
Administrateur
Administrateur
Messages :16599
Enregistré le :26 nov. 2011, 11:53
Localisation :Contreforts du Canigou

Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 04 mai 2022, 03:27

3 région(s) active(s) RA 2999 , 3001 , 3004 et 22 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 88 / 21 observatoires
NOAA -> 52
SWPC -> 57
Flux solaire -> 114
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 12997 [N12W58] was quiet and stable.
Region 12998 [S20W40] was quiet and stable. Note that SWPC assigned a new number (12999) to the region due to the faulty initial location of AR 12998. For data consistency the original number is used in this report.
Region 13000 [S17W08] was quiet and stable.
Region 13001 [S32W00] was quiet and stable.
New region 13004 [S16E12] was first observed with spots on April 27. New flux emerged on May 2 (when it was numbered by SWPC) and the region quickly became the most spot rich on the visible disk.
New region 13005 [N20E06] emerged with a tiny spot on May 1 and developed slowly on May 2 when the region was numbered by SWPC.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7534 [N18W09] was quiet and stable.
New region S7538 [S19E40] emerged with several spots.
New region S7539 [S27E83] rotated partly into view with small spots. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 18:24 UT. This region or another trailing region may be capable of M class flaring.
New region S7540 [S13E82] rotated into view with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

Image

Avatar du membre
cartesien66
Administrateur
Administrateur
Messages :16599
Enregistré le :26 nov. 2011, 11:53
Localisation :Contreforts du Canigou

Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 05 mai 2022, 03:55

4 région(s) active(s) RA 2999 , 3001 , 3004 , 3006 et 24 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 80 / 16 observatoires
NOAA -> 64
SWPC -> 70
Flux solaire -> 130
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 12997 [N12W74] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12998 [S20W52] was quiet and stable. Note that SWPC assigned a new number (12999) to the region due to the faulty initial location of AR 12998. For data consistency the original number is used in this report.
Region 13000 [S18W20] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13001 [S32W12] was quiet and stable.
Region 13004 [S15W03] developed further and has a small magnetic delta inside an intermediate penumbra. M class flaring is possible. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 07:28, C1.6 @ 15:46 UT. The C2 flare at 21:11 may have been associated with a CME, however, analysis of this awaits the availability of relevant LASCO imagery.
Region 13005 [N19W08] decayed slowly and quietly.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7518 [S08W39] reemerged with tiny spots.
S7534 [N18W24] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7538 [S19E28] was quiet and stable.
S7539 [S29E79] continued to rotate into view. The region has polarity intermixing, however, it is uncertain if it is the source of recent M and X flares, or if there is another region trailing it. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 12:03, C1.5 @ 18:53 UT. An M5.3 flare was recorded at 00:19 UT on May 4.

Minor update added at 17:20 UT: AR 13004 has developed quickly and could produce further major flares, including X class events. It's now a compact region with a magnetic delta at its center. AR S7539 continues to produce M flares despite its relatively small area. There appears to be a magnetic delta inside the largest penumbra, and this is probable the cause of the instability of the region.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

Image

Avatar du membre
cartesien66
Administrateur
Administrateur
Messages :16599
Enregistré le :26 nov. 2011, 11:53
Localisation :Contreforts du Canigou

Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 06 mai 2022, 04:33

5 région(s) active(s) RA 2999 , 3001 , 3003 , 3004 , 3006 et 35 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 76 / 16 observatoires
NOAA -> 85
SWPC -> 94
Flux solaire -> 120
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 12998 [S20W66] was quiet and stable. Note that SWPC assigned a new number (12999) to the region due to the faulty initial location of AR 12998. For data consistency the original number is used in this report.
Region 13001 [S31W27] was quiet and stable.
Region 13004 [S14W17] developed quickly and has a fairly strong magnetic delta with the leading penumbra. Major flares, including X class flares, are possible. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 03:19, C1.4 @ 03:47, C1.3 @ 04:32, C1.3 @ 06:47, C1.4 @ 22:09 UT
Region 13005 [N20W22] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 13006 [S25E68] rotated into view on May 2 and was numbered 2 days later by SWPC. The region appears to be in slow decay but is still capable of producing occasional M class flares.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
New region S7541 [S23W12] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7542 [S17W03] emerged early in the day, then decayed slowly.
New region S7543 [N32W09] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7544 [S30W39] emerged with a tiny spot.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

Image

Avatar du membre
cartesien66
Administrateur
Administrateur
Messages :16599
Enregistré le :26 nov. 2011, 11:53
Localisation :Contreforts du Canigou

Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 07 mai 2022, 03:39

3 région(s) active(s) RA 3001 , 3004 , 3006 et 34 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 79 / 18 observatoires
NOAA -> 64
SWPC -> 70
Flux solaire -> 119
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 12998 [S20W79] was quiet and stable. Note that SWPC assigned a new number (12999) to the region due to the faulty initial location of AR 12998. For data consistency the original number is used in this report.
Region 13001 [S31W39] was quiet and stable.
Region 13004 [S14W30] developed further in the leading penumbra, however, some decay was observed in the trailing spot section. There is still an elongated magnetic delta in the southeastern part of the largest penumbra, positive polarity umbrae and penumbra are sandwiched between negative polarity areas. A major flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.7 @ 00:15, C1.9 @ 06:46, C1.7 @ 10:00, C1.8 @ 13:04, C1.4 @ 16:12, C1.4 @ 18:04, C1.7 @ 19:09, C1.7 @ 23:37 UT
Region 13006 [S30E56] developed slowly and became less active. The main penumbra contains opposite polarity umbrae and this delta is likely the cause of most flares from this region. Another major flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 07:46, C1.3 @ 18:32 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7518 [S09W61] reemerged with a tiny spot.
S7542 [S15W18] was quiet and stable.
New region S7545 [S21W07] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7546 [S25E18] was observed with tiny spots.
New region S7547 [S19W62] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7548 [S18E33] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7549 [N25E01] emerged with tiny spots.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

Image

Avatar du membre
cartesien66
Administrateur
Administrateur
Messages :16599
Enregistré le :26 nov. 2011, 11:53
Localisation :Contreforts du Canigou

Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 1er trimestre

Message par cartesien66 » 08 mai 2022, 03:40

3 région(s) active(s) RA 3001 , 3004 , 3006 et 36 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 66 / 14 observatoires
NOAA -> 66
SWPC -> 73
Flux solaire -> 118
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13001 [S32W52] was quiet and stable.
Region 13004 [S13W43] decayed as the magnetic delta in the southeastern part of the main penumbra became less complex and several spots disappeared. A major flare is still possible. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 02:33, C1.5 @ 15:17, C1.2 @ 19:41, C1.1 @ 22:24, C1.1 @ 23:53 UT
Region 13006 [S30E56] gained small spots, however, the main penumbra lost mature penumbra, and although there is still a magnetic delta within the small remaining penumbra, flare activity has decreased. An M class flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.4 @ 08:35, C1.7 @ 10:24, C1.3 @ 11:44, C1.4 @ 12:19, C1.6 @ 20:34, C1.2 @ 21:56 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7542 [S16W30] was quiet and stable.
New region S7550 [S18W15] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7551 [N27E11] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

Image

Verrouillé

Retourner vers « Effets de l'activité solaire »