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Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Phénomènes Climatiques en rapport avec le Soleil. Le cycle 24 devrait être faible, voici une question majeure sur l'influence climatique de notre prochaine decennie.

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 05 oct. 2022, 03:46

7 région(s) active(s) RA 3110 , 3111, 3112 , 3113 , 3115 , 3116 , 3117 et 83 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 161 / 17 observatoires
NOAA -> 153
SWPC -> 168
Flux solaire -> 152
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

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Region 13110 [N18W65] decayed quickly during the latter half of the day. A small magnetic delta remains at the center of the region and further M class flares are possible. The negative polarity spots are slowly rotating westward compared to the positive polarity spots.
Region 13111 [N27W07] was quiet and stable.
Region 13112 [N19E38] was quiet and stable. Note that SWPC include the spots from AR S7901 in this region.
Region 13113 [N16W56] decayed in the trailing spot section while most of the leader spots merged into largest penumbra.
Region 13114 [S33E01] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 13115 [S18E02] emerged on October 1 and was numbered by SPWC 2 days later. The region developed quickly on October 3 and has minor polarity intermixing.
New region 13116 [N30E55] rotated into view on October 1 and received its NOAA number 2 days later as slow development continued.
New region 13117 [S11E18] emerged on October 2 with SWPC numbering the region the next day.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7901 [N22E61] decayed in the trailing spot section with some penumbrae splitting into smaller parts. The leading spot section is still magnetically complex with multiple magnetic deltas. A major flare is possible.
S7902 [N28E44] was quiet and stable.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 06 oct. 2022, 03:28

7 région(s) active(s) RA 3110 , 3111, 3112 , 3113 , 3115 , 3116 , 3117 et 82 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 140 / 14 observatoires
NOAA -> 152
SWPC -> 167
Flux solaire -> 152
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13110 [N18W79] decayed further and became gradually less active. There is a chance of an M class flare while the region is near the northwest limb. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 06:47, C1.6 @ 19:46 UT
Region 13111 [N27W20] was quiet and stable.
Region 13112 [N20E24] developed slowly and was quiet. A small penumbra to the north of the main penumbra has spots of both polarities. Note that SWPC include the spots from AR S7901 in this region. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 09:09 UT
Region 13113 [N17W71] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13114 [S32W10] was quiet and stable.
Region 13115 [S18W10] was quiet and stable.
Region 13116 [N29E39] was quiet and stable.
Region 13117 [S11E03] decayed slowly and quietly.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7901 [N22E34] produced several C flares, none of which were impressive. The leading spot section is still magnetically complex with multiple magnetic deltas. A major flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 05:32, C1.5 @ 19:36 , C1.4 @ 22:56 UT
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 07 oct. 2022, 04:04

6 région(s) active(s) RA 3111, 3112 , 3115 , 3116 , 3117 , 3118 et 79 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 157 / 22 observatoires
NOAA -> 139
SWPC -> 153
Flux solaire -> 156
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

Image

Region 13111 [N27W33] was quiet and stable.
Region 13112 [N20E11] was mostly quiet and stable. Note that SWPC include the spots from AR S7901 in this region.
Region 13113 [N17W84] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13115 [S18W23] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13116 [N30E28] developed gaining spots and area. C flares are possible.
Region 13117 [S11W10] was quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7901 [N22E34] produced several C flares, none of which were impressive. The leading spot section is still magnetically complex with multiple magnetic deltas. A major flare is possible. C1.3 @ 10:40 UT
S7902 [N28E21] reemerged with several spots.
New region S7909 [N13E02] emerged before noon with a couple of spots, then decayed slowly.
New region S7910 [N09E76] rotated into view and produced a C flare.
New region S7911 [S15W51] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7912 [N17E53] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.
It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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Re: Suivi , évolution de l'activité solaire 2022 , 2 nd semestre

Message par cartesien66 » 08 oct. 2022, 04:07

8 région(s) active(s) RA 3111, 3112 , 3115 , 3116 , 3117 , 3118 , 3119 , 3120 et 66 TS observées
WDC Silso -> 159 / 21 observatoires
NOAA -> 146
SWPC -> 161
Flux solaire -> 160
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/rep ... eport.html

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It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.
Richard P. Feynman

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